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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 17 October 2014
Cheltenham to welcome a new master
We are at Cheltenham for the 2-day meeting, but todays races look lacking in opportunity for me. The opening novice hurdle race looks between Vicente and Blaklion to me, as this can only be a pipe-opener for Present View en-route to the Paddy Power Handicap Chase here in November. Altho' Blaklion has won recently nd is race-fit, I don't expect VICENTE to arrive here unprepared and on what we've seen of him he looks the better horse. He also has a 5lb advantage on the weights and the odds of 4/1 (avaibable generally) about him for this look tempting.
The 3-mile handicap hurdle at 3:15 is another race that looks interesting as I have a couple from my alert list in this race. They are ON THE BRIDGE and SAMINGARRY.
ON THE BRIDGE looks interesting in that he ran 4th in this race last year off OR139 and he runs off OR137 today. He comes into this race in form and fit and odds of 10/1 look fair. I'm not expecting much from Samingarry as this run is a seasonal pipe-opener before going chasing.
The 3-mile novice chase at 3:50 looks to be a "match" between THE ROMFORD PELE and Highland Retreat. I think it's a big ask of of Highland Retreat to take on THE ROMFORD PELE, even when in-receipt of 15lb, on her chase debut as she'll need to run 135+ to win. She might well end up 150+ but a chase debut at Cheltenham is tough. Odds of 15/8 about THE ROMFORD PELE look interesting.
The amateur riders handicap chase at 5:00 over and extended 3-mile looks a tricky race. The blog went close to finding the winer last year with Handy Andy who was left 6-lengths clear jumping the last before failing to stay up the hill. I have never thought the race-fav Balbriggan is a "proper" 3-mile chaser and I expect his stamina to be exposed today. The one I think may do the winning is THE YOUNG MASTER, as the handicapper has very little to go on (just one race) in allotting him a rating of OR121 and he should be "in-the-van" for most of the race. Odds of 9/1 (Stan James and William Hill) look fair in the circumstances for this 5yo.
I'm not making a selection today, as I want to find one at odds of between 3/1 - 6/1 that I can make a straight "win" wager and, while I VICENTE fits the odds criteria, novice hurdles isn't really my strongpoint.
All the best from Wayward Lad.