This Friday and Saturday sees the return of Jump Racing to Cheltenham. Before that, we have an interesting meeting at Wetherby featuring the Bobby Renton Chase over 2m4f.
Looking at my blogs from this time last year, my selection in the race (No Planning trained by Sue Smith) ran 3rd - however, he justified his entry on my alert by winning next-time-out and on another two occasions before the season was out with his rating going up from OR126 (when running in the Bobby Renton) to OR147. So, you have to accept that some horses are not yet at full fitness and may run a little below what is expected.
I have one alert horse runner today, and that's GETABUZZ in the Class 3 hurdle over 2-mile & 110 yards at 3:25. This trip looks a bit short for Getabuzz and I reckon it's going to be a pipe-opener for the horse. As such, it's a watching brief on this race.
I'd like to get a winner on the board before the weekend, and I'm hoping I can land one today. The 2-mile class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 has only 6-runners, and much will depend on whether the current race-fav Oyster Shell can recapture his form. If he can, then his OR128 rating today looks lenient, as the ground and trip today will suit him. He ran a cracker in March at Ludlow off the same rating he has today and a repeat of that run will see him securing the spoils. This trip looks far too short for Dunowen Point. Un Anjou is consistent, but not good enough on what we've seen and would prefer it to be soft ground. The handicapper seems to have Nikos Extra in his grip after he won a couple this summer (he'd dropped to OR108 from OR135) and his OR122 rating seems fair. Big Generator looks held on his Irish form for Paul Nolan; so that leaves just Toledo Gold. I like the look of Toledo Gold, but his usual rider has been replaced with claimer Stephen Mulqueen who, to be fair, does not inspire confidence. As such, odds of 3/1 about OYSTER SHELL look fair value in what could be a weak race.
I'm on for the win wager:
Wetherby: 2:50 OYSTER SHELL, £15 win @ 3/1 (available generally)
As for the Bobby Renton at 4:00, the race-fav Foundation Man looks vulnerable off OR127, and the 2nd-fav Deciding Moment looks even worse running off OR132. Scotch Warrior lost nothing in defeat LTO to Simply Ned, as that one could turn out to be a Class 1 horse this season. Alderbrook Lad has improved 15lbs on the ratings over hurdles this summer. He looks the fly in the oitment in this if he can convert that improvement to his chase form. Odds of 5/1 (see Bet Victor) look fair, but I'd only be in for a small stake, at most £5.
Wetherby: 4:00 ALDERBROOK LAD, £5 win @ 5/1 ( Bet Victor, BOG)
Both selections ran 2nd and, while Alderbrook Lad was beaten fair & square, Oyster Shell looked like winning this until lack of race-fitness meant he hit the 2nd-last fence hard when under pressure, losing vital momentum.
ReplyDeleteGiven a confident ride by 3lb claimer Jake Greenall up until that point, he looked to me to be the best horse in the race by a long way; as such I'm sure that todays loss will only be money "lent" to the bookies.
Foundation Man has put last seasons jumping issues behind him and finally looks like becoming the horse he promised to be.
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