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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday, 10 October 2014

First selection of the 2014-15 Jumps season

A cracking day's racing today, with the highlight being the Class 2 intermediate chase over 2m5f & 110 yards at Newton Abbot at 3:55pm.  This is a terrific line-up with 5 of the most promising novice chasers we saw last season, all of which are hooping for greater glory this season.

The is a real breath of fresh air!  For the past few years we've been lucky to see promising chasers running in anything other than meaningless affairs before heading for Cheltenham in March - that's if they got there. Finally, trainers seem to have woken up to the fact that horses cannot win races on reputation alone. Let's all hope that this is going to continue.

The race brings together:-
Colour Squadron - perhaps the most talented chaser in training yet to win a chase race;
Taquin Du Seuil - Cheltenham Festival winner when ridden by AP McCoy;
Wonderful Charm - started last season well, but form tailed-off;
Double Ross - a super-consistent novice chaser;
Black Thunder - a faller when yet to be asked a question in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham.

If you take account of the race conditions, which result in Colour Squadron carrying just 10st 8lb receiving 12lb from Double Ross and 16lb from the others in the race, then it is hard not to see Colour Squadron winning this as he has perhaps 10lb in-hand. What worries me about Colour Squadron is that, despite his talent, he hasn't yet won a chase race. I agree that the form he's showed to date equates to a rating or OR152, but there's something about the horse's character that doesn't ring true.

The key to this race is the form of the JLT Novice Chase won by Taquin Du Seuil at the Festival, with Double Ross in 3rd and Wonderful Charm in 5th. I wagered on Taquin De Seuil that day but, realistically, I didn't think it was as good a race winning performance as some judges. If I'm right, then we could be in for a turn-up today.

The horse that I think will do the business in this race is BLACK THUNDER. I've taken 16/1 eachway with Stan James on the way into work this morning.  This horse ran some great races last season, and totally outclassed Shotgun Paddy when they met at Lingfield in December. That for me, is some of the best form in this race. Even when 2nd to Corrin Wood in January, it was a tremendous performance. I thought his rider that day (Daryl Jacob) gave the winner too much rope and allowed him an easy lead and, had he made more use of BLACK THUNDER, then he could have won. The odds of 16/1 are an insult to the horse as he has the beating of Double Ross and Wonderful Charm at the weights and (in my opinion) Taquin Du Seuil. To be honest, I'd hoped to make a handicap killing on this horse as he's currently rated OR149 and I think he's 10lb better than that on what we've seen.

Newton Abbot 3:55 BLACK THUNDER, £10 eachway @ 16/1 with Stan James (quarter-odds a place 1st & 2nd, best odds guaranteed)

I've a couple of additions to the blog. I've entered the blog into the UK 2015 blog awards and voting takes place next month. I've also put a link to the website Racing Bulletin who is kindly offereing a 14-day free trial of their services to those who click thru' the link. I've used Racing Bulletin myself for a couple of years, on and off, and the service is good value in my opinion. There are a number of ratings services around (I also have a link to Formbet) and if you want to use a ratings service it's best to try what's available as see what suits you best. What I like about Racing Bulletin is they also provide a resident tipster (Matt Johnson) alongside the ratings.

Good luck today, and let's hope fortune has guided us to a winning start to the 2014-15 Jumps season.

1 comment:

  1. Well - that was a washout!
    BLACK THUNDER never jumped a fence, and it seems his confidence on that score has been severely dented by the fall he had LTO at Cheltenham. Until he shows he has regained that confidence, he cannot be followed.
    This was very disappointing.


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