Jump racing hots-up at Chepstow

A great day of horseracing today, both jumps and flat with the Cesarewitch - first run in 1839 - taking place at Newmarket. The Cesarewitch is one of the few "heritage" flat handicaps that is holding its own in the modern era.

Over the jumps there are two meetings today at Chepstow and Hexham, and it is the Chepstow meeting which has the better quality racing. The opening couple of races are novice hurdles, and these sort of races are best assessed in the paddock beforehand as you really need to see just how fit the horses are at this time of the season, and then gamble on how well they have been schooled at home.  Trainer Dan Skelton has a great strikerate here with his hurdlers (5 wins from 11 runners) and he has 4 hurdlers entered at Chepstow today, all at decent odds.

The novice chase at 3:20pm looks interesting.
The likely fav is Blaklion who I thought was super-consistent last season when novice hurdling. He stays 3-mile well in that sphere, so today it will all depend on how well he takes to jumping fences. The Paul Nicholls trained As De Mee will be well schooled, but the worry for me with him is that all 3 hurdle wins came going right-handed, and he disappointed when going left-handed. Will he handle left-handed Chepstow?  Racing Pulse was a decent novice hurdler in 2013-14, but missed last season entirely. If he's back to his best he could be a good chaser as his novice hurdle run when beaten by Seeyouatmidmight in Feb14 looks a lot better now than it did then. Regal Encore is also at about the same level as Blaklion over hurdles, whereas Native River looks outclassed. Probably the classiest of these over hurdles is Pearl Swan who is having his first run for Peter Bowen having left the Nicholls stable. He's had his problems, but still has plenty of ability and the change of stable plus going chasing could revive his career. Perhaps the value in the race is proven chaser COCKTAILS AT DAWN who is only having to concede 8lb for being a chase winner and, if he runs to the level of his LTO win at Sandown in April, he will take a lot of beating; odds of 5/1 look generous to me for this Nicky Henderson trained novice.

There are a couple of handicap hurdles but they look very competitve, so I'll give them a miss and instead move on to the 3-mile Class 2 handicap chase at 5:05pm which looks a cracker.

The 11/4 fav is Sausalito Sunrise but those odds look no value based on his novice form of last season, and OR144 is about his level in my opinion; and it will take a horse running about 5lb+ above their rating to win this. Cowards Close (on my alert list) is one such horse who looks capable of running to that level and more. A safe jumper and resolute galloper, he may prefer some give in the ground. Audacious Plan improved with every run as a novice chaser last season, but he may want longer than 3-mile to show his best as he's generally one-paced at the business end. Drop Out Joe was unlucky to bump into a rejuvenated Wayward Prince last season, denying him a win in the valuable "Grimthorpe" at Doncaster. However, his run at Aintree in May suggests that he can defy this OR133 rating on todays ground, especially if he's  improved his jumping. At OR136, Standing Ovation needs respite from the handicapper, as does Garrahalish.  Whereas The Romford Pele (on my alert list), who will likely need todays run after being off the track 358-days, and also seems to prefer small fields of under 10-runners.  Another off my alert list in the race is Sego Success, who has stamina a-plenty and will come into his own when we get softer ground later in the season. Even so, he looks well handicapped, and meets Doing Fine on 4lb better terms than when he finished in front of his at Cheltenham in March. Handy Andy always runs his race, but OR125 has him at his level. The 10lb rise for Buachaill Alainn looks too much for this win LTO.  This trip looks beyond Oscar Fortune and OR132 looks a tad too high as well. Terminal hasn't won since he was a novice chaser (ran in the RSA Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival won by Lord Windermere in 2013), ans appears to have lost interest. For me, the value in the race lies with DROP OUT JOE at 7/1 generally, but be quick as some bookies have trimmed to 13/2.

Selections
Chepstow 3:20 Cocktails At Dawn, £4 eachway @ 5/1 (available generally, quarter-odds a place 1, 2)
Chepstow 5:05 Drop Out Joe, £4 eachway @ 7/1 (available generally, quarter-odds a place 1, 2, 3)
Plus: £2 eachway double, Cocktails At Dawn and Drop Out Joe
Total Staked = £20

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