The jumps season is slowing warming up.
It is a period when you need to be patient and wait for
your reward.
There is an interesting 2-day meeting at Fontwell over
Friday and Saturday, and we should be able to find a wager on Saturday when one
from my alert list runs there.
Sunday, along with the Prix De L’arc de Triomphe being
staged at Langchamp, also has three good jump race meetings at Uttoxeter,
Huntingdon and Kelso. Again, we should be presented with a wagering opportunity
at one of these meetings, and I’m pretty sure which horse I’ll be recommending,
so long as the odds available are value.
There’s plenty of opportunity waiting for us, we just
have to be a bit patient.
One of my personal disappointments at the moment, is the absence
of the Nick Mordin column from the RP Weekender. Whether you love him or hate
him, Mordin always manages to provide a thoughtful alternative look at the
weeks racing. The Weekender has expanded the column inches of “Pricewise” Tom
Segal, but he is not in the same league.
I’m already getting fed-up with Segal’s whine about not finding winners
of the major handicaps on the flat. Perhaps instead of relying on getting the nod
from some of Britains best trainers, he should start reading the formbook
instead.
The focus of the racing world will be on Longchamp this
Sunday afternoon, where TREVE attempts to win the race for the 3rd
time. She has shown that her ability has
not diminished this season, having won all 3 starts and confirming her
superiority over last year’s “Arc” runner-up, Flintshire. Thing is, my opinion is that this year we
have a 3yo colt in the race who is perhaps a cut-above the ordinary – GOLDEN
HORN. Without a doubt, were it not for a
bit of poor tactical riding by Frankie Dettori at York, GOLDEN HORN would be
going into Sunday’s race unbeaten. The
ground being Good-to-Soft is a slight worry, but only slight as a horse of this
class should be able to act on virtually any type of ground. A lot could depend on the draw, though when
we know what the draw is I can’t really see it affecting the odds being offered
for the race. That said, I just can’t’
consider TREVE as value at just “evens” – and she’s odds-on with a few bookies.
GOLDEN HORN at 9/2 is more interesting (available with
Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Coral) but, along with the ground worry, he’s also
had a long season and it will all depend on how he travels through the race.
At this moment, if I was going to have a wager, I think I’d
have to go for a horse that is relatively unexposed yet has shown enough to
warrant a place in the race and comes into the weekend fresh is the Irish-trained
FREE EAGLE. Although this will be the first time the horse has tackled 1m4f
being sired by High Chaparral the trip should not prove a problem. From his
debut as a 2yo over a mile at Leopardstown, he has looked a seriously
high-class horse. He missed most of his 3yo season but in both his runs this
season he’s looked a more than capable Group 1 horse. Available at 16/1 generally, it is not
difficult to see him finding another 5lb or more on Sunday and being right
there in the mix.
No wager recommended, as this is a jump racing blog, but
I would not put anyone off an eachway wager on FREE EAGLE for the Arc.
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All comments are welcome,
Bang on re Tom Segal in The Weekender! Rather than whinge, he should be using the time that 99% of other punters do not have, to investigate new winner finding angles such as pace analysis, breeding, paddock analysis or sectional time analysis (which Mordin was banging on about 10 years ago to my knowledge).
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