It was a disappointing effort from the selection, Royal Battalion, yesterday; and the writing was on the wall after they had barely gone a mile with jockey Jamie Moore hard at work. I think I was right to oppose the odds-on fav for the race, Shear Rock, as although he won he was under hard driving to get back into the race and head the Irish import Disputed,who came in 2nd.
It made me realise that sticking to the alert list is probably the best thing to do with selections until the form settles down.
Still, the blog has made a decent start to the jumps season from the 3 selections to date: 1 winner, 1 placed, and 1 lost
Profit = £28
Total staked = £30
There are two meetings over the jumps today (Saturday) at Fontwell and Hexham.
At Fontwell, the main race that I am interested in is the 3:20pm a Class 2 handicap hurdle over an extended 2m3f.
The topweight is an old friend of the blog, FOXCUB, who has won a couple of times for us and is a horse who runs well at Fontwell. He started last season in this race and ran 2nd off OR129 finishing well clear of the 3rd horse, but was unable to contain the winner that day, Henryville, who won of OR138 and ended the season rated OR156 going on to run 4th in the Pertemps Final over 3-mile at the Cheltenham Festival - so, no disgrace in defeat that day.
In his next race, he made an early mistake and couldn't make an impression after that. However, at Bangor in November, he made-all over a similar trip to today off OR132. In his final couple of races he was outclassed in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot and the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. The worry is that he may just need this race to reach peak fitness, and trainer Tom Symonds would like to go chasing with him this season.
The current race-fav PROMANCO looks very well handicapped on OR122 if the promise of his latest win in May is anything to go by. However, the same can be said for the 2nd-fav AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA who won well over 2-mile LTO and has won over a similar trip to today. The other LTO winner in the race is GIOIA DI VITA, who is another who could be well handicapped as, behind him when he won LTO was a subsequent good winner.
A tricky race to fathom, and one in which I'd like to side with my alert list horse but realistically, I can't as there are too many improving unexposed rivals. I expect FOXCUB to run well, trying to make-all as usual; and, if he gets them all off the bridle in the final mile then, who knows?
As such, no wager advised today, but we may have one tomorrow.
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