The evening meeting at Windsor looks one to avoid.
At Brighton, if Noseda sends one here then sit up and take notice. He is 10 wins from 15 runners with 3yo’s and he’s running BRANNAGH (OR77) in the 3:10 (currently 11/8). However, I wouldn’t want to take this short a price with Mark Johnston’s Jay’s Treaty likely to improve on his debut run, and the well-bred Yashrid who could end up OR88+ like 4 other produce of his dam.
In the 3:40, I like the look of RESPLENDENT LIGHT who, after beating Warringah as a 3yo, was considered Listed class. He didn’t make that grade and was penalised for it when returning to handicaps. Now running off OR88, he could lead and not be passed and odds of 5/1 generally (11/2 with Skybet) look generous.
At Redcar, CAWDOR won in solid fashion last time out and he looks likely to follow-up in this claimer at 4:20, especially as his only real opponent on paper – Abbondanzer – wants a mile to show his best and may be caught for speed over this 6f trip. The handicap at 4:50 is one to watch and make note of for the future.
So, just the 2 selections: RESPLENDENT LIGHT @ 5/1 and CAWDOR @ 2/1 (try and get 9/4+).
Not a good day today, I should have stuck with the stats! BRANNAGH won his race in a canter @ 5/4 (having been 13/8 about 10 mins before the off). That made it 11 wins from 16 3yo runners for Noseda at Brighton – take note for next time.
ReplyDeleteThe was a bit of a market move for RESPLENDENT LIGHT from 5’s into 7/2 (settling at an SP of 4/1) which gave me some confidence but it was short-lived. When push came to shove, he threw in the towel. Let’s hope he improves for the run.
CAWDOR never looked like being involved once the gates opened, which for his supporters must have been galling. Bets of £4000-£2000 and £1750-£1000 were recorded (see sportinglife.com) so clearly someone thought he had more than a slim chance.