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Thursday 17 January 2019

Cheltenham Festival Portfolio Update

My Cheltenham portfolio so far:
Cheltenham Gold Cup
CLAN DES OBEAUX, £12 win @ 12/1
Ryanair Chase
POLITOLOGUE, £38 win @ 14/1 (average odds - current intention is to lay-off £28 at SP on the day)
POLITOLOGUE, £5 place @ 12/1
Champion Hurdle
SHARJAH, £20 win @ 12/1 (current intention is to lay-off £10 at SP on the day)

Following on from last weekend's racing and watching Top Notch out-stay Charbel over the 2m5f trip at Ascot, I've increased my wager on Politologue for the Ryanair Chase.  I've followed Top Notch since he ran in the JLT Novices Chase at the 2017 Festival (when he was 2nd to Yorkhill), and while he is a very capable chaser, but is he another who is possibly just below the very top-class
Back in 4th in that 2017 JLT Chase was Politologue, and he ran well that day but wasn't good enough. Right now, I'm wondering if I should be on Top Notch, as he certainly came up the hill chasing Yorkill best of all, but all his best efforts have been in races of 7 or less runners and I am expecting a field of over 10 to line-up for the Ryanair Chase in March
The current antepost fav for the Ryanair Chase is Min, however Politologue beat Min over 2m4f at Aintree last April and while Min is effective at that trip whether he can stay the 2m5f of the Ryanair Chase is debatable. I am fairly certain that Politologue will stay the 2m5f trip, my doubt with him is Cheltenham and whether he is truly "at-home" on the track; but he is certainly a better horse now than he was 2 years ago, whereas I feel Top Notch hasn't improved. he just wins when he gets his optimum conditions.
With the weather as it is making the ground too "quick" for Waiting Patiently to risk a run, I'm not expecting the horse to line-up at Cheltenham. If he does, then Waiting Patiently will start the fav, but let's see if connections are brave enough. It seems that Footpad isn't as good as we thought he was last season when he won the Arkle (but then he had very little to beat), but he still needs to show improved form for a step-up in trip from 2-mile if he's to win the Ryanair Chase. While Monalee won the "Flogas" Chase over 2m5f last February as a novice, he's shown much better form than that over 3-miles and he looks a horse that is just below top-level; and Un De Sceaux wasn't good enough to win last year.
An interesting contender would be the mare Shattered Love who won the JLT Novice Chase over 2m4f last year and I could see her going really well in the Ryanair Chase, but connections have confirmed today that the aim is to go straight for the Gold Cup, which I feel is a bit strange as she's not shown that she's good enough.
I think the winner of the Ryanair Chase will be one of either Min; Top Notch; Waiting Patiently; or Politologue and at this moment I'm happy with Politologue, but since the weekend he's taken a walk in the betting on the exchanges.

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