Early look at the Skybet Chase on Saturday

I didn’t post a blog on Saturday, but I did issue a message on twitter mid-morning suggesting an eachway wager on BALLYDINE who I thought looked unexposed at the trip and had the ground in his favour in a race filled with mudlarks. 

With 5 fences to jump he looked the most likely winner, but was caught flat-footed when the pace quickened. However, as they came to 3-out he was back in the game, staying-on strong and was holding every chance when he hit that fence hard – so hard that I thought he’d be pulled-up. 

To his credit, his jockey kept him going and he really stayed on well after the final fence to be beaten just over a rapidly diminishing 4-lengths into 3^rd.  This horse will have better days ahead.

Before I move on from this race, what a performance from the winner WAKANDA.  

Readers of the blog will know I have been a great fan of this horse going back to the autumn of 2015 when I tipped him to win his 1st-3 races of that campaign. Since then, whenever he has slipped below OR147 he’s been worthy of following coming 2^nd (off OR144) in the 2017 “Rowland Meyrick” btn just a head; following that up with a win (off OR145) in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster last January; and then on Saturday he won off OR146. As such, he may struggle to follow-up NTO if he's raised more than 3lb by the handicapper.

This Saturday I will be at Cheltenham for the “Trials” meeting, but I will also be keeping an eye on the attractive meeting at Doncaster which features the Skybet Chase over 3-mile. Last year, I came within a smidgeon of pulling-off a mighty wager when my selection Warriors Tale was pipped on the post - after looking like having the race in the bag on the run-in – by Wakanda, no less (see above). 

Only 14 remain in the race at the 5-day stage, and Paul Nicholls sends 3 in Warriors Tale (bidding to go one better), Art Mauresque, and Favorito Buck’s. 

Personally, I think Art Mauresque will struggle to win off OR152 at this trip as he’s probably better at 2m6f.  I also think Warriors Tale will need a career-best to win off OR153 (he was beaten off OR147 last year) and I see him as more a winner of the “Topham” Trophy at Aintree in April. Favourito Buck’s is a young horse at 7yo, but he will also need to find some improvement off OR133, and he’s also struggled in field of 10 or more.

Of the others, top-weight with 11st12lb is Minella Rocco and he’s struggled since running 2^nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Sizing John in 2017 (with subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River in 3^rd).  He’s been off the track since last February, and this is his 1st run since having a wind-operation after falling in the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown.  He can go well off a long break as, following his win in the 4-mile NH Chase in 2016, he reappeared in November to run a cracker off OR155 (and I was at Cheltenham that day and noted that he looked most unfit in the paddock, so his effort was all the more remarkable).  If he can get into a good rhythm, he may be very difficult to beat.

When Nicky Henderson sends one to Doncaster, take note, and so his O O Seven – who won over C&D LTO on his only run this season – is worth keeping an eye on, however, this looks a big ask off OR152. Go Conquer was beaten into 2^nd that day but I don’t think he’s going to be capable of reversing the places even on better terms.

This 3-mile trip will suit Dingo Dollar a lot more than the 3m2f of the Ladbrokes Trophy as Dingo Dollar faded dramatically in the final quarter-mile of that race. As such, I’m not convinced he will stay this trip as he was beaten at this meeting in the novice hurdle race over 3-mile back in 2017, and there is no way I could take the current odds of 5/2 offered about him for this.

It is a big ask against these proven stayers to send Willie Boy over 3-miles for the first time, and I have to overlook him and the same for Calipto who has never looked like staying beyond 2m4f, and there is little to recommend the others – Brian Boranha, Monbeg River, or Federici.

When he ran LTO, the only other horse I've not looked at was my selection, and moving away from running at Cheltenham could make all the difference for SINGLEFARMPAYMENT.  I thought he ran the race of his life LTO and it may be that the hill at Cheltenham did for him (again).  He should certainly have the strong pace in this race that he needs.  

If Dingo Dollar is 5/2 then Singlefarmpayment should be no longer than 3/1. Yes, he has been 2nd beaten a head or less 4 times (once as a hurdler) but the trip, ground, course and pace should all combine to give him an excellent chance, and odds of 10/1 (Paddypower and Betfred) are excellent value for an eachway wager if nothing else. 

For those more adventurous, 16/1 about Minella Rocco (William Hill and Skybet) also looks great value, as I'm expecting Willie Boy and Calipto to go for a 2m4f handicap at Cheltenham instead, which would mean only 12 go to post at Doncaster.