This is it - we are back at Cheltenham for the Festival.
It's been difficult, but - let's put things in perspective - for most of us, the events of the past couple of years have just been an inconvenience.
Onto the racing - and the main things to remember about the Festival is that 55% of all the races are won by a last-time-out (LTO) winner - from a representation of about 15% of all the runners; and very few races are won by horses which last ran over 84-days (12 weeks) ago - basically, before 26th December 2021. If you stick to these two factors you may miss the odd winner, but you will avoid 95% of the losing horses!
The racing looks top-class today, even if some of the fields look a bit on the small side, with some very open events presenting some wagering opportunities. It has been tricky to post selections early due to multiple entries, but the declarations on Sunday have allowed us a period of time to assess the form.
Remember: there will be NO Selections posted on this blog at odds of under 9/4 - for example, while I reckon Honeysuckle is near unbeatable in the Champion Hurdle, I will not be recommending a wager.
The opening race: the Supreme Novices Hurdle over 2m & 87yds is one I'm going to pass over. I did expect Mullins to send Sir Gerhard (who won the bumper last year) but he's now sending that one for the Ballymore. I'm not confident about the Henderson pair of Constitution Hill and Jonbon, they don't look good enough to win this in my opinion. It may therefore pay to have an interest in the 5yo LTO winner Mighty Potter, trained by Gordon Elliott, who is improving rapidly, and looks an eachway play at 6/1.
The Arkle Novices Chase over a trip 21yds short of 2-miles, looks wide open. I looked at this race in-depth last week, and while I think Edwardstone is a good 2-mile chaser, at 8yo if he wins this it is either a weak year or he's one of the best of the past 20 years. That Willie Mullins still had 5 entered at the 5-day stage suggests he has no clear idea of his best chance: and so I've gone for the promising but unproven Haut An Couleurs antepost. This is probably a race to watch, and I've only included HAUT EN COULEURS in a small stakes multiple wager.
The 3rd race on the card is the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f: one of the best handicaps of the season. I have already reviewed this race in depth last week. I selected 3 horses last week and two are declared to run: Fantastikas and Rapper. I think both are really good eachway wagers as they are proven stayers and improving novice chasers. It is disappointing that Fury Road is not running, but I will replace him with Full Back who is improving and looks well handicapped - stamina is no problem, but he would prefer ground on the soft side of good. I'm on all 3 at £5.00 eachway with Skybet who pay 7-places to 5th odds a place.
FANTASTIKAS @ 12/1
RAPPER @ 33/1
FULL BACK @ 14/1
The Champion Hurdle is the feature race of the day, and I just cannot see the mare Honeysuckle being beaten - she is head & shoulders better than anything else in the race and she has the mares' allowance!
The Mares' hurdle over 2m4f looks like going to the Mullins-trained Burning Victory. Mullins has sent his top-rated mare e Concertista chasing, and this one is an able deputy having already won at the Festival (won the Triumph Hurdle) and then was just btn at Newmarket in the Cesarewitch on the flat. She looks classy and won LTO over this trip. Current odds of 9/1 look generous, and certainly eachway value with Skybet paying 5-places. But I've not looked at this race in depth.
The Juvenile handicap hurdle looks a nightmare, with 7 of the last 10 winners going off at 25/1 or longer and last years winner Jeff Kidder winning at 80/1 - If you fancy one, don't let the odds put you off.
The NH Chase has cut-up badly and only 7 horses go to post. It is hard not to look in the direction of the favourite Run Wild Fred despite the fact he's only won once in 10 chase races. But, apart from Stattler who has little experience of chasing (this will be his 3rd run) there is not much else in the race capable of beating the fav. No bet race for me (again).
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