The less said about the opening day, the better, It was not the best of starts to the Festival for the blog. I completely misread the form of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, and thought the Henderson pair were overrated - wrong! Then in the Arkle, the answer was there all the time - Edwardstone - how on earth did I miss that one?
I went for several in the Ultima handicap, but only Fantastikas gave us a race, but he was under a hard-drive from before 2-out and faded into 7th. There was no denying Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle, but this performance was no better than last year when you have OR153 rated Epatante in 2nd and Zanahiyr in 3rd - the top of tree of the hurdle division are a poor bunch.
Onto Wednesday, and what can bring us back into the game? It is not going to be the odds-on Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle.
The Brown Advisory Novices Chase at 2:10pm looks more interesting. The Nicholls-trained Bravemansgame is a worthy fav and odds of 3/1 look fair value to me. He stays the trip and looks solid. With several having questions on stamina (L'Homme Presse) or on a recovery mission (Capodanno and Fury Road), the obvious challengers are Ahoy Senor and Beacon Edge - and I favour the latter. Beacon Edge does relish the 3-mile trip and should improve on his LTO 2nd to Farouk D'Alene when conceding that one 7lb, and the ground should favour him too - odds of 12/1 look eachway value.
My main wager of the day, if not the week, is in the Champion Chase at 3:30pm. We all know that when they met at Ascot in January, Shishkin beat Energumene. This time I reckon the places will be reversed. It is a shorter trip (by about 200 yards) and I'm hoping that by the time they reach the final fence, ENERGUMENE will hold a winning advantage. I will be upfront: this is my biggest wager on a race at Cheltenham since Cue Card won the Ryanair Chase, and I am confident that in Energumene I will be on the winner.
No other races on the card interest me.
My advised wagers:
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