So far, I've looked at the following races and come up with some selections:
Arkle Novices Chase: HAUT EN COULEURS @ 7/1
Champion Hurdle: Honeysuckle (no advised wager)
Queen Mother Champion Chase: ENERGUMENE @ 4/1
Ryanair Chase: FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES @ 12/1 (eachway wager)
Stayers' Hurdle: FLOORING PORTER @ 7/2
The Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 2m5f and the Brown Advisory Novices Chase over 3-miles don't appear - at this time - to look like races with any value in as they are dominated by their respective market leaders. Personally, for the UK, I think Paul Nicholls has a strong hand in the staying novice chase division with Bravemansgame and Threeunderthrufive. Both have multiple entries and much depends on whether Nicholls selects the race that represents their best chance of winning. For Bravemansgame, I think his best chance will in the Brown Advisory as we know he stays the 3-mile trip well and the Irish pair of Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger are not proven beyond 2m5f. Unfortunately, Bravemansgame is just 2/1 for this race, which is appalling. I'm hoping Willie Mullins sends Galopin Des Champs for the Turners Novices Chase over 2m4f, leaving STATTLER to go for the Brown Advisory for which he is currently 12/1 (NRNB), rather than the NH Novices Chase over 3m6f (amateur riders). Stattler ticks a lot of boxes for the 3-mile novice chase: proven at the trip, a good hurdler, lightly raced and a 7yo. He is just 5/2 for the NH Novices Chase over 3m6f but there is not much on form to split the top-end of the market leaders in that race. I'd rather take the 12/1 NRNB in a race in which he has a good chance of winning, than 5/2 in a race in which he may not even be placed in the 1st-3. Another Irish horse which improved for the step-up to 3-mile LTO was BEACON EDGE - his only entry for Cheltenham is the Brown Advisory and he looks potentially a class chaser over this trip. He is almost guaranteed to run and odds of 16/1 (NRNB) look great value about a horse than 4th in the Stayers' Hurdle last year on his debut at 3-miles.
For the NH Novices Chase, a really good way of finding the winner is to note the horse with the highest official rating. Current fav at 5/2 is Run Wild Fred, but he keeps coming 2nd - and he's had 10 chase races winning just the once. For me, he is highly opposable. I'm going to go out on a limb in this race and ignore the Irish-trained horses heading the betting as they are all round-about the same on form; I'm looking at a UK-trained entry who looks like he will stay all-day-long: DOES HE KNOW. Currently the fav for the 3-mile Ultima Handicap Chase earlier in the day, he is 12/1 (NRNB) for this race. A multiple Cheltenham winner, and a winner on ground from Good thru-to Soft. After his win LTO he's rated OR152, and while that's lower than Run Wild Fred on OR158, Does He Know has won 3 of his 4 chase races - he knows how to win.
Brown Advisory Novices Chase: STATTLER @ 12/1 NRNB (eachway wager)
Brown Advisory Novices Chase: BEACON EDGE @ 16/1 NRNB (eachway wager)
NH Novices Chase: DOES HE KNOW @ 12/1 NRNB (eachway wager)
At the start of this blog I mentioned THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE, but I've not mentioned a race for him. That's because I think Nicholls if planning a handicap coup in the "Ultima" on the opening day. He's entered Frodon rated OR164, who has 11st 12lb and top-weight. It's not impossible for horse with top-weight to win this handicap: Un Temps Pour Tout did it in 2017. And it's not impossible for a horse aged 10yo (or older) as the 11yo Vintage Clouds did it last year. However, of the 16 (yes, 16) races he's won as a chaser, 11 were single-figure fields and 4 wins were in fields of no more than 14 (the odd one was the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup in Dec-16). Frodon is unlikely to win this - so why is he entered? To allow Threeunderthrufive to run with 11st off OR152 - and I think he's chucked-in as this 7yo novice chaser will be 160+ by the end of the season. He is 12/1 (NRNB) and Skybet and PaddyPower are paying 5-places eachway.
Ultima Handicap Chase: THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE @ 12/1 NRNB (eachway wager)
My multiple wager is:
Ultima Handicap Chase: THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE @ 12/1 NRNB (eachway wager)
NH Novices Chase: DOES HE KNOW @ 12/1 NRNB (eachway wager)
Ryanair Chase: FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES @ 12/1 (eachway wager)
3 x £2.50 eachway doubles AND £2.50 eachway treble = £20 staked
Plus:
Arkle Novices Chase: HAUT EN COULEURS @ 7/1
Queen Mother Champion Chase: ENERGUMENE @ 4/1
Stayers' Hurdle: FLOORING PORTER @ 7/2
3 x £3 win doubles AND £3 win treble = £12 staked
Ultima Handicap Chase: THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE @ 12/1 NRNB (eachway wager)
£5 eachway = £10 staked
Brown Advisory Novices Chase:
STATTLER @ 12/1 NRNB (eachway wager) - £2.50 eachway
BEACON EDGE @ 16/1 NRNB (eachway wager) - £2.50 eachway
Total = £10 staked
Gross Stake = £52
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