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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 15 October 2022

Saturday 15th October 2022 - Champions Day at Ascot

I'm sure most eyes will be on Ascot and the "Champions Day" meeting there. Even Kwasi Kwarteng may pay a visit, to explore if he's any better with wagers on horseracing than he is playing the financial markets like he would a roulette table.

The racing at Ascot looks tremendous, but I'm not a great one for placing wagers on the flat at this time of the season.  Though, I can't see Trueshan being beaten in the opening Long Distance Cup on ground that he will love, and over a trip that we know suits him well. But the horse I really want to see is Baaeed winning the Champion Stakes.  It has been a glorious career for the horse, and what progress - his opening race was a class 4 maiden over a mile at Leicester, just over 15 months ago.

My focus is on the jumps racing at Market Rasen, where the class 2 handicap chase over 2m5f at 3:37pm looks very interesting.  Only 6 horses go to post, and I'm drawn to the bottom-weight GUY who never seems to run a bad race, but always seems to find one better. The "good" ground holds no fears for him, and the trip should suit him as he was a close 2nd in the race last year.  I think he's a good bit better than OR129, whereas his rivals all look to be on ratings that they may struggle to win off.  Killer Clown usually needs a run; Kiltealy Briggs possibly wants 3-mile; it's tricky to know what to make of Irish raider Rapid Response; and Orrisdale goes too well on heavy ground to suggest that this quicker surface will bring out the best in him. The obvious danger to the selection is the likely fav Tamaroc Du Mathan, but Market Rasen is not a great hunting ground for Paul Nicholls. 

Overall, GUY appears to represent the best option in the race, and I managed to get-on at the odds of 9/2 (I'm writing this bit on Friday evening).  There was a little bit of 6/1 available (from Bet365 and Skybet) around about 16:30 on Friday afternoon, but that was soon snapped-up (not by me, I might add), so I took the last of the 9/2 with BetVic.  As I write, there still plenty of 4/1 available, and that's fair value in my opinion.

In my last blog, I discussed some options for anterpost wagers, and I'm going to expand that theme during the jumps season.  The "Paddy Power" Gold Cup at Cheltenham on 12th November is always a top quality handicap to get involved in. The Irish-trained Busselton recently won the Kerry National over 3-mile, but before that he's run well many times over the 2m4f trip of the "Paddy Power".  He's had a busy season already, so it's no certainty that he will line-up for this race in November, but if he does he will likely be shorter odds than the 14/1 currently quoted.  Another horse that looks very interesting is the mare The Glancing Queen who goes well at Cheltenham, and possibly felt the soft ground when 7th in the "Plate" handicap chase over the course & distance at the Festival.  Coming to the 2nd-last that day she looked capable of finishing in the 1st-3, but emptied-out quickly.  I'm putting that down to the more testing soft ground . For an 8yo she has very few miles on the clock, and she could prove to be a lot better than her rating of OR145 when the conditions suit.

1 comment:

  1. The result was a little disappointing after the selection had been supported to an SP of 2/1, going off the fav. The pace set by the eventual winner Kiltealy Briggs was fierce, and it almost cost him the race as he barely climbed the final fence and was running on empty on the run-in. I've followed Guy for 12 months now, and in his last 7 races he's been 2nd, but it's time to pull up stumps with him.