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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 22 October 2022

Saturday 22nd October 2022 - Cheltenham

What a week it has been, but next week could be even more tumultuous. They say a day is a long time in politics, but the situation changed by the hour this week.  At least we have the regularity and security of horseracing - and the powers that be managed to make the sensible decision to maintain a 4-day Cheltenham Festival and put-to-bed any thoughts of including Saturday and making it 5 days long.  Apparently, it was the ground and the heavy rain that occurred on the course on the 2nd day of this years' Festival that swayed opinion - the possibility of heavy rain during a 5-day Festival could turn the spectacle into a public flagellation.

We're back at Cheltenham today with a half-decent card to review and - hopefully - find a winner.

There's a 3m1f handicap chase at 2:05pm and the fav is The Hollow Ginge who was just pipped in the race last year off a rating of OR137.  He's on OR127 today and the reason is his form went down the pan after that and, while he does go well fresh, it' a big ask for him to rekindle his form.  Another 9yo, Captain Cattistock is the 2nd-fav and he's won his last couple of races and goes off OR132 which is fair, as he won over 4-miles here at Cheltenham off OR135 in a hunter-chase back in April 2021.  To be fair, he was much the best horse in that race and this is a tad more difficult, as he meets The Wolf on 10lb worse terms than when they met in February.  The Wolf goes well fresh, and will appreciate the ground today - at 8/1 he looks much the best value.This will only be the 4th chase race for Coeur Serein, who is better-known as a hurdler. There's the possibility that his jumping is more confident now, so he's fairly handicapped on OR137. The 7yo Almazhar Garde is also fairly handicapped, but he never seems to run well at Cheltenham, so I'll ignore him. So, having started off thinking Captain Cattistock was the most likely wager, I've flirted with Coueur Serein, and ended-up falling firmly with THE WOLF who is trained by the very capable Olly Murphy. 

There's a 2-mile handicap chase at 3:15pm but this race looks very competitive, and the Mullins entry Dads Lad could be well-in off OR135, as could Gordon Elliott's entry Poseidon. This meeting is used by Elliott to gain knowledge of the level of the UK horses, especially the novice chasers, so he sends over horses that he knows well and can provide him with a good yardstick to the form. Mullins is more "reliable" in that he won't send a horse over from Ireland unless he thinks is has a good chance of winning. 
Just the single selection this week.  We were a tad unlucky last week in the race was run at a serious pace which knocked the stuffing out of our selection, who wasn't able to mount a serious challenge and ran 2nd.  I'm hoping for a better result today.

Cheltenham 2:05pm - THE WOLF £5 eachway & £5 win @ 15/2 
(available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total staked = £15

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