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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 30 October 2022

Sunday 30th October - Hindsight

No doubt about it, hindsight is a wonderful thing.  Yesterday, a great "win" double was staring me in the face, and I overlooked the obvious and instead tried to fathom a tricky early-season handicap chase. 

Re-reading my own blog, what I should have done was stay with Bravemansgame - especially when his odds drifted due a spectacular, and ill-judged, gamble on Ahoy Senor. And I should have coupled that selection with Proschema in the 3-mile hurdle earlier in the Wetherby card.  For years, I've made clear my opinion that 3-mile hurdle races are a punters paradise as very few horses have the ability to win at 3-miles, and yesterday - as I wrote on my blog - Proschema merely had to repeat his effort when 2nd in this race last season to be in with a winning chance. As it turned-out, he didn't even have to do that as the fav Sporting John was very disappointing (he does have more than his share of off days), and the 2nd-fav Threeunderthrufive was using the race to prepare for a season of chasing.

Looking ahead with this pair, Proschema is a long way short of winning a Grade-1 Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival,  but it's certainly worth noting him outside of Grade-1 races. The same applies to Bravemansgame, who though he won, he didn't set the world alight to me.

Let's take a quick look ahead to the renamed Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury on 26th November - for decades this was the "Hennessey" and latterly the "Ladbroke Trophy" . 
It is interesting that Dan Skelton has entered Protektorat, but OR164 looks a tough mark for him in a top handicap like this.  I'm more interested that Bravemansgame could run in this off OR161, as yesterday's race will have him in peak form for the 26th Nov, those odds of 14/1 look interesting.
Last years' runner-up Fiddlerontheroof looks capable of running another big race off OR155, he's at 16/1.  The "Ultima" Chase winner Corach Rambler should be in the mix, but current odds of 6/1 are laughable at this time.  I think the ground was a bit quick for Fantastikas in that race, but he still ran well, and odds of 25/1 about him look interesting as he's a lot better than OR142, and that rating should ensure that he is just in the handicap proper, with 10st or 10st1lb to carry.

Those are my 3 early antepost selections for the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase:
Bravemansgame @ 14/1
Fiddlerontheroof @ 16/1
Fantastikas @ 25/1

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