The 482nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
The trading opportunity I identified yesterday was INSIDE DEALER in the 3:10 at Wincanton. He was the only horse in the race with potential to improve on what we'd seen to date and came into the race in good form. He was 4/1 in the morning, which I thought was decent odds for trading as I hoped to obtain about 5.40+ before noon, but there were a few non-runners "early doors" and his odds shortened to just 2/1 (approx. 3.20). As he had been prone to being "unlucky in running" that was too short for me for trading (I was planning on a back-to-lay strategy) and so I swapped my allegiance to the 2nd-fav Plein Pouvior as I was able to get-on at 5.80 before the off (started with an SP of 4/1). Unfortunately, INSIDE DEALER ran away with the race and Plein Pouvior made some costly jumping errors. I quickly realised that he would not win unless the leader fell so, when he flattered to deceive at about 4-out, I managed to lay-off my stake in-running at 6.20 and finish the race level.
Better to run away and live to fight another day, that's my motto.
Today, we have the opening day of the York "Dante" meeting. This has been a great meeting for me in the past but this year, I'm not so sure with the weather having upset a lot of horses racing plans. The opening race, a 1m2f handicap, looks a cracker to get stuck into. I noted that RP's Pricewise (Tom Segal) has gone for Space War; well, good luck to him. I've followed Space War for the past couple of seasons and I gave up on him a long time ago. There have been a couple of non-runners, so only 1-2-3 pay for the place. There is likely to be a good pace on and I'm going to trade on this race. Richard Fahey has AREA FIFTY ONE, and this was bought by Dr Marwan Koukash for £85,000 last October and has his 1st race for his new connections in this race. He's a prominent runner, and I expect him to be thereabouts inside the 2-furlong pole at which point he'll be trading around the 5.00 mark and may even go <4.00 before the final furlong. Will he win? Possibly, but front runners usually set this race up for a finisher and there are plenty of those in this race. That could mean AREA FIFTY ONE can steal an advantage if allowed a soft lead. Of those "hold-up" horses, I like the look of MIRRORED who is 36.0 on Betfair as I write. He will be coming with a rattle late-on, so (if you are brave) you could buy in-running at 40+ and place a lay at something like 10 to recover your stake, with another lay at about 5.0 to secure a profit.
The Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes over 6-furlongs at 3:00 is an interesting race. There are not many in this with the ability to win it, and a line can be put thru' most of the remaining 13-runners (Definightly is a non-runner). I think THE CHEKA could give the market leaders something to think about in this as he's only raced once before over 6-furlongs and that was when winning LTO beating Mayson into 3rd. With a combination of speed and stamina (has won 3 times at 7-furlongs, and stays a mile) I can see this one finishing in the 1st-3, and so - at 13.0 on Betfair – this is another great trading opportunity.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 16 May 2012
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
If in doubt, don't bet
The 481st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Selections for the blog have been a bit thin on the ground lately, but horseracing on the flat – especially when the weather is as bad as it is, resulting in soft/heavy going – is not my bag. And you can tell that the racing is not cutting the mustard when the Racing Post is printing substantial updates on the Derby and the Oaks which are not going to be run for another 3-weeks and we have yet to have the valuable "Dante" meeting at York.
It is disappointing for me as this time of year, from the Guineas thru' to Royal Ascot, is my favourite part of the flat racing season. Normally, I'd have been pouring over the results from the early Newmarket meetings and putting together my horse's to follow lists but this year – given the rain softened ground – it is very likely that the formbook will be turned upside down when the sun eventually starts to shine.
So, what I've been doing personally is "trading" on the exchanges, looking for horses at odds shorter than they are worth to lay, and for horses at odds between 8.20 – 12.0 that are likely to run prominently and show enough potential in-running to trade at half their odds or shorter. I found a suitable candidate at Redcar in the 2:30 yesterday in Little Jimmy Odsox. He was attempting 7f for the first time and, having not raced as a 2yo, he was clearly unexposed. He'd shown himself to be a consistent performer last season winning 3 times from 5 starts and finishing in the places in the other 2. His seasonal debut in April suggested he was in need of the outing, and I expected him to strip a lot fitter yesterday. There was not a lot of pace in the race and I expected him to be close-up thru'out, and he was. I obtained average odds of 10.60 (his SP was 17/2) and I was easily able to trade-out in-running at 5.30 as he was beaten only a head by his stable companion (No Poppy) having held every chance inside the final furlong.
There is plenty of racing today, but very little of it makes the heart race. As such, I've identified another likely trading opportunity at Wincanton this afternoon, tho' - having just looked at the market – I may have to look elsewhere.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Selections for the blog have been a bit thin on the ground lately, but horseracing on the flat – especially when the weather is as bad as it is, resulting in soft/heavy going – is not my bag. And you can tell that the racing is not cutting the mustard when the Racing Post is printing substantial updates on the Derby and the Oaks which are not going to be run for another 3-weeks and we have yet to have the valuable "Dante" meeting at York.
It is disappointing for me as this time of year, from the Guineas thru' to Royal Ascot, is my favourite part of the flat racing season. Normally, I'd have been pouring over the results from the early Newmarket meetings and putting together my horse's to follow lists but this year – given the rain softened ground – it is very likely that the formbook will be turned upside down when the sun eventually starts to shine.
So, what I've been doing personally is "trading" on the exchanges, looking for horses at odds shorter than they are worth to lay, and for horses at odds between 8.20 – 12.0 that are likely to run prominently and show enough potential in-running to trade at half their odds or shorter. I found a suitable candidate at Redcar in the 2:30 yesterday in Little Jimmy Odsox. He was attempting 7f for the first time and, having not raced as a 2yo, he was clearly unexposed. He'd shown himself to be a consistent performer last season winning 3 times from 5 starts and finishing in the places in the other 2. His seasonal debut in April suggested he was in need of the outing, and I expected him to strip a lot fitter yesterday. There was not a lot of pace in the race and I expected him to be close-up thru'out, and he was. I obtained average odds of 10.60 (his SP was 17/2) and I was easily able to trade-out in-running at 5.30 as he was beaten only a head by his stable companion (No Poppy) having held every chance inside the final furlong.
There is plenty of racing today, but very little of it makes the heart race. As such, I've identified another likely trading opportunity at Wincanton this afternoon, tho' - having just looked at the market – I may have to look elsewhere.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 10 May 2012
Be careful out there
The 480th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections yesterday, and of the 3 races I looked at (at Chester) there's no way I could have found the winner in any of them.
The Chester Cup was started using a flag as the stalls could not be moved into position due to the rain-sodden ground. As such, the draw in that race was immaterial. Personally, I thought the jockeys did well getting away in a fair manner considering many will have had no proper experience of a flag start. The horse I liked in the Chester Cup - HARRISON'S CAVE – was dropped out to the rear early on, while the eventual runner-up - Overturn – blazed a path up-front. HARRISON'S CAVE made significant progress in the 2nd-half of the race before his jockey realised that his position was hopeless. Even so, this was an eye-catching run and, as I wrote yesterday, I reckon he'll end the season rated 105-110 which is well about his current OR94 rating. Definitely one for the alert list.
I managed to make a successful trade on the 3:05 on LEXI'S HERO. I managed to get my stake on at 8.20 and was able to easily trade-out at 3.90 in-running as the horse ran his usual prominent race up to the 2-furlong marker.
Today, the rain has continued falling and with flag starts predicted for several of the races at Chester, I reckon it is a meeting to give a wide berth to. All the other meetings today are this evening (Goodwood has been abandoned), and with rain falling heavily around the country it is near impossible to predict which horses will run (there are lots of non-runners) never mind which will win.
So, the recommendation is (with a line from NYPD Blue) "be careful out there".
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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No selections yesterday, and of the 3 races I looked at (at Chester) there's no way I could have found the winner in any of them.
The Chester Cup was started using a flag as the stalls could not be moved into position due to the rain-sodden ground. As such, the draw in that race was immaterial. Personally, I thought the jockeys did well getting away in a fair manner considering many will have had no proper experience of a flag start. The horse I liked in the Chester Cup - HARRISON'S CAVE – was dropped out to the rear early on, while the eventual runner-up - Overturn – blazed a path up-front. HARRISON'S CAVE made significant progress in the 2nd-half of the race before his jockey realised that his position was hopeless. Even so, this was an eye-catching run and, as I wrote yesterday, I reckon he'll end the season rated 105-110 which is well about his current OR94 rating. Definitely one for the alert list.
I managed to make a successful trade on the 3:05 on LEXI'S HERO. I managed to get my stake on at 8.20 and was able to easily trade-out at 3.90 in-running as the horse ran his usual prominent race up to the 2-furlong marker.
Today, the rain has continued falling and with flag starts predicted for several of the races at Chester, I reckon it is a meeting to give a wide berth to. All the other meetings today are this evening (Goodwood has been abandoned), and with rain falling heavily around the country it is near impossible to predict which horses will run (there are lots of non-runners) never mind which will win.
So, the recommendation is (with a line from NYPD Blue) "be careful out there".
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
****************************************************************************************************************
Vinci PLC Group of Companies
Opinions expressed in this e-mail are those of the individual not the company, unless specifically indicated to that effect.
This e-mail together with any files attached is confidential and intended for the addressee only.
If you have received this in error, please delete it from your PC and inform our IT Department on 01923 640 888 or itsupport@vinci.plc.uk.
Vinci PLC
Registered in England and Wales No. 737204 Registered Office : Astral House, Imperial Way, Watford, Hertfordshire, WD24 4WW
****************************************************************************************************************
Wednesday, 9 May 2012
Chester May Meeting
The 479th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
There's been no blog for a week or so, mainly as I've been lacking the motivation to write one. Today tho' see's one of the highlights of the flat racing season – the Chester May Meeting. Despite the rain and soft going, it should still be a worthwhile event. Looking back to this day last year, I advised paying particular attention to any runners sent over from Ireland by AP O'Brien. I recall he sent over 6 of which one was a non-runner and the other 5 all won! This Chester meeting is one of his favourites and the 3yo's that he sends to it are (generally) the best of this year's crop. Having taken both the Guineas races at the weekend perhaps this week's runners from his stable will be a little below his usual standard but, even so, they cannot be ignored.
He has 3 runners today, and the one I am most taken with is in the Chester Cup at 2:35, HARRISON'S CAVE. This well related 4yo colt made great improvement last autumn and comes into this race on a handy mark of OR94. He will handle the "give" in the ground, and should also stay the trip well. He would be a "win" wager today if he had a better draw than 15 (it still has an effect, even over this trip) and at just 8/1, there is no value in his odds. He should finish on the premises and, with luck, he could well win as I reckon he'll end the season rated 105-110; but odds of 8/1 represent no value at all. I'd be looking for 12/1 or longer and I may be tempted to wager in-running.
Next on the card at 3:05 is a 5f race which looks very competitive. An inside draw in such races is a must at Chester, even on soft going, as is a runner which has the pace to be prominent thru'out. Drawn 5, LEXI'S HERO who is a winner at Chester and always a prominent runner should be up to winning this at 7/1 (Bet Victor). He should be capable of matching strides with those drawn on his inside, none of whom have the greatest of form lines, and those drawn on his outer have a lot to do.
Finally, at 4:15, we have another 5f race in which the super-consistent NOBLE STORM has been drawn 3. He should blast out of the stalls and make-all from this draw, and only has to fear Addictive Dream (drawn 1) but he should have too much natural speed for him. Odds of 3/1 are available generally, and look fair.
This Saturday, the 3rd round of the Greyhound Derby takes place at Wimbledon dog track. Unfortunately, for London and all sporting fans, it looks most likely that greyhound racing at Wimbledon will cease within the next 12-18 months. Wimbledon is the last greyhound track in the capital. Even in my memory, I remember White City, Wembley, Harringey, Catford, Walthamstow. It will be a very sad day for the sport if Wimbledon is allowed to close. That said, a week or so ago, I advised a list of 10 dogs that I thougt would be worth following thru' the competition.
They were:-
BUBBLY PHEONIX (Apr10) - the 8/1 co 2nd-fav
TAYLORS SKY (Mar09) – the 8/1 co 2nd-fav
JAYTEE PEDRO (Mar10) – 14/1
BOWTIME SYKES (Mar10) – 66/1
RAZLDAZL JAYFKAY (Nov08) – now the 3/1 outright fav,
DROOPYS LORENZO (Feb10) - still 50/1
BOHER PADDY (Oct08) – 14/1
And these 3 who have been eliminated:-
JAZZ APOLLO
JAYTEE APACHE
RIO TORINO
My selection for top-honours was DROOPYS LORENZO who is still @ 50/1 for the competition but, with only 48-dogs left in, this young dog still has a fair chance of reaching the final.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
There's been no blog for a week or so, mainly as I've been lacking the motivation to write one. Today tho' see's one of the highlights of the flat racing season – the Chester May Meeting. Despite the rain and soft going, it should still be a worthwhile event. Looking back to this day last year, I advised paying particular attention to any runners sent over from Ireland by AP O'Brien. I recall he sent over 6 of which one was a non-runner and the other 5 all won! This Chester meeting is one of his favourites and the 3yo's that he sends to it are (generally) the best of this year's crop. Having taken both the Guineas races at the weekend perhaps this week's runners from his stable will be a little below his usual standard but, even so, they cannot be ignored.
He has 3 runners today, and the one I am most taken with is in the Chester Cup at 2:35, HARRISON'S CAVE. This well related 4yo colt made great improvement last autumn and comes into this race on a handy mark of OR94. He will handle the "give" in the ground, and should also stay the trip well. He would be a "win" wager today if he had a better draw than 15 (it still has an effect, even over this trip) and at just 8/1, there is no value in his odds. He should finish on the premises and, with luck, he could well win as I reckon he'll end the season rated 105-110; but odds of 8/1 represent no value at all. I'd be looking for 12/1 or longer and I may be tempted to wager in-running.
Next on the card at 3:05 is a 5f race which looks very competitive. An inside draw in such races is a must at Chester, even on soft going, as is a runner which has the pace to be prominent thru'out. Drawn 5, LEXI'S HERO who is a winner at Chester and always a prominent runner should be up to winning this at 7/1 (Bet Victor). He should be capable of matching strides with those drawn on his inside, none of whom have the greatest of form lines, and those drawn on his outer have a lot to do.
Finally, at 4:15, we have another 5f race in which the super-consistent NOBLE STORM has been drawn 3. He should blast out of the stalls and make-all from this draw, and only has to fear Addictive Dream (drawn 1) but he should have too much natural speed for him. Odds of 3/1 are available generally, and look fair.
This Saturday, the 3rd round of the Greyhound Derby takes place at Wimbledon dog track. Unfortunately, for London and all sporting fans, it looks most likely that greyhound racing at Wimbledon will cease within the next 12-18 months. Wimbledon is the last greyhound track in the capital. Even in my memory, I remember White City, Wembley, Harringey, Catford, Walthamstow. It will be a very sad day for the sport if Wimbledon is allowed to close. That said, a week or so ago, I advised a list of 10 dogs that I thougt would be worth following thru' the competition.
They were:-
BUBBLY PHEONIX (Apr10) - the 8/1 co 2nd-fav
TAYLORS SKY (Mar09) – the 8/1 co 2nd-fav
JAYTEE PEDRO (Mar10) – 14/1
BOWTIME SYKES (Mar10) – 66/1
RAZLDAZL JAYFKAY (Nov08) – now the 3/1 outright fav,
DROOPYS LORENZO (Feb10) - still 50/1
BOHER PADDY (Oct08) – 14/1
And these 3 who have been eliminated:-
JAZZ APOLLO
JAYTEE APACHE
RIO TORINO
My selection for top-honours was DROOPYS LORENZO who is still @ 50/1 for the competition but, with only 48-dogs left in, this young dog still has a fair chance of reaching the final.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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