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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 16 May 2012

THE CHEKA can surprise

The 482nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

The trading opportunity I identified yesterday was INSIDE DEALER in the 3:10 at Wincanton. He was the only horse in the race with potential to improve on what we'd seen to date and came into the race in good form. He was 4/1 in the morning, which I thought was decent odds for trading as I hoped to obtain about 5.40+ before noon, but there were a few non-runners "early doors" and his odds shortened to just 2/1 (approx. 3.20). As he had been prone to being "unlucky in running" that was too short for me for trading (I was planning on a back-to-lay strategy) and so I swapped my allegiance to the 2nd-fav Plein Pouvior as I was able to get-on at 5.80 before the off (started with an SP of 4/1). Unfortunately, INSIDE DEALER ran away with the race and Plein Pouvior made some costly jumping errors. I quickly realised that he would not win unless the leader fell so, when he flattered to deceive at about 4-out, I managed to lay-off my stake in-running at 6.20 and finish the race level.

Better to run away and live to fight another day, that's my motto.

Today, we have the opening day of the York "Dante" meeting. This has been a great meeting for me in the past but this year, I'm not so sure with the weather having upset a lot of horses racing plans. The opening race, a 1m2f handicap, looks a cracker to get stuck into. I noted that RP's Pricewise (Tom Segal) has gone for Space War; well, good luck to him. I've followed Space War for the past couple of seasons and I gave up on him a long time ago. There have been a couple of non-runners, so only 1-2-3 pay for the place. There is likely to be a good pace on and I'm going to trade on this race. Richard Fahey has AREA FIFTY ONE, and this was bought by Dr Marwan Koukash for £85,000 last October and has his 1st race for his new connections in this race. He's a prominent runner, and I expect him to be thereabouts inside the 2-furlong pole at which point he'll be trading around the 5.00 mark and may even go <4.00 before the final furlong. Will he win? Possibly, but front runners usually set this race up for a finisher and there are plenty of those in this race. That could mean AREA FIFTY ONE can steal an advantage if allowed a soft lead. Of those "hold-up" horses, I like the look of MIRRORED who is 36.0 on Betfair as I write. He will be coming with a rattle late-on, so (if you are brave) you could buy in-running at 40+ and place a lay at something like 10 to recover your stake, with another lay at about 5.0 to secure a profit.

The Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes over 6-furlongs at 3:00 is an interesting race. There are not many in this with the ability to win it, and a line can be put thru' most of the remaining 13-runners (Definightly is a non-runner). I think THE CHEKA could give the market leaders something to think about in this as he's only raced once before over 6-furlongs and that was when winning LTO beating Mayson into 3rd.  With a combination of speed and stamina (has won 3 times at 7-furlongs, and stays a mile) I can see this one finishing in the 1st-3, and so - at 13.0 on Betfair – this is another great trading opportunity.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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