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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday 15 May 2012

If in doubt, don't bet

The 481st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Selections for the blog have been a bit thin on the ground lately, but horseracing on the flat – especially when the weather is as bad as it is, resulting in soft/heavy going – is not my bag. And you can tell that the racing is not cutting the mustard when the Racing Post is printing substantial updates on the Derby and the Oaks which are not going to be run for another 3-weeks and we have yet to have the valuable "Dante" meeting at York.

It is disappointing for me as this time of year, from the Guineas thru' to Royal Ascot, is my favourite part of the flat racing season. Normally, I'd have been pouring over the results from the early Newmarket meetings and putting together my horse's to follow lists but this year – given the rain softened ground – it is very likely that the formbook will be turned upside down when the sun eventually starts to shine.

So, what I've been doing personally is "trading" on the exchanges, looking for horses at odds shorter than they are worth to lay, and for horses at odds between 8.20 – 12.0 that are likely to run prominently and show enough potential in-running to trade at half their odds or shorter. I found a suitable candidate at Redcar in the 2:30 yesterday in Little Jimmy Odsox. He was attempting 7f for the first time and, having not raced as a 2yo, he was clearly unexposed. He'd shown himself to be a consistent performer last season winning 3 times from 5 starts and finishing in the places in the other 2. His seasonal debut in April suggested he was in need of the outing, and I expected him to strip a lot fitter yesterday. There was not a lot of pace in the race and I expected him to be close-up thru'out, and he was. I obtained average odds of 10.60 (his SP was 17/2) and I was easily able to trade-out in-running at 5.30 as he was beaten only a head by his stable companion (No Poppy) having held every chance inside the final furlong.

There is plenty of racing today, but very little of it makes the heart race. As such, I've identified another likely trading opportunity at Wincanton this afternoon, tho' - having just looked at the market – I may have to look elsewhere.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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