Only Fools Rush In

The run-up to the Derby at Epsom on the 1^st Saturday in June is probably the most interesting for me of the entire flat season. Following the Guineas meeting at Newmarket on the 1^st weekend in May, we have 4-weeks of reputation building horse-racing at the Roman-walled cities of Chester and York. This week, it is the turn of York with 3 tremendous days of racing centred around the Dante Derby "trial" starting on Wednesday.

Firstly tho', a look-back at Saturday's selection GREGORIAN which was just beaten a "head" at the decent odds of 3/1. Having watched the race several times, it seemed that the selection may have needed the race; or at least another half-furlong. The winner, Eton Forever, ran right up to his best in my opinion, and only just held on. His performance gives form of the race some substance. I'd be hoping to recoup the loss on GREGORIAN next-time-out, especially if stepped-up to a mile. I will also be following ETON FOREVER, tho' I doubt he'll be going to Royal Ascot this summer as he's probably far too high in the ratings for the Royal Hunt Cup (handicap) but he possibly isn't quite good enough to be competitive in something like the Group 1, Queen Anne Stakes.

I will be waiting until Thursday and the Group 2 Middleton Stakes for fillies over a mile & 2-furlongs before I have my 1^st wager of the week. The Group races on Wednesday – the Musidora (Gp3) and the Duke Of York (Gp2) – will certainly fall under my inspection but, as things stand, it's unlikely that I will wager in either of them. There is plenty of time to place wagers and if you want to make long-term profits from horseracing, it is best to bide your time (only fools rush in). Thursday's card at York looks very good as following the Middleton Stakes, we have the Dante and then the Hambleton Stakes over a mile which is a "Listed" handicap.

The Weekender published tomorrow (Wednesday) will have the form for these races and so I'll have plenty of time to decide on a wager.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
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Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Good start to the "flat" campaign

The first Saturday blog of the flat season, and so far my strategy of only aiming at the top-class races (that is Listed and Group races) seems to be paying off.

On Thursday, I recommended via twitter (my moniker is @wayward_lad) a strong wager on DANADANA. As soon as I read the form for the race on Wednesday in this week’s edition of the Weekender, I realised that the horse had an outstanding chance. As soon as the odds were published for the race on Wednesday evening, I tweeted that the horse was outstanding value at 9/2. Throughout Thursday before the race, I repeatedly tweeted that the horse was a snip at 9/2 which was freely available, and I placed a 2pt wager on the horse. Sure enough, after a particularly canny ride by Kieren Fallon, the horse won in commanding style at an SP of 100/30.  

As a result of that performance, yesterday I had a personal wager on MOUNT ATHOS at odds of 6/4. This week, Cumani only sent these 2 horses to Chester and MOUNT ATHOS won this very easily. On the form-book, it was only really a potential 2-horse race between my selection and the AP O’Brien entry (and last year’s winner of this race) Memphis Tennessee. However, I felt that the form of my selection was definitely stronger than that of the Irish entry and, at 6/4, was great value as I thought he should have been odds-on, possibly 4/5.

My other wagers in similar races this season has fared just as well.  Two weeks ago, on the final day of the jumps season, I advised a couple of wagers in suitable races finding the 3/1 winner  AL KAZEEM, and came close to making is a double on the day with my only other Flat racing selection ALJAMAAHEER who was caught on the line and went down by a "head". My only other personal wager this flat season was on TRUMPET MAJOR in the Group 2 Bet365 Mile on 26^th April who won at at SP of 3/1. So that’s 4 winners from 5 wagers so far this flat season.

Normally today, I’d have been deep in form-study for the Victoria Cup at Ascot, which is one of my favourite races of the flat season. Today tho’, I am swerving the race. Earlier on the card at 2:40 is the “Listed” Buckhounds Stakes over 12f, and in it we see the return of last year’s Derby runner-up MAIN SEQUENCE. Clearly top-class, we know he’ll enjoy the good-to-firm ground and stay the 12f trip, which is not the case with either Thomas Chippendale (wont enjoy the going) or Ektihaam (doubt whether will stay this trip). Current odds of 5/4 look fair in the circumstances, as the only factor against him is that Thomas Chippendale is the only runner today from Sir Henry Cecil.

I’m more interested in the Listed race at Haydock over 7-furlongs, the Spring Trophy at 4:05. Over this trip and on good-to-firm going, the obvious selection is the fav GREGORIAN. Current odds of 5/2 look very fair given he’s the top-rated on Official Ratings in the race and should handle the ground. He also won 1^st-time-out last season, and John  Gosden will surely have him well prepared for this.

Selection:

Haydock 4:05, GREGORIAN, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes who both go BOG

Finally, a recommendation to take a look at another blog, http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.co.uk which gave the 8/1 winner YEEOOW yesterday. Blogger "The Laird" who makes the selections concentrates only on sprinters during the flat season and can hit some rare streaks of form.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Jumps Season 2012-13 = 50.675pts profit

The 2012-13 Jumps Season officially ended on Saturday 27th April and tho' I wasn't able to post a winning jumps selection on the day, I am able to advise readers that selections on the blog produced a… 

profit of 50.675pts for the season 

…from 1st November 2012 to 27th April 2013.

All the selections posted on the blog in the period, plus the stakes placed and the odds obtained are detailed on the relevant page alongside, together with results for previous seasons. Since I started recording my wagers posted on the blog on 1st November 2010, I have produced profits of:-

Jump Season 2010-11 = 10.0625pts

Flat Season 2011 = 10.890pts

Jumps Season 2011-12 = 10.70pts

Flat Season 2012 = no selections posted 

Jumps Season 2012-13 = 50.675pts

Total = 82.3275pts

This is on total stakes of 347.50pts, giving a Return on Investment (ROI) of 23.69%.

While ROI is a good way to compare performance with other tipsters (23.69% means that every £100 staked results in a profit of £23.69) it does not truly reflect the overall performance. You cannot compare 23.60% with an interest rate for savings for instance. 

I wager to £40 a point, so my wagers since 1st November 2010 have produced for me profits of £3,293.10 (82.3275pts @ £40 per point). To generate that sort of return from savings in a interest-bearing account, you would need to have had £40,000 on deposit at a rate of 3% per annum; probably more than that as you have to pay income tax in interest, whereas no tax is payable on the profits from gambling.

I operate on a £1,000 or 25pt "tank", and that £1,000 has never been in danger of being lost, yet has produced well over £3,000 in profit in just 2 and-a-half years.

Over the coming months, I will be assessing the form of the jumps season that's just finished and updating my alert list for the autumn. It is essential to be ahead of the handicapper with improving young horses if you want to profit from horseracing.

For the Flat racing this season, I am concentrating my efforts on Listed races and Group races. I posted a couple of selections on Saturday, and found a decent 3/1 winner in AL KAZEEM, and came close to making is a double on the day with my only other Flat racing selection ALJAMAAHEER who was caught on the line and went down by a "head". I reckon there is plenty of scope to find value in the top Flat races, and that's what I aim to do during the summer months. 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown

The final major handicap of the jump season is run at Sandown, the Bet365 Gold Cup. No matter what they call the race, old hands know it as the "Whitbread" and that's the name under which the race had it's glory days. With a top-weight rated just OR149 in Michel Le Bon, this renewal is not the strongest we've seen and is possibly one of the weakest. Even so, I reckon this race could be an exciting one as there are some decent improving chasers in Well Refreshed, Away We Go, Same Difference, and Hadrian's Approach who all look capable of winning on their day. I also like the look of On Trend who didn't appreciate Cheltenham LTO, but won a good handicap here at Sandown in February. The ground may be a bit quick for On Trend, but I expect he'll run a good race even if he doesn't win, and at 33/1 he looks worthy of a "place-only" wager on the exchanges. The couple that I reckon will be fighting out the finish are Well Refreshed and Same Difference. Both are 10/1 with the sponsor, Bet365 who is paying 5-places eachway. Each will stay the trip, both come into the race in top form having won good races LTO. The ground being "good" will favour Same Difference, but Well Refreshed has looked such a good horse in winning his last 3 races (he's only had 6 chase races, and has won all 4 completed starts) and I cannot see the ground being an inconvenience to him winning.

The best wager on the jumps at Sandown tho', in my opinion, comes earlier in the afternoon at 2:40 in the Celebration Chase. I do not think anyone can rely on Sanctuaire showing his best foot. If he does then he should win, but he is a rogue. Finians Rainbow has looked a shadow of his former self this season and to wager on him is not logical. That leaves WISHFUL THINKING as the way to go. He's run as well as ever this season, confirming his novice season promise, and a repeat of his winning form of February at Newbury should see him take this at rewarding odds of 4/1 (available generally). 

Earlier this week I wrote that I would be streamlining my wagering this summer due to time constraints. As such, on the Flat racing I’m going to focus mainly on those races which are “Listed” class or better. There are plenty of them throughout the Flat season and, because there are a lot of them, a fair percentage are “weak”. That’s the angle that I am hoping to exploit. There are a couple today which I think offer very decent opportunities. At Sandown in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes at 3:15, AL KAZEEM looks to have this race at his mercy if he can repeat the form of his only run last season when winning off a very long break. I would expect Ektihaam to try and stretch his stamina, but that may well work in the favour of AL KAZEEM by making it a true-run race with a good pace. At 3/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes, those odds are too good to ignore. 

At Leicester, I reckon it will be a major upset if ALJAMAAHEER does not win the King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) at 3:55. As such, he's heading the market, but odds of 11/10 with Bet365 and Betfred look generous as I reckon he'll be odds-on at SP, trading at around 4/5.

Selections:

My final recommended wager of this jumps season is 1pt win @ 4/1 on WISHFUL THINKING in the 2:40 at Sandown.

On the Flat racing:

Sandown 3:15, AL KAZEEM, ½pt win @ 3/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Leicester 3:55, ALJAMAAHEER, ½pt win @ 11/10 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad