Good start to the "flat" campaign

The first Saturday blog of the flat season, and so far my strategy of only aiming at the top-class races (that is Listed and Group races) seems to be paying off.

On Thursday, I recommended via twitter (my moniker is @wayward_lad) a strong wager on DANADANA. As soon as I read the form for the race on Wednesday in this week’s edition of the Weekender, I realised that the horse had an outstanding chance. As soon as the odds were published for the race on Wednesday evening, I tweeted that the horse was outstanding value at 9/2. Throughout Thursday before the race, I repeatedly tweeted that the horse was a snip at 9/2 which was freely available, and I placed a 2pt wager on the horse. Sure enough, after a particularly canny ride by Kieren Fallon, the horse won in commanding style at an SP of 100/30.  

As a result of that performance, yesterday I had a personal wager on MOUNT ATHOS at odds of 6/4. This week, Cumani only sent these 2 horses to Chester and MOUNT ATHOS won this very easily. On the form-book, it was only really a potential 2-horse race between my selection and the AP O’Brien entry (and last year’s winner of this race) Memphis Tennessee. However, I felt that the form of my selection was definitely stronger than that of the Irish entry and, at 6/4, was great value as I thought he should have been odds-on, possibly 4/5.

My other wagers in similar races this season has fared just as well.  Two weeks ago, on the final day of the jumps season, I advised a couple of wagers in suitable races finding the 3/1 winner  AL KAZEEM, and came close to making is a double on the day with my only other Flat racing selection ALJAMAAHEER who was caught on the line and went down by a "head". My only other personal wager this flat season was on TRUMPET MAJOR in the Group 2 Bet365 Mile on 26^th April who won at at SP of 3/1. So that’s 4 winners from 5 wagers so far this flat season.

Normally today, I’d have been deep in form-study for the Victoria Cup at Ascot, which is one of my favourite races of the flat season. Today tho’, I am swerving the race. Earlier on the card at 2:40 is the “Listed” Buckhounds Stakes over 12f, and in it we see the return of last year’s Derby runner-up MAIN SEQUENCE. Clearly top-class, we know he’ll enjoy the good-to-firm ground and stay the 12f trip, which is not the case with either Thomas Chippendale (wont enjoy the going) or Ektihaam (doubt whether will stay this trip). Current odds of 5/4 look fair in the circumstances, as the only factor against him is that Thomas Chippendale is the only runner today from Sir Henry Cecil.

I’m more interested in the Listed race at Haydock over 7-furlongs, the Spring Trophy at 4:05. Over this trip and on good-to-firm going, the obvious selection is the fav GREGORIAN. Current odds of 5/2 look very fair given he’s the top-rated on Official Ratings in the race and should handle the ground. He also won 1^st-time-out last season, and John  Gosden will surely have him well prepared for this.

Selection:

Haydock 4:05, GREGORIAN, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes who both go BOG

Finally, a recommendation to take a look at another blog, http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.co.uk which gave the 8/1 winner YEEOOW yesterday. Blogger "The Laird" who makes the selections concentrates only on sprinters during the flat season and can hit some rare streaks of form.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
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