The 487th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
This weekend we having the running of "The Derby" at Epsom. Of all the horseracing run on the "flat", this race epitomises the peak to which all those connected with the sport hope to aspire. As I write, there are only 12 declared for the premier classic race this Saturday, the market being headed by the 8/11 fav from Ireland, CAMELOT. This horse is being claimed to be a world beater, and I must admit being highly impressed with his win in the 2000 Guineas earlier this month. However, having seen Nijinsky win the race - beating fewer rivals – at odds of 11/8 back in 1970, and Nashwan (another Guineas winner) win the 1989 Derby at 5/4, those odd look too short to me. I won a fair wedge on BONFIRE when he won the "Dante" at York and, at odd of 5/1 with Ladbrokes, with more "depth" to his stamina already proven he looks the better value. I can see him starting the 7/2, 2nd fav this weekend.
Due to work commitments, I am not able to put as much form research into my racing these days which (I suppose) is a good thing for me personally in these recessionary times. As a result, the blog has suffered in recent months with sporadic bursts of activity punctuating the lapses. It is not really possible for me to produce daily selections in the time I have available during the flat season so, over the coming months, I am going to focus more on general racing issues with the occasional race review when time is on my side.
My abiding love is with the jump racing scene, and I will be producing and updating my personal alert list over the coming months so that I'm ready to hit the ground running and take advantage come 1st October.
I noted that Aidan O'Brien still has SO YOU THINK entered for the Queen Anne Stakes which is the opening race of the Royal Ascot meeting, and that could lead to a head-to-head encounter with FRANKEL. Strictly on the formbook, So You Think has little chance if being able to hold Frankel, but this is horseracing. If so You Think does drop to the mile trip for the Queen Anne, then I expect connections will take the race to him and challenge Frankel for the lead from the start, thereby making full use of the stamina of So You Think. Throw-in the tenacious temperament of the older horse, and Frankel could be eye-balled for the 1st time in his racing life. Will he relish the challenge, or will he wimp-out? This, for me, is a much more realistic challenge for champion miler Frankel, than meeting the Australian "wonder-mare" BLACK CAVIAR over a mile in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on 1st August. Black Caviar is a 6-furlong specialist, and an extremely quick one at that. She would very much be the underdog having to meet the champion miler (and possibly the best miler since Tudor Minstrel in 1947) over his optimum trip. Thankfully, the Australian connections have seen sense and put that idea to bed, and are aiming the mare at Royal Ascot after which she will return "down-under".
Any wagers that I am contemplating today will be posted via my twitter account: @wayward_lad
Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 29 May 2012
Wednesday, 23 May 2012
BHA "Jump" Ratings
The 486th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No success for the blog yesterday, tho' events were outside the realms of foresight for the writer. The evening selection CRAIGLANDS was a late non-runner. I was fairly right about his odds as when I last looked he was at 13/2 and, given the way the race panned-out, I reckon he would have gone close. Not sure why the going was given as a reason for him being a non-runner as I thought it was perfect for him. As for my afternoon selection at Brighton – WELSH INLET – I'm not sure what happened. The horse was going well enough until veering violently across the track and was pulled-up. Again, given the way the race panned-out, I'm fairly sure that she would have been involved in the finish and had a better than 9/2 chance (her SP) of winning.
For me, this is what the stewards are there for. The horse was the 9/2, 3rd-fav having been supported in from 11/2 so punters who had money on deserved an explanation. What we got was silence. If nothing else, the stewards should have asked the jockey for an explanation and an examination of the kit should have been done and reported on. Finally, the horse should have been examined by the course vet and, again, his findings should have been reported. If there was no discernible reason for the action of the horse, then other scenarios could be considered – was the horse "spooked" by an object or noise? Still, I suppose the stewards had a nice seafood luncheon accompanied by a decent bottle of Muscadet as they wiled away the hours on a sunny summers day.
Racing this afternoon is poor, and I'll probably be looking at the evening jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Worcester for any wagers that I may play. As we are expecting more sun and high temperatures today, which will affect the going, there is a high likelihood of non-runners - so not much point in reviewing those evening meetings just yet.
Yesterday, the 2011-12 NH Ratings were published by the BHA and they make interesting reading. The first "issue" I have is why (after a dismal season) LONG RUN is still rated OR178? As the Racing Post's Steve Mason (who produces the Racing Post Ratings) writes in today's paper "was LONG RUN's win in the 2011 (Gold Cup) race really a stone (14lb) superior to Synchronised?" I said LONG RUN was over-rated after he won the 2011 Gold Cup, and I have maintained my stance ever since. Finally, it seems, more prominent judges than me are coming to the same conclusion. The horse "got lucky" in the spring of 2011, meeting (and beating) a much under-the weather Kauto Star and – in Denman – a horse who was a shadow of his former brilliant self.
One horse I am really looking forward to lumping on the next time he runs, is CUE CARD who has an OR157 rating. For me, CUE CARD is thrown-in off that rating as I'd have him about 6lb light of Sprinter Sacre, and I'd have the "Arkle" winner on 172. Off that rating of OR157, he can win the Paddy Power at Cheltenham this November and go on to take the Ryanair (if he doesn't go for the Gold Cup) next March at Cheltenham.
Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No success for the blog yesterday, tho' events were outside the realms of foresight for the writer. The evening selection CRAIGLANDS was a late non-runner. I was fairly right about his odds as when I last looked he was at 13/2 and, given the way the race panned-out, I reckon he would have gone close. Not sure why the going was given as a reason for him being a non-runner as I thought it was perfect for him. As for my afternoon selection at Brighton – WELSH INLET – I'm not sure what happened. The horse was going well enough until veering violently across the track and was pulled-up. Again, given the way the race panned-out, I'm fairly sure that she would have been involved in the finish and had a better than 9/2 chance (her SP) of winning.
For me, this is what the stewards are there for. The horse was the 9/2, 3rd-fav having been supported in from 11/2 so punters who had money on deserved an explanation. What we got was silence. If nothing else, the stewards should have asked the jockey for an explanation and an examination of the kit should have been done and reported on. Finally, the horse should have been examined by the course vet and, again, his findings should have been reported. If there was no discernible reason for the action of the horse, then other scenarios could be considered – was the horse "spooked" by an object or noise? Still, I suppose the stewards had a nice seafood luncheon accompanied by a decent bottle of Muscadet as they wiled away the hours on a sunny summers day.
Racing this afternoon is poor, and I'll probably be looking at the evening jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Worcester for any wagers that I may play. As we are expecting more sun and high temperatures today, which will affect the going, there is a high likelihood of non-runners - so not much point in reviewing those evening meetings just yet.
Yesterday, the 2011-12 NH Ratings were published by the BHA and they make interesting reading. The first "issue" I have is why (after a dismal season) LONG RUN is still rated OR178? As the Racing Post's Steve Mason (who produces the Racing Post Ratings) writes in today's paper "was LONG RUN's win in the 2011 (Gold Cup) race really a stone (14lb) superior to Synchronised?" I said LONG RUN was over-rated after he won the 2011 Gold Cup, and I have maintained my stance ever since. Finally, it seems, more prominent judges than me are coming to the same conclusion. The horse "got lucky" in the spring of 2011, meeting (and beating) a much under-the weather Kauto Star and – in Denman – a horse who was a shadow of his former brilliant self.
One horse I am really looking forward to lumping on the next time he runs, is CUE CARD who has an OR157 rating. For me, CUE CARD is thrown-in off that rating as I'd have him about 6lb light of Sprinter Sacre, and I'd have the "Arkle" winner on 172. Off that rating of OR157, he can win the Paddy Power at Cheltenham this November and go on to take the Ryanair (if he doesn't go for the Gold Cup) next March at Cheltenham.
Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 22 May 2012
Land the gamble
The 485th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I really don't like Mondays. Looking back thru' my records, I nearly always lose on Mondays and yesterday was no exception. I had targeted a race at Newton Abbot – the 4:20 which was a 2-mile chase – and I had narrowed it down to 2 horses in the morning, Great Kicker and Dean's Grange; both of which looked well handicapped and at decent odds. With the morning favourite Mon Chevalier being a non-runner, and subsequent morning gamble Twyford going the same way, I really thought the couple I'd selected looked decent value, especially as I did not rate Nicky Henderson's Tornado D'Estruval and the new race fav Temple Lord is a right "monkey" and unreliable. Where I went wrong was I thought Dean's Grange would need the run, having been off for 218-days since last October, and so I lumped all my hard-earned wedge onto Great Kicker. I quickly knew my fate. Great Kicker was being ridden-along at halfway and weakened quickly, eventually being pulled-up. Dean's Grange travelled well thru'out, led 3-from-home and, tho' he was driven on the run-in, he won a shade cosily. I hate Mondays.
Some fairly ordinary horseracing again today. My local "flat" track Brighton hosts a meeting and this is a course specialists dream. Brighton is a real "marmite" of a course – horses either like it or loathe it. That said, the opening 5-furlong handicap could throw-up some value. The race fav is Cut Across, and that's what he's going to have to do having been drawn 10 of the 10 runners in this race. He's only had the one race, which he won on the AW at Lingfield in February. So, he's inexperienced, he's drawn widest of all, and it's his 1st run on turf and it's at the tricky track of Brighton. He may well end up a rated a lot higher than his rating today of OR67 but he could need about 10lb in-hand to take this. He has to be opposed, and I'm looking at C&D winner WELSH INLET. This mare has only won twice, but both wins have come at Brighton and she will handle today's going. At 11/2 (Corals) she looks fair value.
The only other race I'm looking at is at Towcester tonight, and that's the 3-mile handicap chase at 7:15. The fav for this race will be Jolly Boys Outing and, given he is in good form and won over C&D in March, that is no surprise. But, he's up 11lb since that last win to OR108 and so he meets the horse that was 2nd to him that day CRAIGLANDS on 11lb worse terms. CRAIGLANDS is a safe jumper who goes well racing right-handed and, on this improving going, this prominent runner could well take advantage of the weight he receives. The worry is that he can be a bit one-paced as he's gone 17 races since his last win (October 2009) and he's been 2nd 4-times, and 3rd 5-times in that period. However, at 8/1 generally (he's 17/2 with Vic Chandler) that's fair value. Personally, I can see him starting at about 6/1 for this tonight, and maybe a point shorter if there is a non-runner or two. He is 12.0 on Betfair and, as he's a prominent runner, there should be plenty of opportunity to trade-out and secure a profit in-running, if not going on to land the gamble.
Finally, I gave readers a great winner on Friday in ARABIAN STAR who was available at 13.0-14.0 just prior to the off and virtually made-all. I wrote that he would trade at under 5.00 in-running, and that he certainly did and, for those who traded-out their stake and then let it ride for a no-risk wager, well done you!
Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
I really don't like Mondays. Looking back thru' my records, I nearly always lose on Mondays and yesterday was no exception. I had targeted a race at Newton Abbot – the 4:20 which was a 2-mile chase – and I had narrowed it down to 2 horses in the morning, Great Kicker and Dean's Grange; both of which looked well handicapped and at decent odds. With the morning favourite Mon Chevalier being a non-runner, and subsequent morning gamble Twyford going the same way, I really thought the couple I'd selected looked decent value, especially as I did not rate Nicky Henderson's Tornado D'Estruval and the new race fav Temple Lord is a right "monkey" and unreliable. Where I went wrong was I thought Dean's Grange would need the run, having been off for 218-days since last October, and so I lumped all my hard-earned wedge onto Great Kicker. I quickly knew my fate. Great Kicker was being ridden-along at halfway and weakened quickly, eventually being pulled-up. Dean's Grange travelled well thru'out, led 3-from-home and, tho' he was driven on the run-in, he won a shade cosily. I hate Mondays.
Some fairly ordinary horseracing again today. My local "flat" track Brighton hosts a meeting and this is a course specialists dream. Brighton is a real "marmite" of a course – horses either like it or loathe it. That said, the opening 5-furlong handicap could throw-up some value. The race fav is Cut Across, and that's what he's going to have to do having been drawn 10 of the 10 runners in this race. He's only had the one race, which he won on the AW at Lingfield in February. So, he's inexperienced, he's drawn widest of all, and it's his 1st run on turf and it's at the tricky track of Brighton. He may well end up a rated a lot higher than his rating today of OR67 but he could need about 10lb in-hand to take this. He has to be opposed, and I'm looking at C&D winner WELSH INLET. This mare has only won twice, but both wins have come at Brighton and she will handle today's going. At 11/2 (Corals) she looks fair value.
The only other race I'm looking at is at Towcester tonight, and that's the 3-mile handicap chase at 7:15. The fav for this race will be Jolly Boys Outing and, given he is in good form and won over C&D in March, that is no surprise. But, he's up 11lb since that last win to OR108 and so he meets the horse that was 2nd to him that day CRAIGLANDS on 11lb worse terms. CRAIGLANDS is a safe jumper who goes well racing right-handed and, on this improving going, this prominent runner could well take advantage of the weight he receives. The worry is that he can be a bit one-paced as he's gone 17 races since his last win (October 2009) and he's been 2nd 4-times, and 3rd 5-times in that period. However, at 8/1 generally (he's 17/2 with Vic Chandler) that's fair value. Personally, I can see him starting at about 6/1 for this tonight, and maybe a point shorter if there is a non-runner or two. He is 12.0 on Betfair and, as he's a prominent runner, there should be plenty of opportunity to trade-out and secure a profit in-running, if not going on to land the gamble.
Finally, I gave readers a great winner on Friday in ARABIAN STAR who was available at 13.0-14.0 just prior to the off and virtually made-all. I wrote that he would trade at under 5.00 in-running, and that he certainly did and, for those who traded-out their stake and then let it ride for a no-risk wager, well done you!
Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 18 May 2012
Bonfire comes alight
The 484th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Not the best day of trading for me yesterday. Neither of my selections – SET TO MUSIC & COMMON TOUCH – ran with enough verve to give me an opportunity of trading out at a profit. I was particularly disappointed with SET TO MUSIC but, in hindsight, perhaps the trip of 1m3f was a bit on the short side and if she steps up to 12f that should bring about improved form. I did something I know I should not do yesterday, and that was chase my losses. After SET TO MUSIC went down, I looked at the "Dante" which was the next race on the card. I really did like the look of the favourite BONFIRE for this race, mainly as I believe that AP O'Brien sends his better 3yo colts to Newmarket for the Guineas and to the Chester "May" meeting. As such, I did not think much or his runner Ernest Hemingway. As it happened, "office" money poured onto the O'Brien colt causing his odds to shorten and so pushing-out the odds on BONFIRE from 2/1 in the morning to an SP of 3/1 (I was able to get some money on at 4.20). It was only a small wager, but I was able to recover the money lost on my earlier trade on SET TO MUSIC. Then, I had a ½pt trade on COMMON TOUCH, and so ended the day a half-point in loss.
There is a huge amount of racing today thru'out the country and well into the evening. Too much racing for the average punter, but if you are selective – as I try to be – then you should be able to spot a few nuggets amongst the dross.
I'm looking at trading opportunities again, and I think I've found 3:-
York 2:00, WARLU WAY
Newbury 3:45, ESHAAB
Newmarket 5:05, ARABIAN STAR
All 3 are prominent runners who should trade at shorter odds, hopefully half of SP, during the race. WARLU WAY stays the 12f trip, will handle the going, and has the ability to quicken from the front. He's 12/1 in the RP betting forecast and I reckon this John Dunlop horse should be shorter than that, so the 23.0-24.0 on Betfair as I write is huge. There are a lot of hold-up horses in this race and there could well be a lot of unlucky stories. I can see him trading at <6.00 in-running, if not shorter.
ESHAAB has proved his fitness and well-being when winning LTO at Pontefract and that was in a good time too on heavy going. He's currently trading at 13.0-14.0 and that looks an attractive proposition given he's at 8/1 in the RP betting forecast. Again, he's likely to be able to lead these a merry dance, and I'll be happy getting out at <6.00 in-running.
Finally, ARABIAN STAR may not have run since winning last September, but he looks reasonably treated in this race and I'm hopeful that trainer Andrew Balding will have his horse fit to run to his form. This race is dominated in the betting market by Garde Cotiere who returns from a near 2-year break for Jeremy Noseda, but I am a "bird-in-the-hand" man when it comes to punting, and I'd rather be on ARABIAN STAR at 12.5-13.0 than take a chance at 3.30 with Garde Cotiere. ARABIAN STAR is 8/1 in the RP betting forecast, and I can see him trading at <5.00 in-running, most likely he'll trade shorter than that.
Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Not the best day of trading for me yesterday. Neither of my selections – SET TO MUSIC & COMMON TOUCH – ran with enough verve to give me an opportunity of trading out at a profit. I was particularly disappointed with SET TO MUSIC but, in hindsight, perhaps the trip of 1m3f was a bit on the short side and if she steps up to 12f that should bring about improved form. I did something I know I should not do yesterday, and that was chase my losses. After SET TO MUSIC went down, I looked at the "Dante" which was the next race on the card. I really did like the look of the favourite BONFIRE for this race, mainly as I believe that AP O'Brien sends his better 3yo colts to Newmarket for the Guineas and to the Chester "May" meeting. As such, I did not think much or his runner Ernest Hemingway. As it happened, "office" money poured onto the O'Brien colt causing his odds to shorten and so pushing-out the odds on BONFIRE from 2/1 in the morning to an SP of 3/1 (I was able to get some money on at 4.20). It was only a small wager, but I was able to recover the money lost on my earlier trade on SET TO MUSIC. Then, I had a ½pt trade on COMMON TOUCH, and so ended the day a half-point in loss.
There is a huge amount of racing today thru'out the country and well into the evening. Too much racing for the average punter, but if you are selective – as I try to be – then you should be able to spot a few nuggets amongst the dross.
I'm looking at trading opportunities again, and I think I've found 3:-
York 2:00, WARLU WAY
Newbury 3:45, ESHAAB
Newmarket 5:05, ARABIAN STAR
All 3 are prominent runners who should trade at shorter odds, hopefully half of SP, during the race. WARLU WAY stays the 12f trip, will handle the going, and has the ability to quicken from the front. He's 12/1 in the RP betting forecast and I reckon this John Dunlop horse should be shorter than that, so the 23.0-24.0 on Betfair as I write is huge. There are a lot of hold-up horses in this race and there could well be a lot of unlucky stories. I can see him trading at <6.00 in-running, if not shorter.
ESHAAB has proved his fitness and well-being when winning LTO at Pontefract and that was in a good time too on heavy going. He's currently trading at 13.0-14.0 and that looks an attractive proposition given he's at 8/1 in the RP betting forecast. Again, he's likely to be able to lead these a merry dance, and I'll be happy getting out at <6.00 in-running.
Finally, ARABIAN STAR may not have run since winning last September, but he looks reasonably treated in this race and I'm hopeful that trainer Andrew Balding will have his horse fit to run to his form. This race is dominated in the betting market by Garde Cotiere who returns from a near 2-year break for Jeremy Noseda, but I am a "bird-in-the-hand" man when it comes to punting, and I'd rather be on ARABIAN STAR at 12.5-13.0 than take a chance at 3.30 with Garde Cotiere. ARABIAN STAR is 8/1 in the RP betting forecast, and I can see him trading at <5.00 in-running, most likely he'll trade shorter than that.
Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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