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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 23 May 2012

BHA "Jump" Ratings

The 486th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No success for the blog yesterday, tho' events were outside the realms of foresight for the writer. The evening selection CRAIGLANDS was a late non-runner. I was fairly right about his odds as when I last looked he was at 13/2 and, given the way the race panned-out, I reckon he would have gone close. Not sure why the going was given as a reason for him being a non-runner as I thought it was perfect for him. As for my afternoon selection at Brighton – WELSH INLET – I'm not sure what happened. The horse was going well enough until veering violently across the track and was pulled-up. Again, given the way the race panned-out, I'm fairly sure that she would have been involved in the finish and had a better than 9/2 chance (her SP) of winning.

For me, this is what the stewards are there for. The horse was the 9/2, 3rd-fav having been supported in from 11/2 so punters who had money on deserved an explanation. What we got was silence. If nothing else, the stewards should have asked the jockey for an explanation and an examination of the kit should have been done and reported on. Finally, the horse should have been examined by the course vet and, again, his findings should have been reported. If there was no discernible reason for the action of the horse, then other scenarios could be considered – was the horse "spooked" by an object or noise? Still, I suppose the stewards had a nice seafood luncheon accompanied by a decent bottle of Muscadet as they wiled away the hours on a sunny summers day.

Racing this afternoon is poor, and I'll probably be looking at the evening jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Worcester for any wagers that I may play. As we are expecting more sun and high temperatures today, which will affect the going, there is a high likelihood of non-runners - so not much point in reviewing those evening meetings just yet.

Yesterday, the 2011-12 NH Ratings were published by the BHA and they make interesting reading. The first "issue" I have is why (after a dismal season) LONG RUN is still rated OR178? As the Racing Post's Steve Mason (who produces the Racing Post Ratings) writes in today's paper "was LONG RUN's win in the 2011 (Gold Cup) race really a stone (14lb) superior to Synchronised?" I said LONG RUN was over-rated after he won the 2011 Gold Cup, and I have maintained my stance ever since. Finally, it seems, more prominent judges than me are coming to the same conclusion. The horse "got lucky" in the spring of 2011, meeting (and beating) a much under-the weather Kauto Star and – in Denman – a horse who was a shadow of his former brilliant self.

One horse I am really looking forward to lumping on the next time he runs, is CUE CARD who has an OR157 rating. For me, CUE CARD is thrown-in off that rating as I'd have him about 6lb light of Sprinter Sacre, and I'd have the "Arkle" winner on 172. Off that rating of OR157, he can win the Paddy Power at Cheltenham this November and go on to take the Ryanair (if he doesn't go for the Gold Cup) next March at Cheltenham.

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