Bonfire comes alight

The 484th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Not the best day of trading for me yesterday. Neither of my selections – SET TO MUSIC & COMMON TOUCH – ran with enough verve to give me an opportunity of trading out at a profit. I was particularly disappointed with SET TO MUSIC but, in hindsight, perhaps the trip of 1m3f was a bit on the short side and if she steps up to 12f that should bring about improved form. I did something I know I should not do yesterday, and that was chase my losses. After SET TO MUSIC went down, I looked at the "Dante" which was the next race on the card. I really did like the look of the favourite BONFIRE for this race, mainly as I believe that AP O'Brien sends his better 3yo colts to Newmarket for the Guineas and to the Chester "May" meeting. As such, I did not think much or his runner Ernest Hemingway. As it happened, "office" money poured onto the O'Brien colt causing his odds to shorten and so pushing-out the odds on BONFIRE from 2/1 in the morning to an SP of 3/1 (I was able to get some money on at 4.20). It was only a small wager, but I was able to recover the money lost on my earlier trade on SET TO MUSIC. Then, I had a ½pt trade on COMMON TOUCH, and so ended the day a half-point in loss.

There is a huge amount of racing today thru'out the country and well into the evening. Too much racing for the average punter, but if you are selective – as I try to be – then you should be able to spot a few nuggets amongst the dross.

I'm looking at trading opportunities again, and I think I've found 3:-
York 2:00, WARLU WAY
Newbury 3:45, ESHAAB
Newmarket 5:05, ARABIAN STAR

All 3  are prominent runners who should trade at shorter odds, hopefully half of SP, during the race. WARLU WAY stays the 12f trip, will handle the going, and has the ability to quicken from the front. He's 12/1 in the RP betting forecast and I reckon this John Dunlop horse should be shorter than that, so the 23.0-24.0 on Betfair as I write is huge. There are a lot of hold-up horses in this race and there could well be a lot of unlucky stories. I can see him trading at <6.00 in-running, if not shorter.

ESHAAB has proved his fitness and well-being when winning LTO at Pontefract and that was in a good time too on heavy going. He's currently trading at 13.0-14.0 and that looks an attractive proposition given he's at 8/1 in the RP betting forecast. Again, he's likely to be able to lead these a merry dance, and I'll be happy getting out at <6.00 in-running.

Finally, ARABIAN STAR may not have run since winning last September, but he looks reasonably treated in this race and I'm hopeful that trainer Andrew Balding will have his horse fit to run to his form. This race is dominated in the betting market by Garde Cotiere who returns from a near 2-year break for Jeremy Noseda, but I am a "bird-in-the-hand" man when it comes to punting, and I'd rather be on ARABIAN STAR at 12.5-13.0 than take a chance at 3.30 with Garde Cotiere. ARABIAN STAR is 8/1 in the RP betting forecast, and I can see him trading at <5.00 in-running, most likely he'll trade shorter than that.

Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
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