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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Maybe you can light my (bon)fire

The 487th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

This weekend we having the running of "The Derby" at Epsom. Of all the horseracing run on the "flat", this race epitomises the peak to which all those connected with the sport hope to aspire. As I write, there are only 12 declared for the premier classic race this Saturday, the market being headed by the 8/11 fav from Ireland, CAMELOT. This horse is being claimed to be a world beater, and I must admit being highly impressed with his win in the 2000 Guineas earlier this month. However, having seen Nijinsky win the race - beating fewer rivals – at odds of 11/8 back in 1970, and Nashwan (another Guineas winner) win the 1989 Derby at 5/4, those odd look too short to me. I won a fair wedge on BONFIRE when he won the "Dante" at York and, at odd of 5/1 with Ladbrokes, with more "depth" to his stamina already proven he looks the better value. I can see him starting the 7/2, 2nd fav this weekend.

Due to work commitments, I am not able to put as much form research into my racing these days which (I suppose) is a good thing for me personally in these recessionary times. As a result, the blog has suffered in recent months with sporadic bursts of activity punctuating the lapses. It is not really possible for me to produce daily selections in the time I have available during the flat season so, over the coming months, I am going to focus more on general racing issues with the occasional race review when time is on my side.

My abiding love is with the jump racing scene, and I will be producing and updating my personal alert list over the coming months so that I'm ready to hit the ground running and take advantage come 1st October.

I noted that Aidan O'Brien still has SO YOU THINK entered for the Queen Anne Stakes which is the opening race of the Royal Ascot meeting, and that could lead to a head-to-head encounter with FRANKEL. Strictly on the formbook, So You Think has little chance if being able to hold Frankel, but this is horseracing. If so You Think does drop to the mile trip for the Queen Anne, then I expect connections will take the race to him and challenge Frankel for the lead from the start, thereby making full use of the stamina of So You Think. Throw-in the tenacious temperament of the older horse, and Frankel could be eye-balled for the 1st time in his racing life. Will he relish the challenge, or will he wimp-out? This, for me, is a much more realistic challenge for champion miler Frankel, than meeting the Australian "wonder-mare" BLACK CAVIAR over a mile in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on 1st August. Black Caviar is a 6-furlong specialist, and an extremely quick one at that. She would very much be the underdog having to meet the champion miler (and possibly the best miler since Tudor Minstrel in 1947) over his optimum trip. Thankfully, the Australian connections have seen sense and put that idea to bed, and are aiming the mare at Royal Ascot after which she will return "down-under".

Any wagers that I am contemplating today will be posted via my twitter account: @wayward_lad

Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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