Two Thousand Guineas day

I’m very excited about racing on this beautiful day. The reason? I’ve been working on producing a list of well-handicapped horses that I consider are better than their current ratings, with the intention of wagering on them when they next get the conditions they require to do their best.

But first, the Two Thousand Guineas.
I really hope that FRANKEL wins and becomes the horse that carries the Flat season forward. Every season needs a hero and FRANKEL could be this years. However, I don’t think he’s as far ahead as the betting makes out. In my opinion, he’s about 4lb ahead of this field on 2yo form; so what could challenge him today? I’m looking at 2 in this, purely based on the odds. They are CASAMENTO @ 12/1 and NATIVE KHAN @ 18/1 (and drifting). On form, Casamento is as good as any of the Irish challengers and so should be on 7/1 along with Pathfork. Trainer, Al Zarooni will have this horse at his peak and he has perhaps the best flat jockey currently riding in the saddle in Dettori. If this horse is good enough, it won’t be out of the 1st-3 and that makes 12/1 eachway a good value wager. Ditto Native Khan, who has the benefit of a run this season already when winning the Craven over C&D. If, the 15lb of improvement that trainer Ed Dunlop reckons was still to come arrives today, then he will be a very strong finishing horse. Odds of 11/2 and 13/2 without the fav look good to me.

From my alert list (public and private) comes:-
CAI SHEN (Newmarket 4:55) and I marked this horse out as one with exceptional promise when he ran away with his race LTO. He showed acceleration, stamina and tenacity that day and I expected him to be the 9/4 (or shorter) fav today – yet, he’s 9/2 with Corals as I write (4’s generally). This has to be a wager.

At Thirsk, both Justonefortheroad and Snow Bay are on my list, but I fear they will cancel each other out in this an set the race up for a finisher. As such, I’ll pass on this race, but the 4:10 sees KARAKA JACK return to the track. He runs off OR75 and showed he’s recapturing his form (was 2nd in Esher Cup off OR90 in April last year) with a good run LTO over an inadequate 6-furlongs. The easier “good” going will help him today, as will increase in trip to 7-furlongs. I was hoping for longer odds, but 4/1 looks fair enough for a small stake.

At Doncaster, FRONTLINE PHANTOM (running in the 5:35) was one I had on my list, but the value in him has gone now as he’s 9/4 (from 4/1) this morning. Later, in the 7:45 runs CAPE VALE. Now, I am not a big fan of these sprint races over 5f & 6f as so much can go wrong at the start, but CAPE VALE made all from the worst of the draw LTO to win like a horse going places. He has improved with every run since returning from Ireland to the Nicholls stable, and he can take this race. Odds of 11/2 look good as the fav Internationaldebut has only won twice from 39 starts on turf.

Selections:
Newmarket 4:55, CAI SHEN, 2pts win @ 4/1 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Thirsk 4:10, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Doncaster 7:45, CAPE VALE, 1pt win @ 11/2 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Total = 4pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Close - but no cigar!

Not a great day for the blog yesterday, despite all 3 selections running well. Perhaps we were a little unlucky as had I suggested an eachway “Trixie” (that is, 3 doubles and a treble covering all 3 selections in 4 bets) to a ½pt, then the return would have been over 17pts for a total stake of 4pts, meaning a profit of over 13pts. So, as you can imagine, I am a bit miffed.

A couple from my personal HTF list did not run well at all. MAGIC CITY may well have met a very decent filly in MISS WORK OF ART as she was the better horse on the day – no excuses. The time was not spectacular tho’. Prior to the race, I thought HEZMAH would slay the doubts over her ability to stay a mile, but she didn’t and found zip when asked inside the 2f marker. MADANY ran well considering the going was not in her favour. Why she was subject of a market move from 5/1 in to 3/1 is beyond me. She is not up to this standard (Listed) of race, but a drop back to a class 2 handicap on good-to-soft may see her in the winner’s enclosure.

Of my selections; CRITICAL MOMENT was outpaced mid-race and may well have needed the run. Even so, he’s not Group 1 potential on this form, despite his entries this summer. I thought AKMAL ran a great race and 2f-out I thought he’d go on and win it. However, ASKAR TAU returned to the form of 2009 when he won the Doncaster Cup beating subsequent Cesarewitch winner Darley Sun (gave him 16lb that day). He never got the fast ground he loves in 5 subsequent races, but clearly improved for his seasonal debut at Nottingham on 6th April over an inadequate trip (14f). Given the question marks over the markets leaders ability to stay the trip (Rite Of Passage excluded, but will he run?) the antepost odds of 20/1 (Hills & Chandlers) for the Ascot Gold Cup looks very inviting, as ASKAR TAU will have his going then and is now proven at the track and we know he stays well beyond 2-mile. ANTIGUA SUNRISE was running like a winner 2f-out but unfortunately her jockey (7lb claimer George Chaloner) tried to find a way thru’ on the rails and there was none. Pulled-out to go round, the jockey allowed the horse to wander and lost momentum, but when he got her balance back she ran on well. That’s the risk you take with ‘claimers’. Even so, I’ll take comfort from the fact that ANTIGUA SUNRISE looks on a decent mark of OR80 and if kept to 10f she’ll recoup the loss.

Not much racing to write home about today, but the Suroor/Dettori partnership make a rare visit to Bath. They feature on SAHAFH in the 2:40 class 5 ‘stakes’ race for 3yo’s over a mile. When last seen, SAHAFH ran a stinker, but her run at Kempton on the AW last July was a decent effort when 2nd over 7f. She led briefly inside the final furlong that day and the winner is now rated OR95. Suroor is making his usual slow start to the season, but 5 of his 6 winners at Bath (last 5 seasons) have come from just his 3yo’s of which he’s sent 10 – that’s a 50% strike-rate. If the horse wasn’t worth persevering with, the Godolphin would have sold it off, so 4/1 looks fair as a speculative punt. I’ll give the meeting at Brighton a miss (it’s not one of my favourite tracks).
At Perth, it’s the 2nd day of their Festival and Tom George will try and follow-up his winner yesterday with his only runner today, Lexicon Lad; but it’s a leap of faith as he’s not won a race before and he’s untried beyond 2m5f. I’m more interested in Nicky Richards as he’s sent 2, but one is a no-hoper, which leaves PREMIER DANE. He’s won twice at Perth back in 2008, then had a short break before being outclassed in a couple of hot novice chases in early 2009. Since then he’s been hurdling, but returned to chasing with his run LTO at Ayr. He ran a cracker in that race over 2m4f and he’s been dropped 2lb to OR118. What I can’t understand is why Safari Adventures is 7/1 for this as good going and 2m4f are his perfect conditions. This going will be too quick for Storymaker, and I am happy to oppose the fav in this as he’s been raised 18lb for his win LTO.
I’ll give the Hereford meeting a miss.

Do I have a selection for today? No, is the answer. If you look to the left of the screen you will see I’ve added a new page called 2011 – Flat Racing Notebook. From now on (till Arc de Triomphe day in October) the blog will be focussing on Flat Racing selections only. I’ll be aiming at finding well-handicapped or under-rated horses and following them when they next run. Not all will be included in the “Notebook”, as otherwise it may become too large. I’m working on that one – what I may do is have just a list of names with dates of blog-pages were you can find the write-ups. Whatever, I am trying to cut down on the time spent writing the blog and put more time into form-study.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

John Dunlop to maintain good form

There are flat racing meetings at Ascot, Newcastle and Pontefract on the turf, plus a jump racing meeting at Perth (1st day of the 3-day festival there), along with an AW meeting at Kempton.

The Ascot meeting looks very attractive and, from my personal horse alert list (operated from www.easyodds.com) I’ve been advised by email of the following from my list that I’ve made a note of:-

Ascot 2:00 – MAGIC CITY; recorded an impressive speed-rating of 93 on his 2yo debut in race that has been won previously by Group winning horses, and he was a wide-margin winner too.

Ascot 2:30 – HEZMAH; won her debut as 3yo, having led 2f-out, and looks a smart prospect. She’s entered for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. As such, she should stay this mile today, is proven on the going, and is race-fit with no question marks over her ability.

Ascot 4:15 – MADANY; was hampered LTO (lost 2-lengths) but rallied well. May well be a better horse on going with a bit of “give”, rather than GF. Even so, looks much better than OR90. Has two half-sisters rated OR100+, including Dolled Up who won a Group 3 in France as a 2yo, but did not train on as a 3yo.

Of those 3 above, MAGIC CITY looks a shoo-in and is priced accordingly at very short odds. HEZMAH also should win, but given the competitive nature of the race, I’d want longer odds than the 2/1 on offer as I write. With 3 other unbeaten horses, and Byrony having won 4 of her last 5 starts, I’d be looking for longer than 3/1 and wouldn’t be tempted at less than 100/30.
MADANY looks to be out of her depth in this race which should be dominated by Libranno (my idea of the winner) and Margot Did.

The Paradise Stakes at 3:05 over a mile looks to revolve around Sir Michael Stoute’s Zacinto, but this race is very competitive and Zacinto will need to be at the top of his game to win this. I’d be looking to oppose him, and CRITICAL MOMENT who never stopped improving last season, gets the nod. He doesn’t get a yard further than a mile (so ignore his last run over 1m1f at York) but loves to run on Good-to-Firm going. He will need to find a bit more from last season, but he’s entered for the Group 1 races the Lockinge and the Queen Anne, as well as the Prince of Wales (the latter two at Royal Ascot) so clearly connections have high hopes.

In the Ascot 3:40, AKMAL was the 9/2 fav for this race last year, but the going (good) was not in his favour as he is at his best on good-to-firm (8 runs, 4 wins, 3 places). He usually needs a run, and his performance LTO on 6th April was better than his run prior to this race last year. The fav Free Agent is not proven at this trip, plugging-on in the Goodwood Cup, and running 2nd at Ascot last September in a slow run affair over 2-mile. AKMAL’s trainer John Dunlop is being sparing with his entries at the moment and clearly is only sending horses out that he thinks have a decent chance. At 8/1 (available generally) and 9/1 with Stan James, he looks decent value.

At Pontefract in the 4:05, last year’s winner ANTIGUA SUNRISE has a lot in her favour. She comes into the race on a fair rating and has a decent draw, and also has her favoured going, good-to-firm. A winner over 12f, she has no stamina doubts and her 7lb claimer jockey is a decent rider. This race revolves around the fav Hawaafez, but I think that 3yo still has it to prove. Odds of 8/1 on ANTIGUA SUNRISE look value.

Selections:
Ascot 3:05, CRITICAL MOMENT, ½pt win @ 7/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:40, AKMAL, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Stan James)
Pontefract 4:05, ANTIGUA SUNRISE, ½pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

The search for winners

After a busy Easter weekend, it’s back to humdrum fare with an ordinary meeting at Yarmouth on the Flat, which I will give a miss. The Jumps meeting at Exeter also is uninspiring, tho’ tonights meeting at Sedgefield looks interesting and I may give this one some thought today, especially the Durham National at 7:15. I’m not a fan of the All-Weather, so the meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton are not for me.

One horse that I watched on Saturday was AULD BURNS but, even tho’ he was 3rd in his race, he looked ordinary and will likely struggle back in handicaps as he’s not “Listed” class based on this run. Later that afternoon, another I was hoping to see CLUB OCEANIC, was a non-runner.

With the amount of Flat racing that will take place over the next few months, I’m going to change my approach to winner-finding slightly from that used for the Jumps racing. For the past couple of Flat seasons I’ve used a combination of trainer-form stats and basic form-study to find horses that I consider are “well thought of” by connections. For instance, in May 2009 Richard Hannon sent only 3 horses to the entire Chester “May” meeting, including Cyflymder. Altho’ drawn well for his race, a 6f handicap (4 of 11), he was held-up at the rear before making his effort along the rails. As could be expected, he struggled to get a clear run, but still managed to be a close 4th. Next time out, Cyflymder won at 10/1, and he also won his next 2 races at odds of 11/2 and 5/1 and in all 3 of those races he was either prominently ridden or made all. He was only beaten a neck in his next race when the handicapper finally caught up with him. What made me sit-up and notice him was that from a stable of 200+ horses, Hannon took only 3 to Chester (he had a single runner on each of the 3-days) and he has a fairly good record there too.

So, I am trawling thru’ the racing results published in the Weekender of a Wednesday, putting together a list of horses that I consider are well handicapped.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

FRENCH OPERA caps a good day for the blog

Not a bad day for the blog yesterday.
FRENCH OPERA won like the ‘good thing’ I thought he was, and my only regret was not having more on him. I’ve supported him in 4 of his 5 runs this season and he’s won for me twice, collecting 5.67pts profit along the way. A genuine horse that always gives his best; I’d like to find a few more like him. The downside is that he’ll pay for his consistency with a ratings hike and, in my opinion, he isn’t OR162 (I rate him 160 at best, and this was about 157) so any hike up from OR162 will make handicaps a thing of the past.
Just 30 mins later, CALYPSO MAGIC looked like making it 2 wins from 2 selections on the day when he led from the off and had them all off the bridle with 2-furlongs to run. In the end, he had nothing left to fend off the challenge of the eventual winner Glen’s Diamond. The winner was running in his seasonal debut and based on this performance he looks capable of running to OR100+. Even tho’ beaten, I’d certainly consider wagering on CALYPSO MAGIC again on a track favouring front-runners such as Musselburgh.
Highlight of the day was the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and, unfortunately for me, the horse that caught my eye in the morning POKER DE SIVOLA went on to win the race without my money on him. Only true believers in his ability would have thought he had any chance of winning jumping the “pond” fence (3rd last) but he stayed on best of all up the Sandown “slope” (it’s not a hill).
Overall on the day, the blog finished 1.17pts in profit on the day and is now just 0.83pts down in the month of April.

No selections today, but the racing at Sandown should be watched for future pointers. I was really taken with the run by AULD BURNS (Sandown 3:50) when winning LTO and his half-brother Pickle improved a lot during his 3yo season for Hannon. If he improves as much as his half-bro then he could easily win this race, but the presence of the AP O’Brien runner Jackaroo, plus the likes of Dordogne and Hurricane Higgins make this a “no-bet” race for me.

Glencadam Gold went into a few notebooks when 2nd on his seasonal debut 10-days a go, and as such he’s the 5/2 fav for the 4:55 at Sandown, a class 3, 10f h’cap for 3yo’s only. However, I note that Jeremy Noseda has just one out today and that’s CLUB OCEANIC ridden by Frankie Dettori. He is a full brother to Mac Love who was a multiple Group 3 winner between 7f – 10f, so this trip should be within his scope and the going will also suit, especially if the sun makes it firmer by the time of the race. Also factor in Dettori – when he rides for Noseda then take note. Last season he won on 8 of his 25 rides for Noseda, with 3yo’s providing 5 of those winners from just 14 rides. At odds of 9/1, he may warrant a small wager, but you have to know that Samurai Sword is entered for the Dante (G2) at York, as well as a couple of Group 1’s this summer, so he is highly regarded by his connections.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

For England & St George

A cracking day’s racing lies ahead – and with so much to look at I will have to be brief on some of the meetings. We had no luck on Thursday with either of the selections, but DOUBLE DIZZY ran well for a long way.

We have 7 meetings to choose from today, so I’ll not waste time listing them all.
At Sandown, the Celebration Chase over 2-mile has cut-up and only 6 go to post. The fav is Tataniano, and if you believe the hype then he’s a good thing. I never believe hype, especially about a horse that’s 11/10 and hasn’t run since November (160 days ago). He will love this going, but then so will FRENCH OPERA and if he is able to repeat his recent form that should be good enough, especially as he’s in receipt of 4lb. Odds of 100/30 look good to me. The feature race at Sandown is the Bet365 Gold Cup and one from my alert list runs – Gentle Ranger. The Alert List is closed now the National has been run, so this won’t count (won or lose), but he looks the ideal type for this race. One that catches my eye is POKER DE SIVOLA who has been prepared for a “spring” campaign and can handle this quicker going. HE was well fancied last week for the Scottish National off a 6lb higher mark, and he gets on well with Timmy Murphy. But, there’s no wager from me in this race. The rest of the card looks a feast of racing, but it’s one I’ll be watching rather than wagering on.

There is a great meeting at Haydock, and the racing there looks competitive. If I were going, I would spend some time on it, but haven’t got that luxury today.

There’s a good meeting at Musselburgh, and I’m taken by the class 2 h’cap over 1m1f at 3:05. I’m a bird-in-the-hand man when it comes to 3yo’s at this time of year, and as such CALYPSO MAGIC jumps out at me at 13/2 (Ladbrokes) being a C&D winner LTO just 22-days ago. All the others have to prove they have trained on.

The sunny weather has turned the going to good-to-firm at Carlisle and the races have cut-up badly.

Selections:
Sandown 2:35, FRENCH OPERA, ½pt win @ 100/30 (Stan James)
Musselburgh 3:05, CALYPSO MAGIC, ½pt win @ 13/2 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Jumps action, & 2 for today

Another beautiful day outside as we go into the Easter Weekend. I’ll be taking things easy this weekend with no blog tomorrow (Good Friday). I will try and post up a blog on Saturday to cover the rest of the weekends racings, but I’ll almost certainly be at Plumpton on Monday for the race meeting there.

The blog had its 1st selection of the Flat season yesterday in HARLESTONE TIMES. He was the morning fav but, partly due to the gamble on eventual winner Sunny Game and partly due to opinion that John Dunlop’s horses weren’t quite up-to-speed yet, he drifted thru’ the day from 4/1 in the morning to an SP of 8/1. As I wrote yesterday, “he gets the trip, will handle the going and improved immensely at the back-end of last season”; and he showed that when he came from the rear 3-furlongs out to be 2nd over the line (subsequently demoted to 3rd). To be fair to jockey Ted Durcan, he did follow Dunlop’s instructions but, when he went to make his move, he couldn’t get past the struggling Dahaam who was hanging-in due to the camber on the track. As such, both those at the rear of the field HARLESTONE TIMES and Rock A Doodle Doo had their progress impeded. Would they have won with a clearer passage? I doubt it, as the winner Sunny Game looked in command and with plenty in hand and he looks capable of being rated OR100+ and goes onto my personal Horses To Follow list along with HARLESTONE TIMES and ROCK A DOODLE DOO. John Dunlop went into yesterday not having had a winner in over 5 years at Epsom from 32 runners, and after going close with Harlestone Times he rectified the situation with SPANISH DUKE in the 3:45 who won with any amount in hand. He must’ve been over the top at the back-end of last season with poor runs at Ascot and Newbury, but his mid-season form was solid especially his win at Newmarket in July when he beat Psychic Ability (now rated OR106) easily when in receipt of 3lb. He handles going from GS to GF, and could be up to Listed or even Group 3 class on this performance yesterday. He’s going on the HTF List too. Ingleby Spirit led for a long way in this, but didn’t get home and looks out of his depth at this rating. In the opening 5f sprint, FRATELLINO was well fancied and subject to a market move from 16’s to an SP of 10/1, but the support was not justified as he was outpaced from the off. He does have a lot of speed tho’, so he’ll be given another chance NTO. The winner Falasteen was a previous winner at Epsom over 6f, so when he grabbed the rail and went on 2f-out he wasn’t going to be caught. One that caught the eye was the runner-up Beat The Bell who had the worst draw (1) and had to do a lot early-on to get into a racing position. With a better draw he may have been closer. It’s worth noting that both these horses were beaten by Breathless Kiss on 6th April, and she finished 8th here despite being shortest of the 3 in the market at 15/2 – in these sprints there is not much separating them in the handicap and it all comes down to draw, and luck.

Today, there are 3 meetings of which 2 are over the jumps at Wincanton and Ludlow, and there is a solitary Flat meeting at Folkestone. Nothing exciting at Folkestone, but the meeting has attracted top jockeys Kieren Fallon and Ryan Moore so it may be worth giving their mounts closer inspection.
At Ludlow, the only race that takes my eye is the 2m4f chase at 3:50 where the market is made by Tyup Pompey. If he’s in the form of his win LTO (11-days ago) then he’ll more than likely win but, given he’s gone from good to bad before, I’d not want to take the 2/1 on offer today. He does hold his form at this time of year, but I’d want to take him on in this – but with what? For me it’s PRINCE DES MARAIS who has run well off OR123 this time last year. He loves the sun on his back and good going and quicker. He does not stay much beyond 2m5f, so his run LTO over 2m7f was not right for him. Even so, he ran well for a long way and as such comes into this race in good form and fit. At 6/1 he’s worth a wager and, with only 6 going to post, it’s a small 2in wager at that.
At Wincanton, there is nothing much to write home about. However, it would not surprise me to see DOUBLE DIZZY come home a long-odds winner in the 3:10. He slipped from OR131 at the start of the season to OR110 which he won off on 19th Feb at Wincanton. In his next run his saddle slipped, hence he was pulled-up; and LTO he was in a very competitive class 2 chase in which he was outclassed. He always runs well at Wincanton and he’s won his only race on good-to-firm going. He stays well (close 3rd at Cheltenham over 3m2½f on soft) and trainer Bob Buckler has had 3 winners from just 7 runners in the past fortnight. At 11/1, this is worth a wager in this 6 runner race.

Selection:
Ludlow 3:50, PRINCE DES MARAIS, ½pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 3:10, DOUBLE DIZZY, ½pt win @ 11/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Big day at Epsom

No selections yesterday – HOOF IT was seriously considered but subsequently passed-over and in the event was withdrawn as a non-runner about 40 mins before the off. As a result of that withdrawal, I went back to look at the race as the complexion of it had changed, and if you read yesterday’s blog you will see I mentioned Tombi and FLIPANDO in the narrative. With Hoof It out of the race, the balance fell towards Flipando being a prominent runner who stays a mile at good pace, never mind a stiff 6-furlong trip. I took the 8/1 available and never had a moments doubt. As I wrote after the race (see yesterday’s comments) this is precisely why I put detail into the narrative of the blog – so that if the race complexion changes (due to a non-runner or a going change) then you have some information to fall back on and take advantage.
The Pontefract Marathon went to rank (and I mean rank) outsider Spruzzo who won at an SP of 100/1, but was 263.0 on Betfair – unbelievable odds. As I expected, the fav Descaro did not fulfil his potential to stay the trip and found nothing in the final 2-furlongs to be 3rd.

Today we have 2 Flat (turf) meetings at Epsom and Newcastle, a Jumps meeting at Hereford and a couple of AW meetings at Southwell and Kempton. The Epsom meeting is the long-standing and historic Derby Trial meeting, but for racing buffs it’s the Great Metropolitan Handicap and City & Suburban Handicaps that are the feature, but the former is no longer run across the downs for over 2-miles – shame! The Newcastle meeting is dire – and I’ve no problem passing it over.

The opening race at Epsom is a 5-furlong Class 3 h’cap – blink, and you’ll miss it. This looks fairly open as the better horses have the worst of the draw. Bertoliver won the “Dash” here on Derby Day last summer, but he comes to the table only when he wants to. Archers Road looks the best of those drawn high, but I always think race-fitness is a bonus at this time of year. One that fits the bill is FRATELLINO who had a curtailed 3yo season, but ran a cracker last April at Sandown over 5f and a repeat of that run will see him break well, grab the rail and prove hard to catch. The 2 runs this season will have him in peak fitness and he led for a long way LTO, but he does not stay 6-furlong so he was never going to win that race. At 16/1 he’s a “back-to-lay” opportunity at least.

In the Great Metropolitan at 2:35, I’m happy to oppose the fav Sunny Game given what he’s shown on the track. HARLESTONE TIMES was the morning fav and he’s now 6/1 due to the market move on Sunny Game and that makes him value in my book. He gets the trip, will handle the going and improved immensely at the back-end of last season. Another I like is Dynamic Drive, but as he’s also entered for the Chester Cup, this may be being used as a prep race for him.

The City & Suburban at 3:45 is dominated by John Gosden’s Taqleed (have just learned that Taqleed is a non-runner) and Beachfire, but I marked out INGLEBY SPIRIT as a well-handicapped horse after his LTO win when he made all at Pontefract. He’s up 7lb for that but comes here in the form of his life and fit as a butchers dog. Now that Taqleed is out, odds of 9/1 on INGLEBY SPIRIT look more than fair value for this. Yes, he was well beaten by Beachfire last July at Goodwood on GF over 10f, and on 5lb better terms than he has today too – but, he’s got his act together since then and I feel he’s a different horse than then. However, he will be sharing the lead with Opera Gal and that may well set this race up for a finisher from off the pace – Such as Beachfire or SIRVINO.

So, do we have a wager?
Despite having a winner in a 6f race yesterday, I am not a fan of 5-furlong sprints, so I cannot recommend a wager on a 16/1 chance in a 5f race at Epsom were so much ground can be lost at the start by a bump or missing the break. Personally, I’ll be having £5 eachway on him and maybe another wager on Betfair as a ‘back-to-lay’ with my lay set before the off at 4.10 – if successful, that will return over 300% on my stake. The City & Suburban looks too tricky to fathom, so no wager in this. For me, it’s HARLESTONE TIMES at 6/1 (tho’ he’s 13/2 with Sportingodds, I’ve heard complaints that punters can never get more than £10 on).

Selection:
Epsom 2:35, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Fallon to HOOF IT at Pontefract?

Not a bad start to the flat season!
No “firm” blog selections advised, but the horse highlighted in the only flat race discussed – DOCTOR PARKES – came home a good winner at an SP of 11/2 (odds of 8/1 advised on the blog were available for a good couple of hours after posting). As such, I made £40 profit to the stakes I wrote I was wagering yesterday (I actually placed a fair bit more on each of them – but that’s my business). DOCTOR PARKES was very consistent last season, and I think he can be followed.
The other horse mentioned on the blog RHYTON, ran well and when he went clear at the 3rd-last I was counting my winnings! It was not to be as, despite touching 1.60 in-running on Betfair, he went out like a light after hitting the 2nd last hurdle. That said, he is better than this result as when he learns to hurdle properly (he either bunny-hopped over them, or clattered thru’ them) he will be half-decent. Watch him winning his 2nd (and final) start at Pontefract on good-to-firm over 12f and try and tell me he can’t win a 2-mile hurdle.
At Windsor, there was an interesting 6f h’cap won by Spanish Bounty. Robert Gibb who blogs at http://becherbrook.blogspot.com/ spotted that he’d dropped a long way in the handicap from OR90 this time last year, to OR75. Back in 2009, he ran several times off OR95 and this 5-length win suggests he’s well up to repeating that form this summer. Robert managed to get 28/1 about Spanish Bounty and he opened at 14’s on-course, before eventually having an SP of 7/1. There was some money made on this race by connections, I’m sure of it. Personally, I passed-over Spanish Bounty as I thought the “value” had gone (wrong!) and went instead for Hand Painted who came in 3rd at 8/1 (I was on at 11/1 eachway). Alongside the winner (who should run to +90 NTO) there are a couple to take from this race; HAND PAINTED who on good or GF going and a 6½f or 7f trip looks weighted to win, and the runner-up MYMUMSAYSIMTHEBEST who looks on a very lenient rating of OR70 and despite being a 6yo, this was only his 9th race (he has been off thetrack nearly 4 years in 2 separate injury spells). The only downside was the time for this race, and it may be that the going wasn’t quite as quick as stated (good-to-firm).

Today we have a jump race meeting at Fontwell, plus flat (turf) meetings at Pontefract and Bath. There are also a couple of AW meetings – but I’m not into the AW racing. I’ve had a quick glance at Fontwell and, not surprisingly, I’m passing it over.
At Pontefract there is a decent card, with 2 races in particular to look out for; the 6f Class 2 h’cap at 3:10 and the Pontefract Marathon over 2m5f & 122 yards at 3:40. The 6f race looks competitive and is the focus of a couple of blogs; Sprinterstogo (http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com/) and Bet Buddy (http://betbuddy.mobi/). I have seen many races going to front-runners at Pontefract over trips under a mile, and that puts the fav HOOF IT in the driving seat in my opinion – altho’ the likes of Tombi and Flipando (amongst others) will make it a race with plenty of pace.
I’ve had a soft spot for the Pontefract Marathon for a few years now and this sort of race can usually be targeted as there won’t be many contenders with realistic chances. The fav Descaro, has potential to improve on his LTO winning performance, but he’ll have to, to hold-off Markington provided the latter is race-fit. One that may spring a surprise is Dan Buoy who was very keen LTO, but he had been off the track since last November. If he settles in front, then he may be hard to catch as he does stay 3-mile over hurdles well.
I’ve had a look at the meeting at Bath and nothing looks exciting here either, so another one to give a miss to.
Do we have a selection? HOOF IT has all the elements of being a selection, but there are a few doubts too. He didn’t win his opening race of last season (was 8th of 12) and altho’ he’s won on fast going he does look like he does his best work when he gets proper “good” going. Don’t forget this is 6f and he was well beaten over 6f (and 7f) last year at York – altho’ he finishes his races as tho’ he’ll stay 6f easily. If you can get 7/2, then he will be worth a small wager (eg, £10 win) but he does not have enough going for him to be a “firm” blog selection.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Doctor, Doctor...

The blog ended the jumps season on a high and I reckon all-in-all the blog was a success over the season as a whole. The blog ended the season 10.0625pts in profit on a turnover of 109.50pts (Return on Investment, ROI = 9.19%).

There were some great ‘highs’ such as nominating BALLABRIGGS as 1 of 3 National selections on the day (but he was the only selection nominated as a “win” wager), but there is room for improvement. For instance, more consideration will be given to stakes placed during the summer months, to reflect confidence behind the selection. I am also aware that some visitors are not comfortable with the ‘points’ system of staking. So, along with the points system, I will be advising what wagers I am actually placing in cash terms. I operate on £40 a point, so a ½pt eachway wager is £20 eachway.

I am also aware that there are many ways to make a profit on the exchanges these days, and to help readers take advantage when I spot an opportunity to “lay” a horse before the off, or in-running, or to “back-to-lay”, or an antepost opportunity whereby you can back and then lay-off the wager before the race has even been run for a “free” wager, then I’ll do so. I will also continue to provide the narrative (even tho’ there are some people who criticise me for so). It has to be appreciated that when I write the blog I may not have all the information to hand to allow me to recommend a firm wager. For instance, the weather forecast may predict a chance of rain which may turn the going from “good” to “soft” and going changes WILL affect how a race will be run and the eventual result.

Onto todays racing which provides Jump racing at Exeter and Towcester, and Flat racing at Redcar and Windsor. The meeting at Exeter looks dire, altho’ the opening “seller” may provide an opportunity. The morning fav was the ex-Stoute trained RHYTON, but he’s been supplanted by Jewellery. There has also been some support for Emerald Glade who ran well LTO until feeling the effects of a return off a long break. For me, this race revolves around the good-to-firm going. Jewellery has never acted on it, on flat or jumps. Emerald Glade has, but that was a lowly class 6 h’cap off OR54. RHYTON was much more impressive on the flat when winning his 2nd start at Pontefract on good-to-firm over 12f when he showed plenty of guts to battle back from what looked like an impossible position. RHYTON is now 9/4 (from 7/4) and is looking value. Racing is not much better at Towcester, so I’ll give that meeting a miss.

The Flat season form needs to settle down a bit before I start recommending wagers. What I am doing is studying the results and putting together a list of horses that I consider are well handicapped. Hopefully, that will provide me (and readers of the blog) with a steady stream of profits from a limited number of wagers throughout the season. There is an interesting 6f race ar Redcar at 4:20, and the fav Dark Lane is a horse that has not progressed as was expected since he won in May 2009. He does seem to run best on his return off a long break, and that puts me off him today as he won LTO just 7-days ago. Normally, I go for horses coming back to the track within 7-days of a win, but not today. The 2nd fav Arrys Orse looks harshly treated to me on OR83 as he “earned” that rating when winning his 2nd start at Lingfield over a year ago. Nothing behind his that day has turned out since to give merit to the rating of Arrys Orse, so I’ll pass him over. 3rd fav Jarrow has never won on turf in 12 starts – but has 2 wins on the AW from just 4 starts! That should tell you where he likes racing, and bring you to the next in the market, DOCTOR PARKES. Off since last September, he’s won before off a long break and on good-to-firm going. He also ran a cracker when 2nd (btn ½ a length) on good-to-firm over 6f last May. He ran consistently well without getting his head in front all summer, mainly in class 3 handicaps, so this drop in grade to class 4 looks an easy introduction to the season. At 8/1 with Ladbrokes , he looks the value.
I like Windsor as a course for a wager, but I can’t see anything there this evening to interest me.

There are no blog selections today, but I would not put you off having small wagers on RHYTON and DOCTOR PARKES if you feel in need to have a wager. I will be having £10 win on RHYTON at 9/4 (or longer if I can get it), and £5 eachway on DOCTOR PARKES.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Signing-off the Jumps with the winner of the National

The horse I expect to win the National is BALLABRIGGS.

That’s what I wrote in yesterday’s blog (which was actually published on the web at 22:17 on Friday evening). Could I make myself any clearer as to which horse I expected to win the race? Some people did, and thought I confused matters by discussing the chances of other horses in the race. Well, I’m not letting them spoil my party.

I reckon I got this result absolutely spot on.
Of how the race would be run, I wrote:
the best place to be is “in-the-van”, and that if your horse isn’t within 6-lengths of the leader in the 1st-8 jumping “Bechers” on the 2nd-circuit, then it’s not going to win.
BALLABRIGGS was never out of the 1st-3 in the entire race, and led most of the way.

Of 3rd placed Don’t Push It, I wrote:
if he finishes then he will be in the 1st-6 without a doubt, and there's nothing from last year’s race that can beat him – but 9/1 is no value.

Of The Midnight Club who came 6th (which was paid as a place by Vic Chandler who I recommended having your wagers with):
he’s on a good mark of OR149 but he would not be able to hold-off DON’T PUSH IT

Of Big Fella Thanks, who faded from a prominent position at the last fence to finish 7th, I wrote:
He was 4th last year (and 6th the year before) so he knows what to do, but he’s unlikely to win as he’s got nothing left at the end of the race to win it – he’ll just plod home in his own time; but at 16/1 if he’s 6th then Vic Chandler will pay you £50 for your £10 eachway wager (£20 staked) on him, at 6/4 to get round in one piece, it’s a no thanks; we want a winner.

And a winner is what I gave you – BALLABRIGGS @ ½pt win @ 16/1

I also advised another couple of small eachway wagers on The Tother One and West End Rocker, but both of those horses fell. I did think immediately after the race that they were the horse that suffered fatalities, but I was wrong about that (can’t get everything right).

From the Horse Alert List, PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE made it a cracking day for the blog winning at 10/1. I did think the going was too quick for him, so I did not advise a wager. However, he was running so well during the race that it was clear the ground was not a problem and, as such, I took 7/1 in-running with Betfair. I understand that’s no help to traditional punters, but there are many ways to win these days and you have to take advantage of what is available. That is why I provide a narrative (even tho’ some out there criticise me for doing that) so that, when combined with the very latest information, you can make your own mind up whether or not to bet.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Grand National selections

A great comeback for the blog on Day 2 of the Grand National meeting at Aintree.
As I wrote in my review of the Mildmay Novices Chase, in my opinion the Irish novice chase form has been vastly under-estimated this season. I pointed out that QUITO DE LA ROQUE should not be easily dismissed having only just been beaten by subsequent RSA winner Bostons Angel on 28-Dec. The “quick” going was put forward as an obstacle, but his half-brother Kazal was 3rd in the World Hurdle on good going, so even tho’ he has never run on ground this quick before, his breeding suggested he should handle it – and did he! Despite 3 horrendous jumping errors which would have stopped a lesser horse, he showed resolution and bravery to run-out a good winner at 6/1 (I managed to obtain 8.00 on Betfair, and he touched 8.40). He was only recommended to a ½pt stake, but it put 3pts in the bag. The form has already been considered suspect as Sarando at 50/1 was only beaten a neck into 2nd, but he’s been slugging around on heavy going this season and clearly appreciated this better ground, and he was only beaten a length by top novice The Minack over hurdles when receiving just 4lb – with the odds-on Master Of The Hall well behind in that race – so this was no fluke for Sarando.

I thought the going would be too quick for Master Minded and, even if it wasn’t, that the 2m4f trip of the Melling Chase would be too much for him – but I was wrong on both counts. He was the only horse still on the bridle with 3 to jump, and ran-out a very impressive winner. I thought he might be a King George horse immediately after the race, but 3-mile at Kempton is asking a bit much, and the Ryanair in 2012 may be more to his liking. But its back to the drawing board for Somersby, who I reckon is an OR162 horse, which is the rating he earned for 3rd in the Tingle Creek Chase last December. He is just too one-paced at this level, and has only one option left to take, 3-mile chases.

Onto Saturday, and we have to start with the Grand National.
First, bookmaker Victor Chandler is paying 6-places at quarter-odds on the National. This is an immense offer and means that there is a good possibility of finding a long-odds selection in the places. Don’t go to a bookmaker paying only the 1st-4 places.
After watching the Foxhunters on Thursday and the Topham Chase on Friday, it is fairly obvious that the going on the National course is quick and it is likely that the 1st circuit will be run at a furious pace which will mean plenty of mistakes and fallers. To avoid being brought-down by a fallen horse, the best place to be is “in-the-van”, that is with the leading bunch. Last year, 5 of the 1st-6 finishers were prominent throughout the race, and the winner DON’T PUSH IT was tracking the leaders for most of the 2nd circuit before leading from the 2nd-last. I think it’s safe to say that if your horse isn’t within 6-lengths of the leader and in the within the 1st-8 jumping “Bechers” on the 2nd-circuit, then it’s not going to win. Mon Mome came from well-off the pace in 2009, but he benefitted from the fall of leader Black Apalachi at “Bechers” on the 2nd-circuit, which slowed the whole race down.
From the top, we have DON’T PUSH IT and if he finishes then he will be in the 1st-6 without a doubt. Can he win again? Personally, if he’s fit to run as well as he did last year, I’d say yes! I reckon this is an easier race than last year, and he’s only 10lb worse-off with State Of Play (btn 25 lengths in 2010), and just 2lb worse-off with Big Fella Thanks (btn 28 lengths); there's nothing from last year’s race that can beat him – but 9/1 is no value. I recommended him at 16/1 on 31st March.
The next prominent runner I like is BIG FELLA THANKS. He was 4th last year (and 6th the year before) so he knows what to do, but he’s unlikely to win as he’s got nothing left at the end of the race to win it – he’ll just plod home in his own time; but at 16/1 if he’s 6th then Vic Chandler will pay you £50 for your £10 eachway wager (£20 staked) on him, at 6/4 to get round in one piece, it’s a no thanks; we want a winner. THE MIDNIGHT CLUB won’t be allowed to be far off the pace by jockey Ruby Walsh, but I feel he is another who is without gears at the business end. Undoubtedly, he’s on a good mark of OR149 (possibly should be on OR156 based on Punchestown 3rd to Kempes) but he would not be able to hold-off DON’T PUSH IT. Other prominent runners I Iike are BALLABRIGGS and QUINZ.
I think BALLABRIGGS enjoys big fields rather than small ones, and that is more the reason he was beaten LTO – that, and the trip was under 3-mile and so suited Skippers Brig more. At 16/1, he looks good value to go close as he’s been prepared for this all season. That’s not the case with the novice QUINZ, altho’ he has improved immensely this season with every race. The big doubt I have over him is the going, as he flopped badly here at the National meeting on similar going, and his best performance by far have come on good-to-soft.
Other prominent runners that are on longer odds are THE TOTHER ONE @ 66/1; KILLYGLEN @ 66/1 and WEST END ROCKER @ 33/1.
WEST END ROCKER hated the heavy going LTO and was pulled-up, so that run can be ignored; but before that he won a couple of races in grand style and he won’t lack stamina for this.
KILLYGLEN is not one to put your faith in and he lost his way last season and has been hurdling in Ireland. He does have ability tho’ and it just depends on whether he can show it, but he does like to lead.
THE TOTHER ONE has bags of ability too, and plenty of stamina judged on his resolute performance in the Hennessey last November when 4th. He does take the odd liberty with his fences, but manages to stay upright, so his rider will be in for a helter-skelter of a ride. But, if Ruby Walsh were riding him, he’d be 16/1, and so at 66/1 he has to be a one for the shortlist.

The horse I expect to win the National is BALLABRIGGS.

Selections
Aintree 4:15, BALLABRIGGS, ½pt win @ 16/1 (Stan James)
Aintree 4:15, WEST END ROCKER, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Vic Chandler, ¼ odds to 6-places)
Aintree 4:15, THE TOTHER ONE, ¼pt eachway @ 66/1 (Vic Chandler, ¼ odds to 6-places)
Total = 1½pts staked

Of the other racing at Aintree, in the opener I like the look of RECESSION PROOF at 12/1. He was staying on best of all in the Supreme Novices and this trip looks perfect for him. In the 2nd race on the card, I want to support Ghizao but fear this going is too quick for him. Then again, I said the same about his stablemate Master Minded, so perhaps his trainer Nicholls thinks there is enough juice in the ground to suit him. I also note that Timmy Murphy has been replaced by Ruby Walsh. Still, 100/30 as I write looks inviting for what is, in essence, a 2-horse race. I cannot see PEDDLERS CROSS being beaten in the Liverpool Hurdle, as I think the further he goes the better he is (he is the one horse I think that could give Big Bucks a race), but at 6/4 there is no room for error.
The 3m1f handicap should go to Bensalem, even tho’ he’s been raised 10lb for his Festival win. However, his cover has been blown and it maybe that he is vulnerable to a horse who’s stamina is yet to be exploited. Such a horse is from my Horse Alert List, PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE who tries a 3-mile plus trip for the 1st time since November when unseating his rider at the final fence when running well. He meets the winner of that race, Hey Big Spender, on 16lb better terms and I reckon he will go close in this, tho’ the going may be a bit quick for his and that is a worry. As such, odds of 11/1 are not enough for me, and I’d not consider stepping into the ring unless he goes to 16’s.

That’s it for the “Jumps” Season. I’m having a week off with my 8yo son, and I’ll write-up a summary page for the blog over the next few days. When the blog returns on Monday 18th April it will be focusing on the Flat Racing until the first Sunday in October which, as all flat racing aficionados know, is the day the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe is run at Longchamps.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Grand National meeting - Day 2

The day after I decide to ditch eachway betting for win-only, both my selections are placed at decent odds. CAROLE’S LEGACY ran a very game race to be 2nd to Nacarat (advised at 6/1, SP was 4/1) with the fav Denman well beaten. I am sure that had the race been run at a true pace, then CAROLE’S LEGACY would’ve won this, but the race was run at a crawl for the first mile with the pace dictated by eventual winner Nacarat. I “tweeted” mid-race than Nacarat was turning the race into a 2-mile chase, and that’s just what he did – to his advantage! A race won more by jockey tactics than the ability of the horse. That race was followed-up by another game performance by my other selection MISTER APPLE’S. He was going well till meeting the large open-ditch (the 3rd fence in the National “proper”) which he did not like at all. After that, his rider did well to avoid a number of fallen horses which impeded his progress, and he stayed-on well to be 4th at 16/1. Both these selections were advised as ½pt win wagers, so a point lost – but if you’d gone eachway then you’d have come away with a profit - and a 1pt eachway double would have returned a whopping 9pt profit.

Of the other races, BIG BUCKS confirmed my opinion that he is at least 10lbs better than Grand Crus and sauntered to an easy win. He probably works harder than this on the gallops at Ditcheat! I was impressed with the run of Carlito Brigante in this, and tho’ the 3-mile trip was too much for him, a return to 2½ miles will bring out the best in him. Altho’ not nominated as a selection, PALAWI ran a cracker (I took 40’s on betfair, and layed-off at 5.0 to secure a good 7pt profit) and was still in the lead when falling at the 2nd-last hurdle. He brought-down Grandouet who I think would eventually have won this as the fav Zarkandar struggled to beat Kumbeshwar on the run-in. And finally, WISHFUL THINKING routed Medermit with an exemplary front-running performance – and that suggests that his Festival conqueror Noble Prince is some horse.

Grand National news, and the final 40 starters have been selected – no reserves. I will have a final look thru’ the runners after I’ve posted this blog and I will probably post up the blog for Saturday later-on this evening. I like to enjoy the build-up to the race in the morning, so I want to have the blog written and out of the way.

Onto today’s meeting, and the opener looks tricky with several looking to retrieve reputations and others (who missed the Festival at Cheltenham) hoping to cement theirs. I’ll pass this race over.

Next, the Mildmay Novices Chase has been won by some very good horses. Someone asked me yesterday if I knew a horse that could beat Long Run in the Gold Cup, and last year’s winner of this – Burton Port – immediately sprung to mind. They may be stablemates, but then so are Denman and Kauto Star. The Irish novice chase form has been vastly under-estimated this season, and Irish horses won the RSA Chase with Bostons Angel; the “Jewson” with Noble Prince; and provided the 3rd in the Arkle with Realt Dubh who was the only Irish representative. As such, QUITO DE LA ROQUE should not be easily dismissed. He was only just beaten by RSA winner Bostons Angel on 28-Dec, and he’s clearly improved since then. His half-brother Kazal was 3rd in the World Hurdle in 2008 so even tho’ he has never run on going this quick before, I reckon he should handle it. Of the others, Wayward Prince has had a hard season, and Master Of The Hall needs to prove he’s not a right-hand track specialist.

The Melling Chase, due to the going and trip, looks a toss-up between last year’s winner Albertas Run and Kalahari King and of the pair, I would favour Albertas Run on account that he is a better jumper of a fence. Both the going and trip are against Master Minded, and of the others I am drawn to FRENCH OPERA at odds of 12/1. He is only 4lb off Albertas Run on official ratings and he stays this trip and will love the going. Somersby was beaten over C&D last year by Mad Max. For me, FRENCH OPERA is huge value.

I’m not going anywhere near the other races on the card, altho’ there are 2 from the Horse Alert List in the Topham Chase; PICKAMUS and FREE WORLD. To be fair, this could be the race both of them may relish as PICKAMUS loves to bowl-along in front and he will stay this trip and love the going. He is not a 66/1 chance (current odds) and I will be having a tiny wager on him with Bet365 who (with some other bookmakers) are offering 5 places at eachway. FREE WORLD is a classy performer at his best – he was 2nd to Riverside Theatre at Kempton last November – and he should stay this trip and will also love the going. He’s been dropped to OR146 (from OR153) and again, he’s no 66/1 chance. Also consider Barry Geraghty who is without a ride in tomorrow’s National (Northern Alliance was withdrawn yesterday) and he will be giving his all on SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM.


Selections:
Aintree 2:30, QUITO DE LA ROQUE, ½pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Aintree 3:05, FRENCH OPERA, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
PLUS: QUITO DE LA ROQUE and FRENCH OPERA, ¼pt eachway double
(Note: Bet365 pay quarter-odds a place eachway)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Grand National meeting - Day 1

All eyes are focused on the Aintree meeting today, which starts off with a cracker of a race – the rematch of Big Bucks vs Grand Crus. As per my assessment prior to the World Hurdle at the Festival, in my opinion Big Bucks has yet to be fathomed out – we just don’t know how good he is. Based on what we saw at Cheltenham, I reckon Big Bucks is a 10lb better horse (at least). It will take a change in tactics (Grand Crus to force the pace?) and a trip into the unknown for both these horses if we are perhaps to see a different winner. A race to watch and savour.

I have had good fortune in the past in the novices hurdle and while this race looks likely to be dominated by Zarkandar and Grandouet, the Aintree “Mildmay” circuit favours bold front-runners and PALAWI has certainly got his act together since a poor run at Cheltenham last November. Trainer John Quinn has an admirable strike-rate at Aintree, which improves to 4 wins from 15 runners with hurdlers, and this is his only runner today. He may not win, but he may not win, but 5.50 in the place-only market looks fair value.

The feature race is the Totesport Bowl, a Grade 1 chase over 3m1f. The fav is Denman and, while I thought he was a cert to be placed in the Gold Cup last month, this circuit and the fact that the race comes so quickly after that means that the “layers” are after him and he’s currently 11/8. If you think he is still capable of a 170+ performance, then he should win. But, I reckon the Gold Cup performance was not as strong as it has been rated, and my assessment of that form (rightly or wrongly) is at 163, and that puts CAROLE’S LEGACY with her 7lb mares allowance right in the mix. CAROLE’S LEGACY stays 3-mile plus (whereas Punchestowns, Deep Purple and Nacarat are doubtful stayers), and she will be in-the-van and able to test the jumping ability of Denman which we know can fall to pieces when under pressure. At 13/2, she looks the value in this race for a small wager.

The Foxhunters is the amateurs “National” and jockey skills plays a big part in finding the winner. I’m not impressed by Willie Twiston-Davies on Baby Run. I’ve no complaints with Sam Waley-Cohen, but his mount Turko can make appalling mistakes, as he did at Sandown – and that race was won by MISTER APPLE’S. He’s run twice since coming back off a 467-day lay-off and almost beat Ice Tea on that comeback run, but he ran a gutsy performance to win at Sandown LTO. Talented rider Mr R Mahon (who rides for Paul Nicholls and will be on The Tother One in the National on Saturday) is in the plate and I’m confident he should be shorter than 16/1 for this.

I’m going to give the Red Rum Chase a miss as this usually goes to a surprise winner. The Manifesto Novices Chase should go to WISHFUL THINKING, whose form at the Festival was top class, even in defeat. However, I was hoping that the presence of Medermit and Royal Charm would mean we would get odds of 11/4 or longer, so at the moment I’m not tempted. The final race on the card looks a real headache, so I’m not tempted to go there.

Grand National news, and I’ve learned that Northern Alliance is now a non-runner. He was my first-choice, so back to the drawing board. Coming into the race are Skippers Brig, Royal Rosa and Golden Kite. Skippers Brig is one from my Horse Alert List and tho’ he’s won twice for me this season, I fear he’ll need it to be good-to-soft at least and also I doubt he stays much beyond 3-mile. Of my shortlisted runners (see adjacent page), I am starting to focus on THE TOTHER ONE and GRAND SLAM HERO, but sneaking into my thoughts is previous National winner COMPLY OR DIE who I feel has been given an outstanding chance with just 10st 8lb to carry – which is 1lb less than what he won with.

Selections:
Aintree 3:05, CAROLE’S LEGACY, ½pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Aintree 3:40, MISTER APPLES, ½pt win @ 16/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked

If you want to play these as “eachway” selections, please do.

I have added a new page to the blog which provides a list of all the selections advised during the jumps season from 1st November 2010 to 31st March 2011. There is also an analysis of the types of bet (win or eachway) with a profit/loss calculation. Remarkably, despite a pretty awful Cheltenham Festival, as at 1st April the blog was still in profit from advised selections to the tune of 3.5675pts. I have checked the figures (and checked again to make sure), but if you do spot an error then please advise me via the “comments”. The overall conclusion is that ‘eachway’ wagers should be avoided from now on. What I reckon that I’m doing is looking too much for that elusive quality, “value”. But there is not much point in finding a horse at 16/1 if its “true” odds are 8/1 – and then it comes in 4th of 12. I have read somewhere before, and I think I need to pin it up above my desk, that an eachway selection should be capable of winning the race it’s in, before you strike the wager.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

A Wish List for the Aintree Grand National meeting

There are 4 meetings today – 2 on the All-Weather at Kempton and Lingfield, and 2 on the turf at Beverley and Nottingham – and all are on the “flat”. It is the day before Aintree and (quite naturally) there is a break in the jump racing calendar so that no injuries may occur to jockeys on the eve of the most dramatic race meeting of the year.

There was no return from the blog selection yesterday, VAMIZI. Despite starting the fav for the race, I was a bit disappointed that his odds weren’t shorter considering that there had been several withdrawals as – in my opinion - the going was firmer than the reported “good”. That probably prevented connections “lumping on”, and from the off VAMIZI did not look happy, making errors and having to be driven along. His only win came on soft going at Exeter, and I would expect him to be put away now till the autumn. Eventual winner of the race Drybrook Bedouin could be called the winner a long way out as he was staying on best of all, and as he was only 2lbs better-off for a 7-length beating by VAMIZI when they last met, the fact he won this so easily suggests that had the ground had a bit more “juice” in it, the VAMIZI would have taken a lot of beating. As such, VAMIZI looks to be on a good mark of OR118, and he’s in the notebook for next season.

With there being no jump racing today, there is no selection. Even so, it always pays to watch as much racing as possible at this time of the year as you can latch onto well-handicapped horses, especially amongst the 3yo’s having their handicap debuts over what is probably their optimum trips (having been raced over shorter trips as 2yo’s).

At Exeter yesterday, trainer Charlie Longsdon had a double from his two runners, and that means he’s won 5 races with his 9 runners this month – and yesterday was only the 5th April. He has several multiple entries over the next few days and it will be worth noting the following when they run: Ostland (2 entries); Hazy Tom (3); Paintball (2); Hayjack (3); and The Gurner (2).

Looking at the Aintree meeting as a whole, I’m looking forward to the following:-
• Grand Crus being asked to “go for it” from the off and making it a true test of speed and stamina in the Liverpool Hurdle which opens the meeting on Thursday.
• Medermit making it 8 wins from 14 starts when not racing at Cheltenham.
• Voy Por Ustedes taking the Melling Chase.
• Free World scooting home in the Topham Chase at 40/1 (I can dream, can’t I?).
• Ghizao showing his true form in the Maghull Novices chase on Saturday.
• Peddlers Cross proving he is a true champion in the Aintree Hurdle.
• Lastly, that the Grand National is a true classic of a race.

New of the National, and yesterday I said that “unless there is a downpour of biblical proportions in the next few days, the going will almost certainly be "good" on Saturday”, and it could be that today that may happen! There has been more overnight rain and the going is good-to-soft over the entire course now. Worse is that a major rainstorm is forecast over South-West Scotland (up to 100mm of rain may fall) and should that storm veer south then we could be on for a wet and muddy Grand National on Saturday. If that is the case, then we could be looking at less than half-a-dozen finishers.

News of my shortlisted horses for the big race, and NORTHERN ALLIANCE has suffered a bruised foot. He will be left in the race till Saturday morning but, if he’s not recovered he won’t run.

Don’t forget, I’ve added an “alert” system to the blog (see adjacent link). If you click on it, and add your email address then, when the page is updated, you will be sent an email. It’s a system that I’ve used with other websites for several years and is very simple and very good.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

"Good" going predicted for Saturday's Grand National

There is a full day of racing today with a jump meeting at Exeter, a flat (turf) meeting at Pontefract, and an AW meeting at Kempton – so something for everyone!

But first, the Grand National update. There were several big names omitted from the 5-day declarations yesterday. Syncronised and Notre Pere (both previous Welsh National winners) were withdrawn, as was Midnight Chase. Willie Mullins pulled-out both Scotsirish and Ballytrim - but that let in the low-weighted Mullins pair of ARBOR SUPREME and OUR MONTY. Arbor Supreme was 16/1 for last year’s National and fell at the Chair. This year, he was last seen coming home 2nd to the other Mullins horse The Midnight Club who is this year’s National fav at 8/1. ARBOR SUPREME will be 10lb better-off with The Midnight Club for a length beating so he is the value. However, he is a very tricky ride and needs cajoling along; he's not won in 11 races since Nov-2008 and he needs the word "soft" in the going description. OUR MONTY is a bit of a dark horse. He'll have been off the track for 510 days next Saturday having last raced in Nov 2009. He learnt his trade in the point-to-point field and is clearly a decent horse at the level he's been racing at - but beating the OR106 Glenquinn Castle at levels LTO was not a difficult race for him. His previous handler said of him "He's a character and likes to get his own way, he doesn't like being in the middle of horses." If that's the case, then I cannot see the National being his sort of race.

Unless there is a downpour of biblical proportions in the next few days, the going will almost certainly be "good" on Saturday, and despite some overnight rain last night, Aintree's Clerk of the Course has declared he may consider watering later in the week as drier weather expected.

At Exeter, the South West Marathon Chase over 3m6f is the highlight. Course specialist VAMIZI was only just beaten here LTO and with Rate Of Knots likely to be a non-runner, his odds could contract from the 5/1 available with Bet365 right now. What I like about VAMIZI is that he’s straightforward and gives his all – but he is a bit one-paced at the end and, if it’s a battle, it may pay to lay-off you wager at 1.80. Even so, he is the one to be on in this race as he loves Exeter and has stood up to his racing well this season.

Selection:
Exeter 3:30, VAMIZI, 1pt win @ 5/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Don’t forget, I’ve added an “alert” system to the blog (see adjacent link). If you click on it, and add your email address then, when the page is updated, you will be sent an email. It’s a system that I’ve used with other websites for several years and is very simple and very good.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Grand National history lesson

The was no blog posted yesterday (Sunday).
It’s a big week this week, with the jump season coming to an effective close with the Grand National next Saturday providing the finale. The meeting at Aintree on Thursday, Friday and Saturday is a cracker right from the opening race which will feature Big Bucks in the 3-mile hurdle. I have a real soft spot for the Aintree meeting having been brought up in the nearby town of Maghull (about 4-miles away from the course) where members of my family still live. “National” aficionados will (of course) know that the very first Grand National Steeplechase was run at Maghull in 1836 (and again in 1837 and 1838) before the race was transferred to its current location at Aintree. Apparently the transfer was due to some sort of land dispute, and over rights to the race. In those days, horseracing was not the huge draw on the public that it is today; and the feature event of the area north of Liverpool was the Waterloo Cup. This is (and was until recently) the premier sporting event in the land, and was hare coursing on land at Altcar (the “Withins”). Have you ever watched the movie “The 39 Steps”? In the scene in the Music Hall, the Memory Man is asked a question:
“What won the Cup in 1926?” to which Mr Memory responds; “Cup? Waterloo, Football, or Tea, Sir?”
Such were the crowds that were attracted to the Waterloo Cup in the 1830’s (estimated at 100,000 and that is before cars and railways!), that to keep the people entertained on the “rest” day of the of the Waterloo Cup (which was held over 3-days, the middle day being the rest-day), a local hotelier named William Lynn, owner of the Waterloo Hotel in Liverpool (this position is now occupied by two old pubs; the Midland and the Central which are opposite the exit/entrance to the Liverpool Central train station) created the race.
William Lynn apparently died penniless; the Waterloo Cup is no more having been outlawed; but the Grand National remains as the greatest single annual sporting event in the World.

The Aintree meeting this week will feature many of the horses that ran at Cheltenham a few weeks back, but these two courses cannot be compared – they are like chalk and cheese.

There is a jumps meeting at Kelso this afternoon, but there is nothing there that catches my eye. I’ve had a long look at the 2m6f hurdle at 5:00, which is a class 3 handicap. Kelso is a sharp Left-handed track that (in my opinion) favours course-specialists and there are 6 previous course winners from the 15 declared runners. The trip will also stretch the stamina of a few, and that includes the likely fav Moon Indigo. This race could go to an improver, such as Shooting Times, or 1 of the 3 C&D winners of Sendali, The Shy Man or Stopped Out. For me, Stopped Out who is the only runner today for Kate Walton is the one that I am most interested in, but I cannot advise a solid wager given the question-marks over many in this race.

I’ll be watching the flat racing at today’s meetings at Windsor and Folkestone and making notes of any that look worthy of following. Having watched Saturdays at Doncaster, it seems fairly obvious that those running on the stands side (drawn high) were at an advantage. As such, in the opening race over a mile won by Eton Forever (drawn 16 of 22), I was taken by the strong run in the final 2f of JUSTONEFORTHEROAD (drawn 10) who ran up the middle-to-far side of the course. With 3 wins on good-to-firm going, he will appreciate the summer months and seems to have returned this season a better horse than he was last season. In the Lincoln, it was the run of DUBAI HILLS (drawn 6 of 21) and ETON RIFLES (drawn 9) that took the eye. Interestingly, Eton Rifles was 2nd to Justonefortheroad over 7f at York last October! Dubai Hills has transferred his vastly improved form on the AW this winter onto turf. Both these horses were trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, and the way they stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that they could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions.

The Grand National betting is taking more shape as my “principle” selection Northern Alliance has shortened to 40/1 (from 50’s) and is 33’s with several bookies. Most bookmakers now go “non-runner, no bet”, but some do not – so check before you wager.

Lastly, I’ve added an “alert” system to the blog (see adjacent link). If you click on it, and add your email address then, when the page is updated, you will be sent an email. It’s a system that I’ve used with other websites for several years and is very simple and very good.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Geraghty booked for NORTHERN ALLIANCE

The way my selections have been going lately has made my have a think about where I may be going wrong. I’m sure I’ve said it before but, if not, I’ll say it again; confidence is a major part of being a successful punter. Without confidence, then you are not going to adequately “support” your selections – and that means when the winners come in, then you do not have the stake on to take advantage. My confidence did take a bit of a knock over the Cheltenham Festival, and from then on I seemed to be constantly chasing “value”.
What I have to ask is “am I really doing it right?” I’ve decided to take a step back and think a bit more before putting a selection onto the blog.

This week starts today with the first major handicap of the UK flat racing season – the (William Hill) Lincoln handicap over a mile at Doncaster. It’s not a race I place a wager on usually, and this year is going to be no different.

Neither of the 2 jumps meetings at Chepstow or Uttoxeter get me excited, so it looks like another day without a wager.

There was some great news for the antepost shortlist for the Grand National to be run next Saturday 9th April, and that is that Barry Geraghty has been booked to ride my 1st-choice NORTHERN ALLIANCE. If you look back at the past couple of days blogs, you will see comments advising of the news, and also that I have advised taking the 50/1 on offer to ¼pt eachway. Bluesquare are offering “non-runner, no bet” (NRNB) and also paying 5 places eachway on the National, so if you have not already had a wager, this is the place to go. For odds comparison and terms, visit Oddschecker who detail all the terms on the screen.

The more I look at the formbook, the more excited I am about the chances of NORTHERN ALLIANCE and the booking of Barry Geraghty suggests connections mean business.

Antepost Selection – Grand National 9th April 2011
NORTHERN ALLIANCE, ¼pt eachway @ 50/1 with Bluesquare (NRNB & paying 5 places)
Total = ½pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Thank **** it's Friday!

The start of a new month, and the way the blog ended the last month then to put that one to bed is probably a good thing.

Yesterdays selection AZULADA BAY ran a stinker, despite being supported from an opening price of 11/1 in to 7/1. The horse looked fit beforehand too, but just was not interested in racing, and was pulled-up a long way out. It was made more galling by the fact that the other horse I was considering - Havingotascoobydo - won @ 9/4.

After a delayed start to March (was on holiday for a week) the blog selections got off with a bang with 3 winners on the trot, but then we went into the Cheltenham Festival and it was the worst set of results I’ve had at the Festival in years. I’ll make no excuses, just got it wrong. In many cases it was due to me trying to “beat the book” and looking for long-priced winners when the market leaders were the ones that I should have been focusing on. Not seeing the wood for the trees summed-up my Cheltenham Festival. I even overlooked a horse that I’d already realised was well-handicapped, race-fit and came into the Festival on the back of a win (I’m talking about Holmwood Legend) and it won at 25/1.

The entire March Selections as posted on the blog
[please note: I do not take into account any profit or loss from horses mentioned in the blog narrative. If I mention a horse in the narrative, it is because I consider that it has a good chance of winning the race. If it is not then posted-up as a “firm” selection, then I will provide the reason why. This is usually due to the lack of “value” in the odds (ie. I consider that it is a 3/1 chance, yet with the bookmakers it is at 7/4), or fitness is unconfirmed as the horse has not run in the previous 6-weeks (42 days)]

12th March, HOLMWOOD LEGEND, ½pt ew @ 14/1 WON …+8.40pts
14th March, RILEYEV, ½pt win @ 9/4 WON …+1.125pts
14th March, REMEMBER NOW, ½pt win @ 11/4 …WON …+1.375pts
15th March, WOLF MOON, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
15th March, THE RAINBOW HUNTER, ½pt eachway @ 25/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
15th March, PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt win @ 9/2 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
15th March, GARDE CHAMPETRE, ½p eachway @ 5/1 placed 2nd …+0.125pts
16th March, MAJOR MALARKEY, ½pt eachway @ 25/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
16th March, TORNADO BOB, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
16th March, WOOLCOMBE FOLLY, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
16th March, AEGEAN DAWN, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
16th March, TIGER O’TOOLE, ½pt eachway : 25/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
17th March, WISHFUL THINKING, 1pt win @ 7/2 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
17th March, KAYF ARAMIS, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
17th March, QUARTZ DE THAIX, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
17th March, FAR MORE SERIOUS, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
18th March, ZANIR, ½pt eachway @ 28/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
18th March, IMPERIAL COMMANDER, 1pt win @ 9/2 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
18th March, GENTLE GEORGE, ½pt eachway @ 50/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
22nd March, BETABOB, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
24th March, FREEZE UP, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
24th March, BENE LAD, 1pt win @ 4/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)
26th March, SCOTS DRAGOON, ½pt eachway @ 15/2 placed 3rd …+0.4375pts
31st March, AZULADA BAY, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 …Lost …(-1.00pts)

Monthly totals:
24 selections;
3 winners;
2 placed;
24pts staked
Monthly LOSS = 12.5375pts

The Antepost Selection List which was focused on the Cheltenham Festival, produced a 3.00pts profit (mainly due to Bostons Angel winning at 16/1); and that reduces the overall monthly loss to 9.5375pts.

As the blog went into March with a profit for the winter “jumps” racing (from 1st November 2010) of +6.605pts, that means for the entire jumps season to date – including the antepost book (see adjacent page for advices and results) – the blog is down 2.9325pts.

The task for April is to get the blog back into profit, but that’s not going to happen today. I’m having a day-off trawling thru’ the day’s racing form.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad