This is the 322nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
There was no selection posted on Betting League yesterday, which, given the way the results panned-out, was probably not the way to go.
At Bangor, old “friend” ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES won a hurdle at 25/1, making-all. Regular readers will know that “Shambo” (as he’s called at the stable) was on my list of horses to follow last jumps season, yet it was only after 4 pretty-awful runs that he won at 13/2 at Plumpton in March. He’s run another 4 times since, again showing nothing much, and has now popped-in at 25/1. Sometimes, when you see a glimmer of ability, you have to stick with it. Had I remained ‘faithful’, then I’d now be showing 23.50pts profit to a 1pt level-stake on Absolute Shambles.
And at Goodwood, the Totesport Mile went to BOOM AND BUST. I noted him when he won a class 4 handicap at Newbury in May over a mile in a very good time. I thought he’d defy a 6lb uplift for that, and he did winning NTO off OR86. Going for a ‘Listed’ race at Windsor was probably a step too far LTO, and dropped back to handicaps today he was never really a 25/1 chance given his style of running and rate of improvement this season. But I never had a penny on him as I’d been scared-off by the fav Green Destiny who (as it happened) never got a look-in and ran in much the same way as he did at Royal Ascot. A run best ignored, he’ll bounce back.
At Thirsk. I did write yesterday that John Dunlop was making a very long journey there with MISS TOPSY TURVY for the 4:05, and that filly duly won at 9/4. It just goes to show, I may be posting selections on Betting League but there’s still value in reading my blog. In the next race on the Thirsk card, it looked like JARROW was undone by his poor draw.
You can always be sure that if I’m posting a selection on Betting League then I believe the chance it has is a “value” chance, that its the odds do not reflect its potential to win. I am not a person who bet’s on a 25/1 runner that I think should by 10/1 but has 6 other rivals with better chances in the race. Any that I select, I consider to hold a winning chance and therefore should be one of the 1st-3 in the market and should be no longer odds than 5/1. From today, to view my selections on Betting League, new followers will have to pay a small monthly subscription. I’m sure you’ll find it profitable, as I’m not one who will post-up half a dozen every day and potentially wreck your betting bank. If I haven’t got a selection worthy of a wager with my own money, then I won’t post a selection up.
There is some good racing today, and at Doncaster I reckon the fav Bourne should not be troubled in taking the 3:55, but odds as I write are 5/2 and I reckon he’s more like a 7/2 chance. At Goodwood, I’d love to name the winner of the Stewards Cup, but I find these cavalry charge sprints a complete lottery and reckon you could run the race a dozen times and have a dozen winners. That said, the blog “sprinterstogo” (see adjacent link) has done an analysis and has come up with a shortlist – take a look. There are also good meetings at Newmarket and Thirsk, and I reckon to find value I’m going to have to look there.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 30 July 2011
Friday, 29 July 2011
Yes Sir! I can boogie...
This is the 321st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday’s selection posted-up by me on Betting League was a loser. BOOGIE SHOES still looks a horse with plenty of potential, but they need to perhaps run him on a flatter track. He should be capable of winning off OR93 and at the 2f-pole I thought he was going to burst thru’ – but that’s when he lost his balance! Watch the race again, he makes a violent swerve when asked for an effort. This is a repeat of what happened at Epsom (which I blamed on the track), and perhaps the horse cannot cope with undulations. I also thought he did not see out the trip as he lost about 2-lengths in the final 100 yards. So, he’ll remain in the notebook but I’ll be looking at a flatter track and a drop to perhaps 9-furlongs. Whatever, the handicapper should drop him a pound or two.
Today, there’s an interesting meeting at Thirsk.
Saeed bin Suroor makes a rare trip there (5 wins from 11 runners) so his entry in the 3:30 BURJ HATTA needs close inspection. And John Dunlop makes the very long journey here with MISS TOPSY TURVY in the 4:05. My old mate JARROW did not look like winning with 2-furlongs to go LTO, but win he did and in some style. Can he do it again in the 4:40 of a 3lb higher rating? His draw, 2 off 13, wont help.
At Goodwood, the opening race looks very tight with little on Official Ratings separating the likes of Redwood, Harris Tweed, Jukebox Jury, and Campanologist. I’m going to give the 21-runner Totesport Mile a wide berth.
So, what is my selection today? I posted-up BOOGIE SHOES early yesterday to take advantage of the odds (was 12/1 in the morning, with an SP of 8/1). Take a look at Betting League as that’s where you will find my selections, the link is adjacent. As a result of a cracking month of selections (4 winners from 9 selections) new followers will have to pay a small monthly subscription to view my selections. I’m sure you’ll find it profitable, and I’m not one who will post-up half a dozen every day and wreck your betting bank. If I haven’t got a selection worthy of a wager with my own money, then I won’t post a selection.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday’s selection posted-up by me on Betting League was a loser. BOOGIE SHOES still looks a horse with plenty of potential, but they need to perhaps run him on a flatter track. He should be capable of winning off OR93 and at the 2f-pole I thought he was going to burst thru’ – but that’s when he lost his balance! Watch the race again, he makes a violent swerve when asked for an effort. This is a repeat of what happened at Epsom (which I blamed on the track), and perhaps the horse cannot cope with undulations. I also thought he did not see out the trip as he lost about 2-lengths in the final 100 yards. So, he’ll remain in the notebook but I’ll be looking at a flatter track and a drop to perhaps 9-furlongs. Whatever, the handicapper should drop him a pound or two.
Today, there’s an interesting meeting at Thirsk.
Saeed bin Suroor makes a rare trip there (5 wins from 11 runners) so his entry in the 3:30 BURJ HATTA needs close inspection. And John Dunlop makes the very long journey here with MISS TOPSY TURVY in the 4:05. My old mate JARROW did not look like winning with 2-furlongs to go LTO, but win he did and in some style. Can he do it again in the 4:40 of a 3lb higher rating? His draw, 2 off 13, wont help.
At Goodwood, the opening race looks very tight with little on Official Ratings separating the likes of Redwood, Harris Tweed, Jukebox Jury, and Campanologist. I’m going to give the 21-runner Totesport Mile a wide berth.
So, what is my selection today? I posted-up BOOGIE SHOES early yesterday to take advantage of the odds (was 12/1 in the morning, with an SP of 8/1). Take a look at Betting League as that’s where you will find my selections, the link is adjacent. As a result of a cracking month of selections (4 winners from 9 selections) new followers will have to pay a small monthly subscription to view my selections. I’m sure you’ll find it profitable, and I’m not one who will post-up half a dozen every day and wreck your betting bank. If I haven’t got a selection worthy of a wager with my own money, then I won’t post a selection.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 28 July 2011
FRANKEL is supreme
This is the 320th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Wednesday), but there should be a selection today on what looks another great day’s racing at “Glorious” Goodwood.
I cannot let yesterday pass without a comment on what may have been one of the performances of all-time – it was certainly a performance of the like that had me clutching for comparisons. FRANKEL annihilated Canford Cliffs (a horse I consider one of the best “milers” we’ve seen in this country for a long time, and conqueror of Goldikova) with a ‘sustained’ burst of acceleration that left Canford Cliffs toiling in his wake. There were some who thought Canford Cliffs was not at his best as they searched for an excuse but, believe me, he came into this race fully prepared to run to his best. As such, FRANKEL’s 5-length advantage at the post suggests he is possibly the greatest ‘miler’ we’ve ever seen; one that I rate at 146 (there, I’ve said it). There is talk that FRANKEL will stay in training as a 4yo and we have to thank his owner Khalid Abdullah for such a magnificent gesture.
Today at Goodwood, we have a meeting that looks a cracker on paper. The opening 10-furlong Class 2 h’cap for 3yo’s is a tremendous race to open with. There are a number of improving horses that all look capable of better things than they’ve shown to-date. Belgian Bill, Fulgur, Chain Lightning, Labarinto, Boogie Shoes, Oceanway – the winner could be anyone of those and yet, none. Anyway, I think I’ve managed to find one in this that could have a better chance than his odds suggest.
The Group 2 King George Stakes will be over in a flash, and I am particularly forward to the performance of Humidor who will love this fast 5-furlongs. The presence of Kingsgate Native in this will ensure a decent market but he’s not the one I fancy to take this.
I am a fan of the long-distance races like the Goodwood Cup, but prefer them to be beyond 2-mile. At this trip, and on a course like Goodwood, I feel the need for abundant stamina in not necessary. But this field looks comparatively weak compared with previous years, and we may have a turn-up in this today.
So, what is my selection today? Take a look at Betting League (after noon today) as that’s where you will find it, the link is adjacent and it’s free, won’t cost you a penny. I’m on a bit of a roll this month with 4 winners from 8 selections so far, including Strong Suit on Tuesday (advised at 3/1).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Wednesday), but there should be a selection today on what looks another great day’s racing at “Glorious” Goodwood.
I cannot let yesterday pass without a comment on what may have been one of the performances of all-time – it was certainly a performance of the like that had me clutching for comparisons. FRANKEL annihilated Canford Cliffs (a horse I consider one of the best “milers” we’ve seen in this country for a long time, and conqueror of Goldikova) with a ‘sustained’ burst of acceleration that left Canford Cliffs toiling in his wake. There were some who thought Canford Cliffs was not at his best as they searched for an excuse but, believe me, he came into this race fully prepared to run to his best. As such, FRANKEL’s 5-length advantage at the post suggests he is possibly the greatest ‘miler’ we’ve ever seen; one that I rate at 146 (there, I’ve said it). There is talk that FRANKEL will stay in training as a 4yo and we have to thank his owner Khalid Abdullah for such a magnificent gesture.
Today at Goodwood, we have a meeting that looks a cracker on paper. The opening 10-furlong Class 2 h’cap for 3yo’s is a tremendous race to open with. There are a number of improving horses that all look capable of better things than they’ve shown to-date. Belgian Bill, Fulgur, Chain Lightning, Labarinto, Boogie Shoes, Oceanway – the winner could be anyone of those and yet, none. Anyway, I think I’ve managed to find one in this that could have a better chance than his odds suggest.
The Group 2 King George Stakes will be over in a flash, and I am particularly forward to the performance of Humidor who will love this fast 5-furlongs. The presence of Kingsgate Native in this will ensure a decent market but he’s not the one I fancy to take this.
I am a fan of the long-distance races like the Goodwood Cup, but prefer them to be beyond 2-mile. At this trip, and on a course like Goodwood, I feel the need for abundant stamina in not necessary. But this field looks comparatively weak compared with previous years, and we may have a turn-up in this today.
So, what is my selection today? Take a look at Betting League (after noon today) as that’s where you will find it, the link is adjacent and it’s free, won’t cost you a penny. I’m on a bit of a roll this month with 4 winners from 8 selections so far, including Strong Suit on Tuesday (advised at 3/1).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 27 July 2011
Clash of the Titans (and a 3/1 winner yesterday)
This is the 319th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
One selection was posted-up by me yesterday on Betting League, and STRONG SUIT did me proud winning in convincing manner at the advised odds of 3/1 (SP 5/2). When he beat my selection Codemaster into 2nd at Ascot, I wrote the next day that it was strong form that could be relied on.
That win means that, since I returned from holiday on 1st July, I have posted 8 selections on Betting League and 4 of them have won providing a profit of 19.50pts for an investment of 10pts – that’s a return on investment of 195%. Can’t be bad if you’ve been following my selections.
To recap, they’ve been:-
4th July, DRAGONERA, 2pts win @ 4/1; WON …8.00pts PROFIT
5th July, OFF CHANCE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
5th July, FLOWING CAPE , 1pt win @ 7/2; unplaced …1.00pts lost
8th July, CHARLIE COOL, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts PROFIT
9th July, AWZAAN, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
14th July, JARROW, 1pts win @ 7/1; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
22nd July, AWZAAN, 1pt win @ 13/2; unplaced …1.00pts lost
26th July, STRONG SUIT, 1pts win @ 3/1; WON …3.00pts PROFIT
Total = 19.50pts PROFIT
Without doubt, the highlight of the week is today’s clash between CANFORD CLIFFS and FRANKEL. Personally, I’m rooting for CANFORD CLIFFS who has done me proud as I’ve followed him since he finished 3rd in the 2010 Guineas. He’s won 5 times since then so I will not desert him now – in fact, I think he can win this!
If I am posting a selection it will be on Betting League. So, follow the adjacent link and find out, it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
One selection was posted-up by me yesterday on Betting League, and STRONG SUIT did me proud winning in convincing manner at the advised odds of 3/1 (SP 5/2). When he beat my selection Codemaster into 2nd at Ascot, I wrote the next day that it was strong form that could be relied on.
That win means that, since I returned from holiday on 1st July, I have posted 8 selections on Betting League and 4 of them have won providing a profit of 19.50pts for an investment of 10pts – that’s a return on investment of 195%. Can’t be bad if you’ve been following my selections.
To recap, they’ve been:-
4th July, DRAGONERA, 2pts win @ 4/1; WON …8.00pts PROFIT
5th July, OFF CHANCE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
5th July, FLOWING CAPE , 1pt win @ 7/2; unplaced …1.00pts lost
8th July, CHARLIE COOL, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts PROFIT
9th July, AWZAAN, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
14th July, JARROW, 1pts win @ 7/1; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
22nd July, AWZAAN, 1pt win @ 13/2; unplaced …1.00pts lost
26th July, STRONG SUIT, 1pts win @ 3/1; WON …3.00pts PROFIT
Total = 19.50pts PROFIT
Without doubt, the highlight of the week is today’s clash between CANFORD CLIFFS and FRANKEL. Personally, I’m rooting for CANFORD CLIFFS who has done me proud as I’ve followed him since he finished 3rd in the 2010 Guineas. He’s won 5 times since then so I will not desert him now – in fact, I think he can win this!
If I am posting a selection it will be on Betting League. So, follow the adjacent link and find out, it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Glorious Goodwood - Day 1
This is the 318th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Monday), but there should be a selection today on what looks a very attractive days racing. It is the opening day of “Glorious Goodwood”, tho’ having driven along the south coast from Brighton to Portsmouth this morning it does not look potentially glorious weather to me. The forecast is that is that the cloud will burn-off and going should remain consistent through the day.
Despite being one of the most anticipated meetings of the summer, the quality of racing at Goodwood this week can be a bit like the course – up and down. As such, there are a few races that I will avoid like the plague and the first off the list (unless you have stronger nerves than me) is the 5f class 3 handicap that closes the day’s racing at 5:25. I reckon you could have 6 goes at finding the winner in this race, and still be on a loser.
The 2yo races are not my cup o’ tea. The Molecombe may be a Group 3, but it is not the easiest race to fathom. If you’re playing it, take note that Andrew Balding (trains Charles The Great) is 0 from 25 with 2yo’s at Goodwood. That BORIS GRIGORIEV is 1 of only 3 horses sent over by AP O’Brien suggests that particular attention should be paid to him despite his lack of form.
The handicaps today look nightmarish, tho’ I know a lot of tipsters out there love the challenge. Goodwood is not a track that benefits those that have to come from off the pace with a run – unless they are incredibly well-treated and in possession of bucket-loads of luck. As such, I’m going to give both of the remaining handicaps a wide berth too.
Saying that, I expect Sir Michael Stoute to get off to a good start in the opening races with MODUN and FIORENTE. My doubts on MODUN are that his speed figures are not great.
That leaves just the Group 2 Bet365 Lennox Stakes over 7-furlongs. If Strong Suit is up to his Royal Ascot form (and there is no reason he won’t be) then he will take a lot of beating. He is easily the best of the 3yo’s, and 3yo’s have a great record in this race. Altho’ Delegator is a very good horse, and he ran a great race LTO from an awful draw, whether he can give Strong Suit 11lbs today is debatable over a trip that is perhaps not his best. For me, the danger is Red Jazz for whom 7-furlongs is his best trip. He may have been in need of a rest when flopping in this race last year as he’d had a busy campaign up to then. Today's conditions will be perfect for Red Jazz tho' and he will relish a return to 7-furlongs.
So, what is my selection today? Take a look at Betting League, that’s where you will find it, the link is adjacent and it’s free, won’t cost you a penny.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Monday), but there should be a selection today on what looks a very attractive days racing. It is the opening day of “Glorious Goodwood”, tho’ having driven along the south coast from Brighton to Portsmouth this morning it does not look potentially glorious weather to me. The forecast is that is that the cloud will burn-off and going should remain consistent through the day.
Despite being one of the most anticipated meetings of the summer, the quality of racing at Goodwood this week can be a bit like the course – up and down. As such, there are a few races that I will avoid like the plague and the first off the list (unless you have stronger nerves than me) is the 5f class 3 handicap that closes the day’s racing at 5:25. I reckon you could have 6 goes at finding the winner in this race, and still be on a loser.
The 2yo races are not my cup o’ tea. The Molecombe may be a Group 3, but it is not the easiest race to fathom. If you’re playing it, take note that Andrew Balding (trains Charles The Great) is 0 from 25 with 2yo’s at Goodwood. That BORIS GRIGORIEV is 1 of only 3 horses sent over by AP O’Brien suggests that particular attention should be paid to him despite his lack of form.
The handicaps today look nightmarish, tho’ I know a lot of tipsters out there love the challenge. Goodwood is not a track that benefits those that have to come from off the pace with a run – unless they are incredibly well-treated and in possession of bucket-loads of luck. As such, I’m going to give both of the remaining handicaps a wide berth too.
Saying that, I expect Sir Michael Stoute to get off to a good start in the opening races with MODUN and FIORENTE. My doubts on MODUN are that his speed figures are not great.
That leaves just the Group 2 Bet365 Lennox Stakes over 7-furlongs. If Strong Suit is up to his Royal Ascot form (and there is no reason he won’t be) then he will take a lot of beating. He is easily the best of the 3yo’s, and 3yo’s have a great record in this race. Altho’ Delegator is a very good horse, and he ran a great race LTO from an awful draw, whether he can give Strong Suit 11lbs today is debatable over a trip that is perhaps not his best. For me, the danger is Red Jazz for whom 7-furlongs is his best trip. He may have been in need of a rest when flopping in this race last year as he’d had a busy campaign up to then. Today's conditions will be perfect for Red Jazz tho' and he will relish a return to 7-furlongs.
So, what is my selection today? Take a look at Betting League, that’s where you will find it, the link is adjacent and it’s free, won’t cost you a penny.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 24 July 2011
Sad day at Ascot
This is the 317th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Saturday), but it was not for want of me not having an opinion on the day’s racing.
As events went on the day, I was called upon by my partner to drive her into town for an eye-test at 10am, and fully expected being back at my computer by 11:30 and able to post-up my blog at about noon. I never got home till 2:30pm in the afternoon and, by that time, I felt that had I posted-up any selections so late in the day that nobody (but me) would have been able to take advantage. I was asked on twitter what my selections were, and I gave 2 selections: KARAKA KACK who won at an SP of 5/1 (having been 9/1 all morning), and Wake Up Call who ran unplaced at 14/1. For those who are interested, this can be confirmed by reading my tweets on my twitter account @wayward_lad. This was on top of my positive words about NATHANIEL written on Thursday (see previous blog below) who won the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 11/2 (advised at 9/1).
I’ll not take credit for NATHANIEL as (as I wrote on Thursday) in recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he tipped NATHANIEL (as well as a couple of other winners) in his column in that paper. I did write tho’ that I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and that a 3yo “Derby winner” would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. Combined with the fact that NATHANIEL had been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race the mid-week odds of 9/1 were very generous, and even the SP of 11/2 was unrealistic given the opposition.
What was desperate about that race was the injury (which was horrific viewing) suffered by Rewilding. Unfortunately, horses are but flesh and bone and this accident could have happened anywhere. However, it happened on the BBC (of all channels) and the only possible grain of consolation to be drawn from the event is that it should (hopefully) speed-up the demise of horse-racing on that channel.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Saturday), but it was not for want of me not having an opinion on the day’s racing.
As events went on the day, I was called upon by my partner to drive her into town for an eye-test at 10am, and fully expected being back at my computer by 11:30 and able to post-up my blog at about noon. I never got home till 2:30pm in the afternoon and, by that time, I felt that had I posted-up any selections so late in the day that nobody (but me) would have been able to take advantage. I was asked on twitter what my selections were, and I gave 2 selections: KARAKA KACK who won at an SP of 5/1 (having been 9/1 all morning), and Wake Up Call who ran unplaced at 14/1. For those who are interested, this can be confirmed by reading my tweets on my twitter account @wayward_lad. This was on top of my positive words about NATHANIEL written on Thursday (see previous blog below) who won the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 11/2 (advised at 9/1).
I’ll not take credit for NATHANIEL as (as I wrote on Thursday) in recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he tipped NATHANIEL (as well as a couple of other winners) in his column in that paper. I did write tho’ that I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and that a 3yo “Derby winner” would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. Combined with the fact that NATHANIEL had been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race the mid-week odds of 9/1 were very generous, and even the SP of 11/2 was unrealistic given the opposition.
What was desperate about that race was the injury (which was horrific viewing) suffered by Rewilding. Unfortunately, horses are but flesh and bone and this accident could have happened anywhere. However, it happened on the BBC (of all channels) and the only possible grain of consolation to be drawn from the event is that it should (hopefully) speed-up the demise of horse-racing on that channel.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Get monkey that monkey off your back
This is the 316th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday. As I wrote on yesterday’s blog, racing this week has been uninspiring stuff and, when it’s like that, value winners can be hard to find. It’s easier to lose money at this game than win it, especially if the “monkey” on your shoulder is cajoling you to have a wager.
Thursday looks more interesting and, looking ahead to the weekend, we should be having a wager or two. As per last Wednesday, I’ve been looking thru’ the advance entries in the “Weekender” hoping to repeat last week’s winning wager on JARROW. If there is a wager on Thursday it’s likely to be at one of the evening meetings, so make sure you pay a visit to Betting League (see adjacent link) to check on what I may be advising. It’s free to register, and (at the moment) my selections are free to view for all.
Friday’s racing has better prospects, and the afternoon meeting at Ascot looks attractive. The 2-mile class 2 Brown Jack H’cap is usually a good pointer for the Cesarewitch and trainer Mark Johnston, who has had 2 wins and 2 placed from 7 runners in the race in the past 10 years, has 6 entered at the time of writing. There is also a cracking class 2 h’cap over 10f in which 3yo’s have a great record from a small representation; 3 wins and 3 places from just 10 runners. The evening meeting at York on Friday has some good racing culminating in the European Breeders Fund Stakes (Listed) for fillies over 10½f. It’s likely this will be a competitive renewal and I will be giving this race plenty of attention.
Saturday’s racing is all about the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 event over 12f at Ascot. This race was once the highlight of the summer with the best 3yo’s meeting the best of the older horses (that remained in training) over the “classic” trip of a mile & a half. The lack of the very best 3yo colts going for this race in the past 10-15 years has meant that it has lost some of its lustre. Personally, I believe that the challenge this race represents to a Derby-winning 3yo colt is too much at this stage of the season if that colt is to be then aimed at the “Arc” in October (the richest race in Europe over 12f). Earlier this week I “tweeted” that perhaps a way of rekindling entries from the top 3yo colts would be to swap dates for the race with the St Leger held in mid-September. The more I’ve thought of this, the better it seems (to me). The St Leger is hamstrung by both being over a mile & 6 furlongs and by being run in mid-September. At that time of year, no trainer of a 3yo colt with pretentions of “Arc” glory would consider running their horse over the St Leger trip. But if the race was run in late July then it could prove to be a natural stepping-stone for 3yo’s following-on from Royal Ascot and the Irish Derby. There would also be enough time in the calendar to allow a break after the race for a ‘prep’ run prior to the Arc in mid-September. And that race could well be a rescheduled “King George”. This race will never be a match for the “Arc” in terms of prize-money but, with a mid-September race date, it could be the perfect ‘prep’ race for 3yo’s and older horses being aimed at the “Arc” in October, in much the way the Prix Niel currently is in France.
At current odds, I’d suggest a play on NATHANIEL at 9/1 for the “King George”. In recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he’s tipped NATHANIEL for this as well. I think this race has come a bit too soon for Rewilding (following his Royal Ascot win) as he needs a considerable break (probably more than 50 days) between races. St Nicholas Abbey still has to prove he’s up to this class and he’s very much the O’Brien 2nd-string behind So You Think. As such, Workforce may represent a tiny bit of value at odds of 2/1, but his best form is not in small fields. He seems to need to be covered-up and produced late to show his blistering finishing speed. I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and a 3yo Derby winner would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. As NATHANIEL has been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race, it is hard to see him not being in the 1st-3 but, even at quarter-odds, you won’t see much return on your bet if you wager eachway and he doesn’t win.
I’ve been reading lately that turnover on Betdaq has been improving recently, and is now between 15% - 20% of that recorded on Betfair when comparing race turnover prior to the off. Personally, I have throttled-back on my exchange betting turnover on Betfair. About 18 months ago I was staking at least £2,000+ a week on Betfair, and in some weeks it was a lot more than that. It wasn’t all “win” wagers, as a fair chunk was on “back-to-lay” wagers and on laying in the “place-only” market. The place-only market still provides some “gems” of value especially when the fav is very short in the market which is based on hype. But, for me, the “bots” and other automated computer programmes have ruined Betfair. I only ever wager in-running now when I am watching the race on terrestrial tv and even that is soon to disappear. Satellite tv is about 0.80 – 2.00 seconds behind “normal” television transmissions when I watch live broadcasts. As such, most of my turnover (about 60%) is via traditional bookmakers these days and the remainder (about £200 a week) is on Betfair. If Betdaq has improved it’s turnover to nearly 20% of that achieved by Betfair, then I’m going to give it a try. Maybe you should too!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday. As I wrote on yesterday’s blog, racing this week has been uninspiring stuff and, when it’s like that, value winners can be hard to find. It’s easier to lose money at this game than win it, especially if the “monkey” on your shoulder is cajoling you to have a wager.
Thursday looks more interesting and, looking ahead to the weekend, we should be having a wager or two. As per last Wednesday, I’ve been looking thru’ the advance entries in the “Weekender” hoping to repeat last week’s winning wager on JARROW. If there is a wager on Thursday it’s likely to be at one of the evening meetings, so make sure you pay a visit to Betting League (see adjacent link) to check on what I may be advising. It’s free to register, and (at the moment) my selections are free to view for all.
Friday’s racing has better prospects, and the afternoon meeting at Ascot looks attractive. The 2-mile class 2 Brown Jack H’cap is usually a good pointer for the Cesarewitch and trainer Mark Johnston, who has had 2 wins and 2 placed from 7 runners in the race in the past 10 years, has 6 entered at the time of writing. There is also a cracking class 2 h’cap over 10f in which 3yo’s have a great record from a small representation; 3 wins and 3 places from just 10 runners. The evening meeting at York on Friday has some good racing culminating in the European Breeders Fund Stakes (Listed) for fillies over 10½f. It’s likely this will be a competitive renewal and I will be giving this race plenty of attention.
Saturday’s racing is all about the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 event over 12f at Ascot. This race was once the highlight of the summer with the best 3yo’s meeting the best of the older horses (that remained in training) over the “classic” trip of a mile & a half. The lack of the very best 3yo colts going for this race in the past 10-15 years has meant that it has lost some of its lustre. Personally, I believe that the challenge this race represents to a Derby-winning 3yo colt is too much at this stage of the season if that colt is to be then aimed at the “Arc” in October (the richest race in Europe over 12f). Earlier this week I “tweeted” that perhaps a way of rekindling entries from the top 3yo colts would be to swap dates for the race with the St Leger held in mid-September. The more I’ve thought of this, the better it seems (to me). The St Leger is hamstrung by both being over a mile & 6 furlongs and by being run in mid-September. At that time of year, no trainer of a 3yo colt with pretentions of “Arc” glory would consider running their horse over the St Leger trip. But if the race was run in late July then it could prove to be a natural stepping-stone for 3yo’s following-on from Royal Ascot and the Irish Derby. There would also be enough time in the calendar to allow a break after the race for a ‘prep’ run prior to the Arc in mid-September. And that race could well be a rescheduled “King George”. This race will never be a match for the “Arc” in terms of prize-money but, with a mid-September race date, it could be the perfect ‘prep’ race for 3yo’s and older horses being aimed at the “Arc” in October, in much the way the Prix Niel currently is in France.
At current odds, I’d suggest a play on NATHANIEL at 9/1 for the “King George”. In recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he’s tipped NATHANIEL for this as well. I think this race has come a bit too soon for Rewilding (following his Royal Ascot win) as he needs a considerable break (probably more than 50 days) between races. St Nicholas Abbey still has to prove he’s up to this class and he’s very much the O’Brien 2nd-string behind So You Think. As such, Workforce may represent a tiny bit of value at odds of 2/1, but his best form is not in small fields. He seems to need to be covered-up and produced late to show his blistering finishing speed. I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and a 3yo Derby winner would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. As NATHANIEL has been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race, it is hard to see him not being in the 1st-3 but, even at quarter-odds, you won’t see much return on your bet if you wager eachway and he doesn’t win.
I’ve been reading lately that turnover on Betdaq has been improving recently, and is now between 15% - 20% of that recorded on Betfair when comparing race turnover prior to the off. Personally, I have throttled-back on my exchange betting turnover on Betfair. About 18 months ago I was staking at least £2,000+ a week on Betfair, and in some weeks it was a lot more than that. It wasn’t all “win” wagers, as a fair chunk was on “back-to-lay” wagers and on laying in the “place-only” market. The place-only market still provides some “gems” of value especially when the fav is very short in the market which is based on hype. But, for me, the “bots” and other automated computer programmes have ruined Betfair. I only ever wager in-running now when I am watching the race on terrestrial tv and even that is soon to disappear. Satellite tv is about 0.80 – 2.00 seconds behind “normal” television transmissions when I watch live broadcasts. As such, most of my turnover (about 60%) is via traditional bookmakers these days and the remainder (about £200 a week) is on Betfair. If Betdaq has improved it’s turnover to nearly 20% of that achieved by Betfair, then I’m going to give it a try. Maybe you should too!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Wednesday, 20 July 2011
Mid-week racing has little to inspire
This is the 315th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections have been put up on Betting League (or the blog) since our 7/1 (11/2 SP) winner JARROW last Thursday, the reason being is that racing has been dire - and what's worse, it's continuing.
The afternoon meeting at Catterick would be hard to beat in a competition to find the lowest quality race-meeting. But then the evening meeting at Leicester is only a tiny bit better. It comes to the other evening meeting at Sandown to provide the best racing, but there don't appear to be any value wagers there either.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections have been put up on Betting League (or the blog) since our 7/1 (11/2 SP) winner JARROW last Thursday, the reason being is that racing has been dire - and what's worse, it's continuing.
The afternoon meeting at Catterick would be hard to beat in a competition to find the lowest quality race-meeting. But then the evening meeting at Leicester is only a tiny bit better. It comes to the other evening meeting at Sandown to provide the best racing, but there don't appear to be any value wagers there either.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 16 July 2011
Who wants to be the King?
This is the 314th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday.
What can I tell you today? Firstly, it’s raining so watch out for going changes and pay heed. If in doubt, be cautious.
The racing today looks fairly ordinary, so I am not inclined as I write this to have a wager.
Nothing catches my eye at Newbury, which looks a bit of a minefield of a meeting.
At Newmarket, the 3:10 – a class 2 h’cap over a mile – is usually my cup o’ tea, and it looks wide open. There is only a single 3yo in the race BAHCELI but altho’ I respect him, he looks a bit short in the market to me. It may pay to take a chance with one at longer odds in this and WANNABE KING fits the bill. He was joint fav for the Cambridgeshire here in October 2009 off this mark, and altho’ he proved not good enough, a strong run mile on good/good-to-firm going is what he needs and it’s what he’ll get today. That trainer David Lanagan is holding back from declaring him a runner until knowing the true state of the going for me is a big pointer should he go to post.
That’s it for today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday.
What can I tell you today? Firstly, it’s raining so watch out for going changes and pay heed. If in doubt, be cautious.
The racing today looks fairly ordinary, so I am not inclined as I write this to have a wager.
Nothing catches my eye at Newbury, which looks a bit of a minefield of a meeting.
At Newmarket, the 3:10 – a class 2 h’cap over a mile – is usually my cup o’ tea, and it looks wide open. There is only a single 3yo in the race BAHCELI but altho’ I respect him, he looks a bit short in the market to me. It may pay to take a chance with one at longer odds in this and WANNABE KING fits the bill. He was joint fav for the Cambridgeshire here in October 2009 off this mark, and altho’ he proved not good enough, a strong run mile on good/good-to-firm going is what he needs and it’s what he’ll get today. That trainer David Lanagan is holding back from declaring him a runner until knowing the true state of the going for me is a big pointer should he go to post.
That’s it for today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 14 July 2011
JARROW marches to victory
This is the 313th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
What did I tell you yesterday?
“we may have a wager in another likely event on the card (at Hamilton)”; and boy, did we!
I posted-up the following on Betting League at 6:50am this morning – remember, I am now posting my selections on Betting League and advising the results of those selections on this blog AFTER they have run (for reasons why, read on).
“Since coming 2nd at Doncaster in May, JARROW has been in my notebook. Was not helped by the draw LTO, but drawn 3 of 8 today will not be a hindrance. Raced well off OR90 as a 3yo so is well-in on form. Today's trip and going will suit.
Boylesports go 7/1; yet the RP betting forecast has him at 4/1.
Posted at 06:50am 14th July 2011”
You cannot have a clearer indication to have a wager than that. You can read my Notebook entry adjacent, which includes the date I made the entry.
Why am I posting my selections on Betting League and not directly on the blog?
A few reasons really.
- I am trying to discover whether anyone takes any real notice of what is written on this blog of mine and whether readers follow the selections.
- I know that I have a core readership of about 100+ and that I have casual visitors of about another 250+. On top of those numbers, for the major racing festivals, I can pull-in another 300+ visitors to the blog. For instance, over 600 people read my Grand National blog on the day on which I made 3 selections; of which 2 were long-odds each-way selections (both fell), and the other was my ‘win’ selection – which was eventual winner BALLABRIGGS at 16/1. The response? Nothing.
- Actually, that’s not true. One ‘twit’ off Twitter proceeded to berate me suggesting that I had not in fact selected the winner and that virtually anyone could have done what I did. That not a single tipster who writes for the only British racing daily, the Racing Post, selected the winner of the Grand National this year suggests to me that my “effort” in naming the winner was a pretty decent one.
- By posting my selections on another “forum” where they can be independently monitored, then I can at least demonstrate my authenticity and integrity as a tipster.
If you visit Betting League, you will see that in the last couple of weeks since I have been “full-time” utilising Betting League to post my selections, I have advised 6 selections of which 3 have won at SP’s of 5/4 (advised at 4/1); 2/1 (advised at 11/4) and 11/2 (advised at 7/1).
So then, don’t read about my selections AFTER they have won – register with Betting League (it’s free) and follow my selections on there. There is plenty of decent racing on Friday but, as yet, I have not focused on a selection. If I do, then that selection will be posted-up on Betting League.
If, in the long-term, it appears that there is no interest in my blog to make it economically viable then I will almost certainly cease posting. I have an idea of the “next stage” for horseracing tipping on the internet; if other horseracing bloggers are interested, then contact me and I will get in touch.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
What did I tell you yesterday?
“we may have a wager in another likely event on the card (at Hamilton)”; and boy, did we!
I posted-up the following on Betting League at 6:50am this morning – remember, I am now posting my selections on Betting League and advising the results of those selections on this blog AFTER they have run (for reasons why, read on).
“Since coming 2nd at Doncaster in May, JARROW has been in my notebook. Was not helped by the draw LTO, but drawn 3 of 8 today will not be a hindrance. Raced well off OR90 as a 3yo so is well-in on form. Today's trip and going will suit.
Boylesports go 7/1; yet the RP betting forecast has him at 4/1.
Posted at 06:50am 14th July 2011”
You cannot have a clearer indication to have a wager than that. You can read my Notebook entry adjacent, which includes the date I made the entry.
Why am I posting my selections on Betting League and not directly on the blog?
A few reasons really.
- I am trying to discover whether anyone takes any real notice of what is written on this blog of mine and whether readers follow the selections.
- I know that I have a core readership of about 100+ and that I have casual visitors of about another 250+. On top of those numbers, for the major racing festivals, I can pull-in another 300+ visitors to the blog. For instance, over 600 people read my Grand National blog on the day on which I made 3 selections; of which 2 were long-odds each-way selections (both fell), and the other was my ‘win’ selection – which was eventual winner BALLABRIGGS at 16/1. The response? Nothing.
- Actually, that’s not true. One ‘twit’ off Twitter proceeded to berate me suggesting that I had not in fact selected the winner and that virtually anyone could have done what I did. That not a single tipster who writes for the only British racing daily, the Racing Post, selected the winner of the Grand National this year suggests to me that my “effort” in naming the winner was a pretty decent one.
- By posting my selections on another “forum” where they can be independently monitored, then I can at least demonstrate my authenticity and integrity as a tipster.
If you visit Betting League, you will see that in the last couple of weeks since I have been “full-time” utilising Betting League to post my selections, I have advised 6 selections of which 3 have won at SP’s of 5/4 (advised at 4/1); 2/1 (advised at 11/4) and 11/2 (advised at 7/1).
So then, don’t read about my selections AFTER they have won – register with Betting League (it’s free) and follow my selections on there. There is plenty of decent racing on Friday but, as yet, I have not focused on a selection. If I do, then that selection will be posted-up on Betting League.
If, in the long-term, it appears that there is no interest in my blog to make it economically viable then I will almost certainly cease posting. I have an idea of the “next stage” for horseracing tipping on the internet; if other horseracing bloggers are interested, then contact me and I will get in touch.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Wednesday, 13 July 2011
Nothing doing
This is the 312th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for a few days, and no blog either, but then racing this week hasn’t been particularly inspiring. I’m still smarting from Saturday’s mega-racing programme. There were some exceptional performances, notably from GREEN DESTINY who now will attempt a follow-up win at “Glorious” Goodwood in the Totesport Mile despite an 11lb hike in the ratings.
Just looking thru’ the results section in today’s Weekender and a few performances catch my eye.
At Ascot on Saturday, in the Class 2 Totepool H’cap over 6f, 5 of the 1st-7 places were filled with those drawn the highest of the 19 runners. As such, the proximity to the winner of 2nd placed LUTINE BELL (drawn 11) and IMPERIAL GUEST (drawn 13) in 5th should not be underestimated, especially that of LUTINE BELL who did not have a clear run thru’ at a vital part of the race.
At Chester on Saturday, the ‘Listed’ race in which my selection (Awzaan) ran was won by the 3yo MAJESTIC MYLES with a superlative performance as he was travelling like the winner a long way out. It is all the more noteworthy as the runner-up MON CADEAUX also travelled exceptionally well and threatened (at one point) to reel-in the winner. The race was run in a fast time, and the winner looks likely to be up to winning a Group 3.
Now is the time of year when you should pay attention to 3yo colts taking-on their elders as the weight-for-age allowances are much in favour of improving 3yo’s right now.
Billy Wallace who writes as “The Prophet” in the Weekender is in rare form this summer, and tho’ his selections are available mainly via his phone-line service, the column he writes in the Weekender is full of gems of information. If you had read he column in recent weeks then you couldn’t fail to have been on recent winners, including GREEN DESTINY (SP 6/1) and NORMAN ORPEN (SP 14/1) who both won at York on Saturday.
One from last week that you should make a note of is WELL SHARP. His trainer, Michael Dods, has an awful record when travelling south of Leicester on the M1, yet this horse ran well at Royal Ascot and again at Newmarket (in the race won by Fulghar) on Thursday. If and when he turns-out on a Northern track, he looks one to lump-on. Another from the same card is LUJEANIE who looked like the winner (to my eyes at least) till not getting a clear run about a furlong out and then running-out of race. All 4 of his wins have come over 6-furlongs and a return to that trip in this sort of form should see him return to the winner’s enclosure.
Today’s cards were not up to much, and Thursday’s don’t look much better with evening meetings at Bath, Doncaster and Epsom all looking low-key. There are afternoon meetings at Leicester (again, low-key) and Hamilton which hosts the 1st of a 3-day meeting there, the feature of which is the ‘Listed’ Glasgow Stakes over a mile & 3-furlongs. However, we may have a likely wager in another event on the card. Remember, selections are now being posted on Betting League.
Friday’s racing looks better. At Hamilton in the evening, there is the Class 2 Scottish Stewards Cup over 6-furlongs and this looks like being competitive. Last week, I noted the run of HIDDEN GLORY prior to him coming 2nd at 20/1 at Pontefract off OR74. He remains on that mark for a couple of entries, and I hope he goes to Newbury on Friday.
Onto Saturday and, with afternoon meetings at Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon, and evening meetings at Haydock and Lingfield, it is a declaration of how ordinary the “flat” racing is on the 3rd weekend in July when Channel 4 Racing are televising the top-class summer “jumps” meeting – featuring the Summer Plate Handicap Chase – at Market Rasen. Race planners really need a kick up the backside when we go from one extreme to the next during the summer. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; in my opinion 90% of weekend racegoers could not care less what sort of racing they get to see when they go racing. So, by all means fill the weekend with racing but at least spread it around a bit. Why couldn’t one of the “southern” meetings at Newbury or Lingfield take place on Sunday?
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections for a few days, and no blog either, but then racing this week hasn’t been particularly inspiring. I’m still smarting from Saturday’s mega-racing programme. There were some exceptional performances, notably from GREEN DESTINY who now will attempt a follow-up win at “Glorious” Goodwood in the Totesport Mile despite an 11lb hike in the ratings.
Just looking thru’ the results section in today’s Weekender and a few performances catch my eye.
At Ascot on Saturday, in the Class 2 Totepool H’cap over 6f, 5 of the 1st-7 places were filled with those drawn the highest of the 19 runners. As such, the proximity to the winner of 2nd placed LUTINE BELL (drawn 11) and IMPERIAL GUEST (drawn 13) in 5th should not be underestimated, especially that of LUTINE BELL who did not have a clear run thru’ at a vital part of the race.
At Chester on Saturday, the ‘Listed’ race in which my selection (Awzaan) ran was won by the 3yo MAJESTIC MYLES with a superlative performance as he was travelling like the winner a long way out. It is all the more noteworthy as the runner-up MON CADEAUX also travelled exceptionally well and threatened (at one point) to reel-in the winner. The race was run in a fast time, and the winner looks likely to be up to winning a Group 3.
Now is the time of year when you should pay attention to 3yo colts taking-on their elders as the weight-for-age allowances are much in favour of improving 3yo’s right now.
Billy Wallace who writes as “The Prophet” in the Weekender is in rare form this summer, and tho’ his selections are available mainly via his phone-line service, the column he writes in the Weekender is full of gems of information. If you had read he column in recent weeks then you couldn’t fail to have been on recent winners, including GREEN DESTINY (SP 6/1) and NORMAN ORPEN (SP 14/1) who both won at York on Saturday.
One from last week that you should make a note of is WELL SHARP. His trainer, Michael Dods, has an awful record when travelling south of Leicester on the M1, yet this horse ran well at Royal Ascot and again at Newmarket (in the race won by Fulghar) on Thursday. If and when he turns-out on a Northern track, he looks one to lump-on. Another from the same card is LUJEANIE who looked like the winner (to my eyes at least) till not getting a clear run about a furlong out and then running-out of race. All 4 of his wins have come over 6-furlongs and a return to that trip in this sort of form should see him return to the winner’s enclosure.
Today’s cards were not up to much, and Thursday’s don’t look much better with evening meetings at Bath, Doncaster and Epsom all looking low-key. There are afternoon meetings at Leicester (again, low-key) and Hamilton which hosts the 1st of a 3-day meeting there, the feature of which is the ‘Listed’ Glasgow Stakes over a mile & 3-furlongs. However, we may have a likely wager in another event on the card. Remember, selections are now being posted on Betting League.
Friday’s racing looks better. At Hamilton in the evening, there is the Class 2 Scottish Stewards Cup over 6-furlongs and this looks like being competitive. Last week, I noted the run of HIDDEN GLORY prior to him coming 2nd at 20/1 at Pontefract off OR74. He remains on that mark for a couple of entries, and I hope he goes to Newbury on Friday.
Onto Saturday and, with afternoon meetings at Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon, and evening meetings at Haydock and Lingfield, it is a declaration of how ordinary the “flat” racing is on the 3rd weekend in July when Channel 4 Racing are televising the top-class summer “jumps” meeting – featuring the Summer Plate Handicap Chase – at Market Rasen. Race planners really need a kick up the backside when we go from one extreme to the next during the summer. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; in my opinion 90% of weekend racegoers could not care less what sort of racing they get to see when they go racing. So, by all means fill the weekend with racing but at least spread it around a bit. Why couldn’t one of the “southern” meetings at Newbury or Lingfield take place on Sunday?
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Sunday, 10 July 2011
Hayley Turner - Group 1 winning jockey
This is the 311th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
It was a breakthrough day in more ways than one yesterday, especially for the unsung heroes of horseracing – the jockeys.
Hayley Turner was tremendous in steering DREAM AHEAD to Group 1 glory in the July Cup at Newmarket. In my opinion, Hayley Turner is worthy of a place on racing’s “top-table”. She always rides to the best of her ability and, being a woman, she is given no quarter by horseracing’s chauvinists. For her, there is no hiding place.
Then at York, 3lb claimer Adam Beschizza produced GREEN DESTINY with a devastating run down the centre of the track to annihilate the opposition and win the John Smiths Cup by an easy 3½ lengths. I’ve been a fan of Beschizza since this time last season when he was a 7lb claimer (use my search facility to check the comments). I wrote then “He’s won 5 races from 12 rides for trainers Gay Kelleway and Simon Dow, and yesterday from 2 rides at Ffos Las he rode another winner, making it 2 wins from 2 rides for Sylvester Kirk. These three trainers think they have found a decent claimer worth more than his 7lb.” Admittedly, it was just a steering job on GREEN DESTINY who fulfilled the promise of his 3yo debut at Newmarket in April and is surely destined for group racing NTO.
At Ascot, jockey Pat Dobbs rode DICK TURPIN to victory in the Group 2 Summer Mile and for him too, it was the biggest race he’s won to date. Quite how DICK TURPIN went off at 2/1 when he was 6lb better on official ratings than Red Jazz – who is a only OR118 at 7-furlongs and does not stay a mile – and was 9lb better than the 6/4 fav Side Glance, is beyond me. Had I known he’d be these odds then DICK TURPIN would’ve been my 1st 3pt selection as I thought he’d start odds-on at shorter than 4/5.
Unfortunately, my only selection of the day was AWZAAN in the 4:35 at Chester. What I wrote on Betting League was “Needs a strong pace and he'll get it in this race. Was close-up 3rd to Delgator over 7f at Newbury on 17Sept10 and was rated OR114 for that run. A repeat would put him well clear of this opposition today. Is entered for Group 1 Betfred Sprint at Haydock, and has speed to burn with tremendous turn-of-foot. Ladbrokes go 6/1 and in this morning’s Racing Post, he's the 7/2 fav in the betting forecast. Drawn 8, which is tricky, we'll wager 1pt.” He got out the stalls well enough, but did not seem to handle the turns of Chester (which is always a danger with horses running there for the 1st time). He is disappointing as that run of 17Sept2010 was very good indeed, and he will repeat it one day. Let’s just hope that we can predict when!
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) later to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
It was a breakthrough day in more ways than one yesterday, especially for the unsung heroes of horseracing – the jockeys.
Hayley Turner was tremendous in steering DREAM AHEAD to Group 1 glory in the July Cup at Newmarket. In my opinion, Hayley Turner is worthy of a place on racing’s “top-table”. She always rides to the best of her ability and, being a woman, she is given no quarter by horseracing’s chauvinists. For her, there is no hiding place.
Then at York, 3lb claimer Adam Beschizza produced GREEN DESTINY with a devastating run down the centre of the track to annihilate the opposition and win the John Smiths Cup by an easy 3½ lengths. I’ve been a fan of Beschizza since this time last season when he was a 7lb claimer (use my search facility to check the comments). I wrote then “He’s won 5 races from 12 rides for trainers Gay Kelleway and Simon Dow, and yesterday from 2 rides at Ffos Las he rode another winner, making it 2 wins from 2 rides for Sylvester Kirk. These three trainers think they have found a decent claimer worth more than his 7lb.” Admittedly, it was just a steering job on GREEN DESTINY who fulfilled the promise of his 3yo debut at Newmarket in April and is surely destined for group racing NTO.
At Ascot, jockey Pat Dobbs rode DICK TURPIN to victory in the Group 2 Summer Mile and for him too, it was the biggest race he’s won to date. Quite how DICK TURPIN went off at 2/1 when he was 6lb better on official ratings than Red Jazz – who is a only OR118 at 7-furlongs and does not stay a mile – and was 9lb better than the 6/4 fav Side Glance, is beyond me. Had I known he’d be these odds then DICK TURPIN would’ve been my 1st 3pt selection as I thought he’d start odds-on at shorter than 4/5.
Unfortunately, my only selection of the day was AWZAAN in the 4:35 at Chester. What I wrote on Betting League was “Needs a strong pace and he'll get it in this race. Was close-up 3rd to Delgator over 7f at Newbury on 17Sept10 and was rated OR114 for that run. A repeat would put him well clear of this opposition today. Is entered for Group 1 Betfred Sprint at Haydock, and has speed to burn with tremendous turn-of-foot. Ladbrokes go 6/1 and in this morning’s Racing Post, he's the 7/2 fav in the betting forecast. Drawn 8, which is tricky, we'll wager 1pt.” He got out the stalls well enough, but did not seem to handle the turns of Chester (which is always a danger with horses running there for the 1st time). He is disappointing as that run of 17Sept2010 was very good indeed, and he will repeat it one day. Let’s just hope that we can predict when!
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) later to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 9 July 2011
One selection - one winner, given yesterday
This is the 310th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I posted just one selection yesterday on Betting League, CHARLIE COOL, and what an easy winner it was. This is what I wrote on there;
“Has been knocking on the door recently without success, but runs off OR86 which is a drop of 2lb and is clear top-rated on official handicap ratings. This trip should suit as will going - let's hope the pace is not muddling. Extraterrestrial is not an odds-on shot given poor form at York (080007) and that a mile is his limit. For me, 11/4 with Paddy Power is a gift.”
CHARLIE COOL was a 2pt win bet at advised odds of 11/4, and he had an SP of 2/1.
Today is probably the best day of flat racing in the entire season with 3 absolute cracking meetings at Ascot, York and Newmarket, plus a host of other meetings. I will repeat the advice I gave earlier in the week and that is on these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after 12-noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
I posted just one selection yesterday on Betting League, CHARLIE COOL, and what an easy winner it was. This is what I wrote on there;
“Has been knocking on the door recently without success, but runs off OR86 which is a drop of 2lb and is clear top-rated on official handicap ratings. This trip should suit as will going - let's hope the pace is not muddling. Extraterrestrial is not an odds-on shot given poor form at York (080007) and that a mile is his limit. For me, 11/4 with Paddy Power is a gift.”
CHARLIE COOL was a 2pt win bet at advised odds of 11/4, and he had an SP of 2/1.
Today is probably the best day of flat racing in the entire season with 3 absolute cracking meetings at Ascot, York and Newmarket, plus a host of other meetings. I will repeat the advice I gave earlier in the week and that is on these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after 12-noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Friday, 8 July 2011
Trainers "only-runner-of-the-day" pinpoints winners
This is the 309th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for yesterday, and judging by my own personal performance at Newmarket, it was probably a good thing. I had losing wagers on CENSUS (2nd) in the opener, then on ROMAN SOLDIER (2nd) in the 2yo July Stakes, and finally I was on LUJEANIE (3rd) in the last race on the card.
I should have paid more attention to my own advice given on this blog and on twitter, and followed the trainers who were sending solitary runners to far-flung tracks as – right from the opening race at Warwick – they were winning.
To Warwick, Jeremy Noseda sent just 1 horse RED ALPHA and it won at 9/2 and, just for good measure, Mick Channon’s only runner there ROYAL MAJESTIC was 2nd at 4/1 – the Exacta paying £21.60. Ruth Carr had her only runner of the day at Warwick, and ORPSIE BOY won at 3/1 followed home by Andrew Haynes only runner of the day COLLECT ART, the Exacta paying £9.10.
At Folkestone, Sir Henry Cecil’s only runner there CELESTYNA won the opening race at 10/1 (RP B/F was 7/2). Later, John Berry’s only runner of the day KADOUCHSKI won at 5/2 (his only runner today is BATGIRL which is the best horse in his small stable). Then Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner of the day FIRE FIGHTER won at 8/13. Finally, in the last race on the card, Jeremy Gask’s runner SWEET SECRET (named on the blog yesterday) was 2nd beaten just a head at 11/1 by the only runner of the day sent out by Gerard Butler, FULL BLOOM at 9/1. That Exacta was £57.90.
For major meetings like Newmarket’s “July” meeting, following trainers-in-form etc does not work so well as the competition for the races is greater but, even so, David Brown’s only runner of the day FREDERICK ENGELS won at 7/4. But the last race on the card went to James Hartnett’s only runner of the day MURURA at 12/1, followed home by Declan Carroll’s only runner of the day WHOZTHECAT at 12/1 and in 3rd was Dean Ivory’s only runner of the day LUJEANIE at 13/2. What a tricast, £1.027.61.
At Doncaster, the opening race went to Chris Grant’s only runner of the day SENDALI at 5/1. Then Peter Chapple-Hyam’s only runner at Doncaster AL KHAN won 16/1 (RP B/F was 4/1). Next up, Des Donovan’s only runner of the day MY OWN WAY HOME won at 7/1. Then Luca Cumani’s only runner at Doncaster SUBMISSION won at 4/6 (was Fallon’s only ride there, he flew up from Newmarket). James Given only had one runner yesterday, and that won the 8:45, ROYAL TROOPER winning at 9/1, with John Gosden’s only runner at Doncaster SENSE OF PRIDE in 2nd, the Exacta paying £32.60.
Epsom was no different. The opening race went to Gay Kelleways only runner of the day HAWAANA at 4/1. The next on the card went to John Best’s only runner of the day BAYLEYF at 7/4. The 3rd race went to Stuart Kittow’s only runner of the day DANCING STORM at 7/2. Later on, Steve Golling’s only runner of the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR won at “evens”.
On these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections for yesterday, and judging by my own personal performance at Newmarket, it was probably a good thing. I had losing wagers on CENSUS (2nd) in the opener, then on ROMAN SOLDIER (2nd) in the 2yo July Stakes, and finally I was on LUJEANIE (3rd) in the last race on the card.
I should have paid more attention to my own advice given on this blog and on twitter, and followed the trainers who were sending solitary runners to far-flung tracks as – right from the opening race at Warwick – they were winning.
To Warwick, Jeremy Noseda sent just 1 horse RED ALPHA and it won at 9/2 and, just for good measure, Mick Channon’s only runner there ROYAL MAJESTIC was 2nd at 4/1 – the Exacta paying £21.60. Ruth Carr had her only runner of the day at Warwick, and ORPSIE BOY won at 3/1 followed home by Andrew Haynes only runner of the day COLLECT ART, the Exacta paying £9.10.
At Folkestone, Sir Henry Cecil’s only runner there CELESTYNA won the opening race at 10/1 (RP B/F was 7/2). Later, John Berry’s only runner of the day KADOUCHSKI won at 5/2 (his only runner today is BATGIRL which is the best horse in his small stable). Then Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner of the day FIRE FIGHTER won at 8/13. Finally, in the last race on the card, Jeremy Gask’s runner SWEET SECRET (named on the blog yesterday) was 2nd beaten just a head at 11/1 by the only runner of the day sent out by Gerard Butler, FULL BLOOM at 9/1. That Exacta was £57.90.
For major meetings like Newmarket’s “July” meeting, following trainers-in-form etc does not work so well as the competition for the races is greater but, even so, David Brown’s only runner of the day FREDERICK ENGELS won at 7/4. But the last race on the card went to James Hartnett’s only runner of the day MURURA at 12/1, followed home by Declan Carroll’s only runner of the day WHOZTHECAT at 12/1 and in 3rd was Dean Ivory’s only runner of the day LUJEANIE at 13/2. What a tricast, £1.027.61.
At Doncaster, the opening race went to Chris Grant’s only runner of the day SENDALI at 5/1. Then Peter Chapple-Hyam’s only runner at Doncaster AL KHAN won 16/1 (RP B/F was 4/1). Next up, Des Donovan’s only runner of the day MY OWN WAY HOME won at 7/1. Then Luca Cumani’s only runner at Doncaster SUBMISSION won at 4/6 (was Fallon’s only ride there, he flew up from Newmarket). James Given only had one runner yesterday, and that won the 8:45, ROYAL TROOPER winning at 9/1, with John Gosden’s only runner at Doncaster SENSE OF PRIDE in 2nd, the Exacta paying £32.60.
Epsom was no different. The opening race went to Gay Kelleways only runner of the day HAWAANA at 4/1. The next on the card went to John Best’s only runner of the day BAYLEYF at 7/4. The 3rd race went to Stuart Kittow’s only runner of the day DANCING STORM at 7/2. Later on, Steve Golling’s only runner of the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR won at “evens”.
On these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 7 July 2011
Feast or famine?
This is the 308th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for yesterday, which was (in my opinion) one of the worst days racing on the flat (turf) that has been programmed in a long while, and yet today starts a feast of flat racing peaking with 3 cracking meetings on Saturday. It’s either feast or famine with the race planners – will they ever get the balance right?
James Fanshawe sent just 2 horses to Kempton on the AW last night, and both won.
Snow Fairy at 5/1 and Great Acclaim at 16/1.
Snow Fairy was well tipped-up by Kieren Fallon in his column in the Weekender, as he rightly pointed out that the horse’s form on the AW was 141. Well, the horse now has 3 wins from 4 starts on the AW and, with a speed figure of 85 achieved when winning over 10f at Kempton on the AW last October, this filly should be capable of a follow-up win on the AW as she won this off OR77 and she should not be raised more than 5lb.
Great Acclaim is a full-brother to Berbice who is still in training, and Berbice was a very talented 2yo who started racing as a 3yo off OR107. He’s never looked up to that since, but Great Acclaim looks like being a lot better than his bro’. He also stays 7f, so there is some flexibility with him.
Fanshawe has a great strike rate at Kempton on the AW with older horses. He’s 0 from 18 with 2yo’s there, but 14 from 73 with 3yo’s (19%) and 10 from 43 with 4yo’s+ (23%) and should be noted when sending alder horses there.
There is plenty of racing today with meetings this afternoon at Warwick and Folkestone alongside the feature meeting at Newmarket on the July course. This evening has a couple more meetings at Epsom and Doncaster; so plenty to get stuck into. On days like today it is always worth taking note of trainers plans, especially if they are sending out just the one runner on the day to some far flung track; such as Jeremy Gask who sends the interesting Sweet Secret to Folkestone for the fillies handicap at 4:50.
The “July” meeting looks a cracker right from the off (an early start at 1:20) and while I was on Solar Sky at the Royal Ascot meeting I’m not sure a drop in trip is the way to go. North-East trainer Michael Dods has only sent out one winner to a track south of Leicester in the past 5 seasons and tho’ I reckon his only runner at Newmarket - Well Sharp – looks well handicapped for the 2:25, there is clearly something amiss with the long-distance-travellers from the Dods stable that needs sorting.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selection are for today. I may well post up several during the course of the afternoon, so check the site a few times – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections for yesterday, which was (in my opinion) one of the worst days racing on the flat (turf) that has been programmed in a long while, and yet today starts a feast of flat racing peaking with 3 cracking meetings on Saturday. It’s either feast or famine with the race planners – will they ever get the balance right?
James Fanshawe sent just 2 horses to Kempton on the AW last night, and both won.
Snow Fairy at 5/1 and Great Acclaim at 16/1.
Snow Fairy was well tipped-up by Kieren Fallon in his column in the Weekender, as he rightly pointed out that the horse’s form on the AW was 141. Well, the horse now has 3 wins from 4 starts on the AW and, with a speed figure of 85 achieved when winning over 10f at Kempton on the AW last October, this filly should be capable of a follow-up win on the AW as she won this off OR77 and she should not be raised more than 5lb.
Great Acclaim is a full-brother to Berbice who is still in training, and Berbice was a very talented 2yo who started racing as a 3yo off OR107. He’s never looked up to that since, but Great Acclaim looks like being a lot better than his bro’. He also stays 7f, so there is some flexibility with him.
Fanshawe has a great strike rate at Kempton on the AW with older horses. He’s 0 from 18 with 2yo’s there, but 14 from 73 with 3yo’s (19%) and 10 from 43 with 4yo’s+ (23%) and should be noted when sending alder horses there.
There is plenty of racing today with meetings this afternoon at Warwick and Folkestone alongside the feature meeting at Newmarket on the July course. This evening has a couple more meetings at Epsom and Doncaster; so plenty to get stuck into. On days like today it is always worth taking note of trainers plans, especially if they are sending out just the one runner on the day to some far flung track; such as Jeremy Gask who sends the interesting Sweet Secret to Folkestone for the fillies handicap at 4:50.
The “July” meeting looks a cracker right from the off (an early start at 1:20) and while I was on Solar Sky at the Royal Ascot meeting I’m not sure a drop in trip is the way to go. North-East trainer Michael Dods has only sent out one winner to a track south of Leicester in the past 5 seasons and tho’ I reckon his only runner at Newmarket - Well Sharp – looks well handicapped for the 2:25, there is clearly something amiss with the long-distance-travellers from the Dods stable that needs sorting.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selection are for today. I may well post up several during the course of the afternoon, so check the site a few times – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Wednesday, 6 July 2011
Time for a united stance against News International
This is the 307th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Not the best of days yesterday. I put up 2 selections on Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) , which were:-
Pontefract 4:00, OFF CHANCE (finished 3rd), and
Pontefract 4:30, FLOWING CAPE (unplaced).
I was most confident about OFF CHANCE who I thought had an outstanding chance, but she was carried a bit wide off the home turn into the straight and did not quicken as well as I anticipated. The winner Law Of The Range probably won with a bit in hand but, on reflection, with a stronger pace and perhaps a bit of luck I would be confident of OFF CHANCE reversing these placings on similar terms.
As for FLOWING CAPE, a repeat of his Catterick win over 6f last month would have seen him go close here. But he was off the track for 5 weeks prior to his run last Friday and that was a stinker. As such, I was hoping that run would have brought him to peak fitness, and it hadn’t.
Funnily enough, the best of my selections was that named on the blog – Hidden Glory. He had perfect conditions yesterday based on his close 3rd to Beachfire at Sandown on 03Jul10 off OR78. He was held-up and then came with a sustained challenge that took him into 2nd from a position that gave him far too much to do. He was certainly a place-only proposition going into the race and had I known his place-only odds would be 7.00 (that’s 6/1) then I would have advised him as a selection.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after 1:00pm to see if I have any selections for today.
Finally, I know I am not the only person who has found the recent allegations of journalistic "practice" at the News Of The World (operated by News International which is a part of Rupert Murdoch's business empire of News Corporation) totally repulsive. It's about time decent people made a stance against these despicable newspapers who make profit from the tragedy and despair of the innocents.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Not the best of days yesterday. I put up 2 selections on Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) , which were:-
Pontefract 4:00, OFF CHANCE (finished 3rd), and
Pontefract 4:30, FLOWING CAPE (unplaced).
I was most confident about OFF CHANCE who I thought had an outstanding chance, but she was carried a bit wide off the home turn into the straight and did not quicken as well as I anticipated. The winner Law Of The Range probably won with a bit in hand but, on reflection, with a stronger pace and perhaps a bit of luck I would be confident of OFF CHANCE reversing these placings on similar terms.
As for FLOWING CAPE, a repeat of his Catterick win over 6f last month would have seen him go close here. But he was off the track for 5 weeks prior to his run last Friday and that was a stinker. As such, I was hoping that run would have brought him to peak fitness, and it hadn’t.
Funnily enough, the best of my selections was that named on the blog – Hidden Glory. He had perfect conditions yesterday based on his close 3rd to Beachfire at Sandown on 03Jul10 off OR78. He was held-up and then came with a sustained challenge that took him into 2nd from a position that gave him far too much to do. He was certainly a place-only proposition going into the race and had I known his place-only odds would be 7.00 (that’s 6/1) then I would have advised him as a selection.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after 1:00pm to see if I have any selections for today.
Finally, I know I am not the only person who has found the recent allegations of journalistic "practice" at the News Of The World (operated by News International which is a part of Rupert Murdoch's business empire of News Corporation) totally repulsive. It's about time decent people made a stance against these despicable newspapers who make profit from the tragedy and despair of the innocents.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 5 July 2011
Only selection yesterday is a winner!
This is the 306th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Back with a bang from holiday when my only selection yesterday – posted on Betting League – won!
The winner was DRAGONERA in the 7:50 at Ripon and when I posted-up the selection on Betting League at about 3:30pm it was available at odds of 4/1 with several bookmakers. As a result of the market leaders Lady Amakhala and King Of The Celts withdrawing from the race, DRAGONERA started the 5/4 fav and the result was never in any doubt.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. If I have a selection for today, then I will make it known further down in the blog.
There is an intelligent article written by Greg Wood of The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/jul/04/betfair-charge-hike-coin-flip) which is well worth a read. Now, I have had an account with Betfair since December 2001 and have always been a supporter of the betting exchanges. However, I have noticed in recent years (probably from 2009 onwards) that the horse-racing markets are “driven” by forces that do not appear human. This has resulted in race fav’s starting at shorter odds than is reasonable ie. 5/4 (2.30) rather than an expected 7/4 (2.80) with the majority of the contraction occurring in the final few minutes before the race starts. This contraction also affects (in my opinion) the odds of the 2nd and 3rd fav but not to such a degree. Of course, the “upside” for punters who oppose the market leaders is that the 4th fav may be available at 8/1 (9.20) rather than the expected 13/2 (7.60). This is a simplified view for the benefit of illustration.
Generally, I now only use Betfair for “laying” (usually place-laying) and when I spot an opportunity to back-to-lay, but even back-to-lay opportunities are getting scarce now as the “bots” used by professional punters manipulate the in-running market to the point that it is not possible to make anything but the smallest of margins (I used to endeavour to obtain 100% on B2L, but now I have reduced my margin target to 40%). For straight “win-only” wagers, I have been using traditional bookmakers more and more over the past 18 months.
Just the one flat (turf) meeting today at Pontefract and one I lost a few quid on last season run’s today – Hidden Glory – in the 3:00. A look at the formbook suggests todays conditions are perfect for him, as he was a close 3rd to Beachfire at Sandown on 03Jul10 off OR78. Beachfire won again NTO, and is now rated OR107 so that was a good effort from Hidden Glory on GF going over 10f. However, since then his form has been unpredictable and that promise has not been followed up so today he runs off OR74. All his 4 wins have been on the AW, but his 2 best performances on turf have been on GF going over today’s trip.
The class 3 King Richard III handicap at 4:30 over 6f looks a very tight event, and one that I was going to swerve. But now I have looked at the race, I reckon there’s one that could represent a bit of value. Find out what by visiting Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/).
The Listed race at 4:00 for fillies over a mile looks a good event with some progressive types involved. I think I have found a bit of value in this race too. Find out what by visiting Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Back with a bang from holiday when my only selection yesterday – posted on Betting League – won!
The winner was DRAGONERA in the 7:50 at Ripon and when I posted-up the selection on Betting League at about 3:30pm it was available at odds of 4/1 with several bookmakers. As a result of the market leaders Lady Amakhala and King Of The Celts withdrawing from the race, DRAGONERA started the 5/4 fav and the result was never in any doubt.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. If I have a selection for today, then I will make it known further down in the blog.
There is an intelligent article written by Greg Wood of The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/jul/04/betfair-charge-hike-coin-flip) which is well worth a read. Now, I have had an account with Betfair since December 2001 and have always been a supporter of the betting exchanges. However, I have noticed in recent years (probably from 2009 onwards) that the horse-racing markets are “driven” by forces that do not appear human. This has resulted in race fav’s starting at shorter odds than is reasonable ie. 5/4 (2.30) rather than an expected 7/4 (2.80) with the majority of the contraction occurring in the final few minutes before the race starts. This contraction also affects (in my opinion) the odds of the 2nd and 3rd fav but not to such a degree. Of course, the “upside” for punters who oppose the market leaders is that the 4th fav may be available at 8/1 (9.20) rather than the expected 13/2 (7.60). This is a simplified view for the benefit of illustration.
Generally, I now only use Betfair for “laying” (usually place-laying) and when I spot an opportunity to back-to-lay, but even back-to-lay opportunities are getting scarce now as the “bots” used by professional punters manipulate the in-running market to the point that it is not possible to make anything but the smallest of margins (I used to endeavour to obtain 100% on B2L, but now I have reduced my margin target to 40%). For straight “win-only” wagers, I have been using traditional bookmakers more and more over the past 18 months.
Just the one flat (turf) meeting today at Pontefract and one I lost a few quid on last season run’s today – Hidden Glory – in the 3:00. A look at the formbook suggests todays conditions are perfect for him, as he was a close 3rd to Beachfire at Sandown on 03Jul10 off OR78. Beachfire won again NTO, and is now rated OR107 so that was a good effort from Hidden Glory on GF going over 10f. However, since then his form has been unpredictable and that promise has not been followed up so today he runs off OR74. All his 4 wins have been on the AW, but his 2 best performances on turf have been on GF going over today’s trip.
The class 3 King Richard III handicap at 4:30 over 6f looks a very tight event, and one that I was going to swerve. But now I have looked at the race, I reckon there’s one that could represent a bit of value. Find out what by visiting Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/).
The Listed race at 4:00 for fillies over a mile looks a good event with some progressive types involved. I think I have found a bit of value in this race too. Find out what by visiting Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Monday, 4 July 2011
Back from holiday and a new way forward
This is the 305th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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