Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury

The 390th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)

Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.

It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.

On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.

At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.

At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.

Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.

Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.

Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)

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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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The money is going down today!

The 389th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.

There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).

Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.

In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).

Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Who wants to be the King?

This is the 314th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday.
What can I tell you today? Firstly, it’s raining so watch out for going changes and pay heed. If in doubt, be cautious.

The racing today looks fairly ordinary, so I am not inclined as I write this to have a wager.
Nothing catches my eye at Newbury, which looks a bit of a minefield of a meeting.

At Newmarket, the 3:10 – a class 2 h’cap over a mile – is usually my cup o’ tea, and it looks wide open. There is only a single 3yo in the race BAHCELI but altho’ I respect him, he looks a bit short in the market to me. It may pay to take a chance with one at longer odds in this and WANNABE KING fits the bill. He was joint fav for the Cambridgeshire here in October 2009 off this mark, and altho’ he proved not good enough, a strong run mile on good/good-to-firm going is what he needs and it’s what he’ll get today. That trainer David Lanagan is holding back from declaring him a runner until knowing the true state of the going for me is a big pointer should he go to post.

That’s it for today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Be quick to take odds on FOUR NATIONS

This is the 295th edition of the daily blog page.

Pretty damn close there with KARAKA JACK last night, but the rain softened-going did for his chances. Had I known the going would turn good-to-soft then I would not have put the horse up as a selection, but there-you-go. He’s entered for another 6f race at York on Saturday, but the horse is crying-out for another go at 7f – a trip he’s won at twice from 5 starts. He stays in my Notebook, but he’ll only be a wager if he’s attempting longer than 6-furlongs now. I thought FRONTLINE PHANTOM was going to serve-it-up to eventual winner Udabaa in the opener at Haydock, but no – he was outclassed.
If you read my comment on y’days blog, the “long-distance-travellers” did well with wins for Wild Coco (for Henry Cecil at Haydock); Power Punch (for Barry Hills at Beverley); and Collect Art (for Andrew Haynes at Yarmouth). Perhaps I should have stuck with them all along.
The other Notebook runner, KITTY WELLS ran a stinker. Jockey, Kieren Fallon said she did not enjoy the slow early pace and, while I won’t dispute that, my opinion is that the rain-softened ground was a major factor as her family have not shown a propensity to handle “give” in the ground. Even so, this was an appalling effort and she’s on a watching brief for now.

Plenty of racing again, so what are the interesting LDT’s (long distance travellers).
There’s nothing at Yarmouth, and the same applies for Nottingham. No trainer has to travel very far to get to Newbury. This evening, to Haydock Mahmood Al Zarooni sends just Circus Act (for the 8:50); Roger Varian sends Nahrain (7:50); and Stuart Kittow sends May Be Some Time (8:50). Kittow has had 4 wins from just 10 runners at Haydock!

There are a couple from my notebook running today:
FOUR NATIONS in the 4:50 at Newbury;
BUZZ LAW in the 7:50 at Haydock.

Believe it or not, but Sir Michael Stoute is yet to have a winner this month, so he sends 3 to Newbury who are all short in the market, but I reckon they can all be opposed and he’ll go win-less today. In fact, I reckon that today could be a day to oppose the fav’s at Newbury, in all except one race, the 4:50. When I saw FOUR NATIONS win LTO, I remarked that it was a long time since I saw a horse more confidently ridden to win a race from such an improbably position on a track such as Goodwood. I reckon this horse could seriously be OR90+ before the end of this season. The form of that race is working out well, and this step-up to 12f will suit FOUR NATIONS. He was 11/4 with some bookmakers earlier, but is only 5/2 now with those offering best odds guaranteed. I don’t reckon you’ll get longer than 11/4 and, in my opinion; he should be under 2/1 for this race.
Nothing catches my attention at either Yarmouth or Nottingham.
At Haydock, the mile handicap at 7:50 has Buzz Law from my Notebook, but he looks out of his depth in this, and the race should go to NAHRAIN, but at “evens” he is not a wagering proposition for me. It is the 8:50 that looks most interesting from a wagering point of view as the fav is Stuart Kittow’s runner May Be Some Time. He looks well-in on a 6lb penalty but he beat very little LTO and it was no wonder he won it so well. As such, I like the look of the 2nd-fav GOOD BOY JACKSON who won what has turned-out to be a good race LTO staying-on and finding more from the front. He looks capable of staying 10f, and there is little else in this race on the formbook. Odds of 11/2 look attractive, but this may be a "reverse-forecast" opportunity.

Selections
Newbury 4:50, FOUR NATIONS, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad