This is the 329th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No luck today for my selection posted on Betting League, which was HARLESTONE TIMES in the Ebor handicap. I really thought this horse had a much better chance than the morning odds of 25/1 as John Dunlop has a great strike-rate at York and had aimed this horse at the race since he won at Goodwood back in May. Unfortunately, he never got a look in and trailed in 11th. I had a feeling in my bones this morning about John Dunlop as he sent out just 3 horses to the races today; 2 to York and the other one – Berling – went to Chester, where it won at odds of 11/2 (touched 7/1). You can’t back all the “single” runners that every trainer sends out to a track and, in fact, Dunlop hasn’t had a winner at Chester in over 5 seasons, but making a note of trainers with single runners at a track is always a good place to start when looking for winners.
Those who followed my jumps season Horses-to-Follow list last season will know I was enthusiastic about Absolute Shambles early-on, but that enthusiasm waned as he ran poorly struggling to find his form. He did win a chase off OR80 in March but was unable to follow up suggesting he was just unreliable. Well, LTO he was put over hurdles with 1st-time cheek-pieces off OR76 (which was 11lb below the last rating he ran from over hurdles) and he won at 25/1. Today, raised just 6lb for that win to OR82, he was confidently ridden by 5lb claimer Tom Cannon and won again at 8/1. I wrote in my Horses-to-Follow list that ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES looked to be on a very lenient rating of OR92 back in September 2010, as such with his new-found confidence he should be up to winning off that mark over hurdles and, as such, can defy another hike by the handicapper. Remember, he can handle good-to-soft, stays 3-mile-plus and runs from the front – he could turn out to be OR100+. His full-sister Iron Maid won off OR115 as a hurdler, and his half-brother Longshanks was 7th in the National won by Silver Birch and won off OR130 as a chaser; so stick with him.
I have started a duplicate blog using Wordpress (link is adjacent) and the intention is to transfer totally to Wordpress from 1st October by which time I will have learnt how to use the platform to best effect. In the meantime, if fellow bloggers want to include a link to the Wordpress page on your own blog, please do.
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Welcome to the "World of Horseracing". This blog has been providing information, comment, and selections for horseracing in the UK and Ireland since March 2010.
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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 20 August 2011
Absolute Shambles does it again
Posted by Wayward Lad at 21:39
Labels: Betfair, betting, Chester, Dettori, Gimcrack, Royal Ascot, Wayward Lad, Waywardlad, York
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Great blog, great writing and great name!
I've added your link on my blog http://thebetplan.com/blog
under 'Other good blogs/sites'
I return link would be greatly received and appreciated.
Let me know when you swap to word press and I'll change your URL.