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Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 7 August 2011

The search for the elusive "value"

This is the 324th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

My search for that elusive jewel, "value", took me to Haydock yesterday where racegoers had an 8-race card. As I wrote here, in the final race on the card I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looked to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, I didn't as (by the time I wrote my blog page) the 11/2 on offer in the morning had gone and at the 7/2 on offer then I did not consider him a "value" wager. Of course, he went on to win in convincing style at 100/30, thereby showing me up. Horses love making fools of you.

My selection of the day - posted on Betting League - was ZUIDER ZEE. Now, I really do think this horse is well-handicapped but he suffers from being one-paced. He flatters to deceive in his racing, staying-on very well but always finding 1 or 2 too good for him, but giving the impression there is more in the locker. I "tweeted" afterwards that he'd had my last penny (as a flat horse) on him now and that he'd probably do better sent hurdling - and that comment was reflected in the RP race analysis!

I did have another wager in the evening at Ayr when, after a couple of non-runners, MUSIC FESTIVAL looked to have an outstanding chance in the 6:40. He was sent-off at 11/4 (tho' I was on at 3/1+ on Betfair) and never looked like winning as he trailed the eventual winner Benny The Bear all-the-way. Despite not getting within 3-lengths of the winner, and his jockey resorting to the whip 2-furlongs out, he actually traded at 1.17 in-running on Betfair! How the hell that happened is beyond me.

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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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