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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 21 February 2012

Festival build-up rolls on

The 438th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

The build-up to the Cheltenham Festival rolls on today with a couple of solid meetings at Wetherby and Taunton.

Before that tho' we had the news issued yesterday about some horses at Paul Nicholls stable having the "cough". It is not long now – just 21 days – till the Festival starts on Tuesday 13th March, and to have an infectious ailment like the cough in your stable is not good news. All eye's will be on Nicholls' horses to see if the problem is more serious than has been suggested and he has runners out today.

In today's Racing Post, Tom Segal (Pricewise) has given Medermit as his Ryanair selection. Those who have donated to the blog and have received my Festival Bulletin will know my thoughts on the Ryanair. As for Medermit, with a Cheltenham record of 7 runs and no wins and his best performances being on right-handed tracks like Sandown and Ascot, I'd say 9/1 was an awful price for a race with the likes of Rubi Light, Noble Prince, Riverside Theatre, Somersby, and Albertas Run likely to be in opposition – and they will probably all finish in front of him. For that reason, I reckon he'll probably go for the Gold Cup where he could sneak 3rd or 4th. Personally, my opinion of the antepost "book" of Pricewise is it looks pretty dire.

The donations continue to come in for my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin and I'm due to send out my 3rd antepost update in the next day or two. If you want the Bulletin and the updates, plus it's my intention to send out my blog the evening before racing to those who have donated during the Festival, then you know what to do. It's 16-pages and 9500 words, no waffle, no adverts, no hype – minimum donation £5.

Can I just say that if you haven't already got it on your phone, get the latest Oddschecker App, it is great and I'm giving it 9.50 out of 10. How they will ever improve on it I've no idea.

At Taunton we have a couple of interesting races and in the 2:30 – class 5 h'cap hurdle over 3-mile & 110 yards – there has been a major market move for Velator. He is 11/2, 3rd fav now but I can't for the life of me see why as he was 14/1 in the RP betting forecast. Personally, I reckon HOBBS DREAM will be hard to beat and odds of 7/2 look fair, but it may be worth taking a chance with GENTLEMAN JIMMY who wasn't beaten much by Hobbs Dream LTO and gets a 10lb tug today. He is 10/1 with a couple of books (Chandler, Bet365) and he's eachway value.

Later, the 3:40 – a class 2 h'cap hurdle over 2m1f – looks a cracker with some decent types in it. Sire De Grugy is the 5/2 fav given his good 4th in the Betfair Hurdle last Friday, so we know he's fit and in form but will he stay this extra half-furlong? The Paul Nicholls horse Edgardo Sol looks to be in the handicapper's grip on OR138 (he's looked held on OR134 for his latest couple of runs), so I'm looking at DEVIL TO PAY who is lightly raced and has bags of potential improvement. He'll appreciate the trip and going and the likely decent pace, at 5/1 (available generally) he looks to be the value.

At Wetherby there is a good novice handicap chase at 2:10 which will be well worth making a note of. These are the sort of races that throw-up potential decent Festival performers.  Ditto the handicap chase at 3:15. In this race WOLF MOON has a fair chance as what I like about him is that he's always thereabouts in his races and appears genuine. This race is not as strong as it perhaps looks on paper and Martin Keighley may have found an opening for his chaser who I usually runs well at this time of year.

I made a personal new year resolution to stop betting using Betfair, and to use it for trading only. I'm happy to say that, including yesterday, I've had 28 trades since 1st January and won with 15 trades, I've have lost with 7 trades, and "traded-out" to break even on the remaining 6 trades. Of my last 8 trades I have only lost once and traded-out once, with 6 wins. My last 4 trades have all won (ie, achieved my target profit) and I'm showing a 168% increase in my "bank" and a 39.40% ROI.

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  1. I'd say your being a bit harsh on Medermit there Ian.

    Course form isn't bad at all.

    His run in the December Handicap of 157 was top class. Likewise only beaten narrowly in the Dipper and Supreme Novices. Has a better record at Cheltenham than Somersby and Riverside Theatre for two.


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