Ayr goes ahead

The 431st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

With No jump racing on Saturday, I did not write a blog but spent the weekend (when not walking the dogs in the snow – they loved it) researching and writing up the Festival Bulletin. If you are not yet aware, my Festival Bulletin is only being sent out to those who have previously donated funds to the blog. If you want to join this select group of people (who are currently sitting on a 16/1 antepost voucher about a horse that went out and won its next race and now sits as the 7/1 joint fav for his Festival target), then donate at least £5 on the button above. I'm hoping that the Festival Bulletin will be ready to go out on Wednesday 15th February. So, if you want the Festival Bulletin, if you want the antepost advice's, and if you want to read the blog the day before racing during the Cheltenham Festival, you know what to do

During the course of yesterday, I formed a firm opinion about a 2nd race at the Festival and sent out my 2nd antepost email on Sunday evening. Unlike last year when my antepost book was quite large and widespread (but still ended in profit thanks to the 16/1 RSA winner Boston's Angel), this year I am focusing on particular opportunities and it is quite possible that (if circumstances are right) I may recommend an additional wager on a selection previously nominated.

The big news from the weekend was the emphatic win by SIZING EUROPE, who left Big Zeb floundering in his wake. It looks extremely likely that SIZING EUROPE will retain his Champion Chase crown come the Festival and, such is his domination of that race, we could see the defection of intended Champion chase runners to potentially "easier" Festival targets. As such, the field for the Champion Chase could well be small, possibly just 7 or 8 runners.

Onto today, and Ayr have managed to get a meeting together. The novice hurdle at 2:00 over 2m4f looks an interesting encounter as I noted SYDNEY PAGET as a potential top-class novice, and he should be too good for this small field. Later, at 3:40, there is an good  class 3 chase over 3m1f.  Top-weight Neptune Equester is on a recovery mission following a very poor run LTO. He was a selection of mine that day and altho' this is a drop in class  he does not have it easy today despite only have 6 rivals. The soft going will favour the dour-stayer Lockstown, and Mister Marker has been running consistently well without winning this season. Posh Bird comes here on the back of a win LTO, but that win was her first in 28 races. As such, NEPTUNE EQUESTER looks the one to be on as he was worth a punt LTO (in my opinion) and in this easier race he should be shorter than 11/4 (Stan James) especially as the 7/2, 2nd fav is Posh Bird. With Mister Marker (9/2) looking one-paced and unlikely to head the fav if it comes to a dash to the line from the final fence, the biggest danger will likely be Lockstown at 8/1 who, despite a big rise in the ratings for his back-to-back wins in the autumn, will love the going and trip (tho' he would prefer another couple of furlongs). The risk is NEPTUNE EQUESTER comes out in a similar mood to that in which he ran LTO, so the hope is that the cheek-pieces will perk him up. As such, I'd prefer 3/1 but rather than take the 11/4 that's on offer I may have him in a reverse forecast with Lockstown.

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