The 433rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Another day with no jump racing today. With the weather forecast looking bleak, and temperatures expected to drop below minus-10 degrees Celcius over much of the UK between now and Sunday, it is in all likelihood that we won't have any racing (other than on the all-weather tracks) before Monday. As I write, both Huntingdon and Taunton meetings for Thursday have been called-off and abandoned.
Basically, if you are a punter who (like me) is not a fan of the all-weather then I suggest you leave it well alone and wait for the weather to change. Yesterday, I was tempted to have a wager on the 3:45 at Southwell as I thought Caldercruix held an excellent chance in what looked an open race over 6-furlongs. I was lucky in that I took 8.20 on the exchanges early in the afternoon, and then laid-off my stake at 5.40 just before the off for a no-risk wager. Caldercruix missed the break (he was expected to run prominently thru'out) and was forced to run wide around the turn into the straight. Altho' he stayed on well he was never going to win after fluffing the start, but he did manage to snatch 3rd close home. For me it was a lucky escape from a losing wager and a lesson learned.
I wrote yesterday about Bog Warrior and I've learned this morning that he is also entered for a 2-mile chase at Leopardstown on the Saturday (as well as the Dr PJ Moriarty chase on Sunday over 2m4f). His trainer seems more inclined to go for the Saturday race, I'm not sure as to his reasons why. If jump racing does go ahead in Ireland this weekend, those horse that compete will be holding a fitness edge over those here in England that are unable to race having been aimed at the weekend programme. I have today's copy of the Weekender with the weekend's entries, and I shall be noting those horses whose plans include a Festival target – they need a prep run, and soon.
I have titled this page "patience is a virtue" and the reason is do not be hustled by the devil on your shoulder to get involved in Cheltenham Festival antepost markets unless you are sure of plans involving your selection. I have advised wagers on a couple of Festival races (and one advice has more than halved in odds already following a good win in his prep race) but I'm holding fire on any more just yet, pending this weekend's racing in Ireland. The Cheltenham Festival Bulletin is well under-way (about 60% complete) with a target date for despatch (by email) to those who have made a contribution to the blog of at least £5 during the past 12 months. So, if you want to be included in the mailing list, you know what to do.
No selections today.
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All comments are welcome.
Hi Ian,
ReplyDeleteA good point about discipline. I wonder how many punters have been tempted to bet on the all-weather with the NH almost grinding to a halt with the frosty conditions? As I'm a specialist in 2yo racing the break between New Year and the start of the Flat turf season drags like a tortoise with a gammie leg. However, discipline needs to be the foundation to any winning approach. It is often the case that you can only appreciate a good bet by watching a number of poor ones pass by.
Great reading, as always.
I would recommend Wayward Lad blog to all readers and very much looking forward to the Cheltenham Festival Bulletin. I made a small donation and in doing so take advantage of Ian's insight. I have been impressed with what I have read and his time, effort and understanding of the NH is clear to see.
As an ardent 2yo racing fan I can let most of the NH season pass by but even I have come to enjoy Cheltenham as a pinnacle of thoroughbred racing. The difference, however, is that I couldn't possibly appreciate such a wealth of information because I simply do not have the understanding to do myself justice and reason why I make use of the specialism within our blogging community. It is important to realise our strength and weakness as punters.
Kind regards,
Jason
Thanks for the comments Jason.
ReplyDeleteHopefully, my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin and the accompanying antepost advice's will provide you (and all those who receive them) with a decent profit.