TFI Friday

The 441st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

It's been a tiring week for me this week. I couldn't get anything done while I was in Cornwall last weekend, and so I've been fighting a rear-guard action all week trying to stay afloat. As such, I'm really glad that it's Friday and I can catch a couple of extra hours in bed tomorrow morning.

The weekend racing looks fairly ordinary and, looking at the entries, it may be a struggle to find a Saturday wager. However, today's jump racing at Sandown and Warwick looks to have a couple of wagering opportunities. I am drawn to the 4:40 at Sandown which is a 3-mile & 110 yard chase h'cap (Class 3).

LTO, Moleskin won in convincingly fashion, making-all and was in-command from before the final fence. I cannot see Moleskin being able to dominate this race in a similar fashion with another recent all-the-way winner - Inga Bird – in opposition, plus other prominent runners like Noakarad De Verzee, Don't Tell Sailor and Star Beat. Also, Moleskin has been dealt a severe blow by being raised 11lb by the handicapper for that win, whereas Don't Tell Sailor is up 7lb for his LTO win, and Inga Bird is up just 3lb for his LTO win. Of those 3, the one I prefer is Don't Tell Sailor who, being a 6yo, has youth on his side and at this stage in his career over fences can only get better. Going back to that race won by Moleskin, in 4th that day was REBLIS and he was the horse I'd wagered on in the race. He looked like making a race of it 3-out but he wasn't able to maintain his challenge. However, in my opinion, the "good" ground that day was too quick for him (he has won on "firm" going, but it was a weak class 5 with just 5-runners) and he's a better gorse with a bit of "give" as he has today. He has also been dropped a 1lb by the handicapper and so meets Moleskin on 12lb better terms. I really cannot see anything else getting involved in this race and with REBLIS having won over 3m2f on soft going at Plumpton in December, we know he'll have the stamina for this. Sandown will put the jumping of Inga Bird to test and, as he's apt to make mistakes, he may struggle when put under pressure. Moleskin has also raced at Sandown twice before and not gone well, and he's another who's jumping is not foot perfect. For me, REBLIS at 10/1 is a value eachway wager and the only other one that I can see having a chance of beating him is Don't Tell Sailor. I will probably also have the pair in a reverse-forecast and a "swinger".

Selection
Sandown 4:40, REBLIS, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (William Hill, Vic Chandler, Ladbrokes – all go BOG)

In today's Racing Post, the entries for the Festival handicap races are published. Those in possession of my Festival Bulletin can now start whittling down the entries to a shortlist for serious form-study. There are a couple of handicaps that I target at the Festival, and those will now be under scrutiny.

Yesterday, I placed another successful trade on Betfair (it was a back-to-lay on King Jack in the 2:30 at Huntingdon). The record since 1st January is now: 31 trades / 18 "wins" / 7 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +50.40%.

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Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.