Look-back at the Lockinge

No blog posted yesterday as I provided a "guest" write-up on the Lockinge for Racing Examiner and Bet Catalyst.

Here is what I wrote:

The race fav is Declaration Of War sent over from Ireland by AP O’Brien. This race is a huge step-up in class, and what we’ve seen of him in his six starts to date is that he’s not much better than a Group 3 horse. More to the point, last season he looked like a 10-12 furlong horse and not a Group 1 miler. As such, I think the winner of this will come elsewhere. The best of the older horses are Cityscape (bestpriced at 9-2) and Farhh (5-1 with Ladbrokes). Of this pair, I’m more inclined to side with Farhh as he’s only had eight starts to date and could find further improvement, but the downside is that trainer Saeed bin Suroor has yet to get his stable firing. Cityscape should run a fair race as he usually to comes to hand quickly and can win when fresh, so the fact he’s not had a run in 210 days isn’t a black mark. The mare Beauty Parlour has to come back from a disappointing effort at Newmarket last autumn on her debut for Sir Henry Cecil. I’m sure she has plenty of talent and her 3lb allowance will see her in the mix if she can repeat her best form in France. Of the others, expect decent runs from Penitent (40-1) and Aljamaaheer (20-1). The latter looked like 7f LTO was too short for him, and this mile and the fact he’s race-fit will be to his advantage. Penitent should not be 40-1; a repeat of his Group 2 winning effort at Newmkarket last September should see him vying for 3^rd place in this race.

The selection is CITYSCAPE @ 9/2 for 1pt win. If Declaration Of War was not running, then CITYSCAPE would be 9/4 or shorter for this and, given that Declaration Of War is a false favourite in my book, CITYSCAPE looks decent value at 9/2.

As you can see, I didn't select the winner FARHH even tho' I narrowed-it down to him and Cityscape.  At the time of writing the blog on Saturday morning, I wasn't sure of the form of the horses coming from the stable of Saeed bin Suroor but, after his horse Willing Foe won earlier on the card, it was clear his stable runners were not lacking fitness. Later in the afternoon, Suroor had a 3rd winner on the day (from just 6 runners). Apparently, Cityscape did not handle the ground but, as his odds drifted longer thru'out the afternoon to an SP of 6/1, it was obvious that there was no stable support for him. 

I thought FARHH ran right up to his form of last season, and he looks above average as a miler. I was also pleased that my opinion of Aljamaaheer was vindicated, and he looks a solid 115 performer which suggests he can succeed at Group 2. The one thing I was right about in the race was swerving the 5/4 race-fav Declaration Of War who found nothing when under pressure at this level and looks to be where I thought he was - no better than Group 3 at best.

Of the other "Listed" and group races run on Saturday, I was very taken by the winning effort of DUNDONNELL at Newmarket. He needed to be ridden from a long way out, but he stuck to his guns and showed great resilience. He looks OR120+ and could well stay a mile.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The Yorkshire Cup

No blog posted before racing yesterday, it was written but due to internet problems I couldn’t post it online, but I did declare my selection for the day in DALKALA in the morning when at odds of 11/4. The mare went on to win in good style at an SP of 2/1.

Today at York, there is only one race that I want to consider:-

York 2:45

The Yorkshire Cup (Group 2) over 1-mile & six furlongs

There are only 8 runners for this race as Cavalryman is a non-runner.

The favourite is the French raider Top Trip, but I’m not convinced by this horse. He seems to me to be a very one-paced horse and, tho’ he’s consistent and a high-class performer, he lacks the gears at the business end of the race to win it. I’m also not convinced that the LTO performance of the 2^nd-fav Quiz Mistress puts her in the frame for this race. As such, we could be looking at a decent wager opportunity if I am right to discount the market leaders. Guarantee, the winner of the Melrose h’cap over C&D last season, would be my idea of the winner of this race if he hadn’t run such a stinker LTO when finishing well behind Quiz Mistress.  Trainer Ed Dunlop won this race last year, and this year he runs Joshua Tree who will love the trip and should handle the soft ground well. He does not have the benefit of a run tho’ and he took a few runs to come to hand last season. That leads me to SIR GRAHAM WADE who did not seem to stay the 2-mile at Ascot LTO and will really appreciate dropping back to today’s 1m6f. He never stopped improving last season winning 6 times in all and he should run up to his mark of OR107 today, if not better than that. If he does, he’ll be hard to beat. Of the others, I don’t think “Ebor” 2^nd Royal Diamond will be far away, but having to concede 4lb to SIR GRAHAM WADE should prove beyond him. Both Glen’s diamond and A Boy Named Suzi look outclassed.

SIR GRAHAM WADE is currently 11/2 across the board and he seems to be a rock-solid eachway wager should I prove to be wrong about the market leaders, as I cannot see him being outside the 1^st-3 home. Bet365 go quarter-odds a place 1,2,3; whereas other companies are fifth-odds.

Selection: SIR GRAHAM WADE, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 (Bet365, ¼-odds a place 1,2,3, Best Odds Guaranteed)

I’m exploring posting my selections via an alternative website / email service for the flat season – tho’ I will be keeping the blog going. It will be a subscription service, but the costs will be low and there will be other tipsters contributing plus a ratings service included. Hopefully, I’ll be able to provide more information on Saturday.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Late posting on Dante Day

I'm a bit disappointed with events today, as I studied the form for the feature races at York this morning, wrote my blog, but then - due to internet issues - I wasn't able to post it online. The office I'm working in is undergoing teething problems with IT, and the internet access is up & down more times during the day than I can count. 
Unfortunately, for followers of the blog, my selection for the Middleton Stakes went unannounced (except on Twitter) yet went on to win in commanding style. Having studied the form for the race, I was firmly of the opinion that eventual winner DALKALA was more than fair value at the morning odds of 11/4, and bookmaker Stan James were 11/4 for a period before noon. So, I should have been reporting a 2.75pt profit on the selection, to add to the 1pt profit made yesterday on GORDON LORD BYRON for coming 3rd at advised odds of 12/1 (wager advised was ½pt eachway @ 12/1 at quarter-odds).
Don't forget to keep an eye on the blog Sprinterstogo (see link on my Blog-list). 
After providing a 10/1 winner yesterday in Society Rock, which followed an 8/1 winner last week, blogger "The Laird" selected GOLDREAM @ 16/1 this morning as his eachway selection for the 5-furlong opening race at York and the horse came a close 2nd. 
And Sprinterstogo has just come up trumps again with SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL winning @ 5/2.

Musidora Stakes at York

York 2:45

The Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) for 3yo fillies over 1m2f & 88 yards

Just a small field of 6-runners for this race, which is not unusual.

You have to go back to 2003 for a winner at odds longer than 5/1, so don't expect a surprise winner. The obvious place to start is the race-fav, LIBER NAUTICUS. Bred to stay the Oaks trip, this 1m2f & 88yds should be well within her scope. She certainly looked a lot better than her current rating of OR86 when winning her maiden at Goodwood last September. Sir Michael Stoute has started this month on a roll, so there are ticks in all the boxes.

The 2^nd-fav Woodland Aria, is the sort of filly that Gosden seems to do well with as a 3yo. He's won this race for the past couple of seasons, so his entry cannot be underestimated. However, I feel the ground (good-to-firm) will be against her as her family seem to have performed best when there is some "give". It is probably the same for Indigo Lady, as this half-sister to 3-mile chaser Deep Purple ran a cracker when last seen in September, finishing 3^rd in a Group 3 in France on soft ground. She beat some useful fillies on merit that day, and it is the best form on paper. The filly that may surprise is Romantic Settings but, even so, I cannot see her finishing in the 1^st-2 unless there is an upset. Her likely finishing position will be a close 3^rd and, as such, she will ruin her handicap rating.

No surprise then that LIBER NAUTICUS is my idea of the likely winner, with Indigo Lady likely making the forecast. However, I'll not be having a wager on this race as the odds about LIBER NAUTICUS, currently 4/5, offer no value at all.

 

York 3:15

The Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) over 6-furlongs

This looks a very tough race to fathom and, with 6 winners at odds of 14/1 or longer in the past 10 years, it could be worth looking opposing the favourite Mince, even tho' her form looks top-class for this. When it comes to preparing and placing sprinters, trainer Roger Charlton knows what he's doing and so current odds of 4/1 about the fav look more than fair.

Sir Henry Cecil's entry Tickled Pink ran an absolute cracker of a race to win LTO and a repeat of that form from the 4yo filly will certainly see her in the mix. Having the benefit of a run this season will also be in her favour. The worry is that she may want a step-up to 7-furlongs (or even a mile) given her breeding, and if she repeats her tactics of trying to make-all again today then she's likely to set the race up for a couple of seasoned campaigners in Society Rock and GORDON LORD BYRON. On his day, Society Rock is a top-class performer as his win at Haydock last September showed. However, catching him right is tricky and he's only won twice from 12 starts in the past 2 seasons, tho' both of those wins were in Group 1 races. Just behind him in 2^nd at Haydock last September was GORDON LORD BYRON and he may have been brought to challenge just a tad too early that day. That was on firm ground, so altho' he's not won on ground as quick as today's good-to-firm, he appears to handle it well enough. He was campaigned on the all-weather over the winter, so comes into this race-fit; and I think he's likely to have improved a few pounds as well. Current odds of 12/1 are far too long for a horse with his ability and, with some bookmakers going quarter-odds to 4-places, he seems to me to be the value play in this race.

Selection: GORDON LORD BYRON, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365 ¼-odds 1,2,3,4 best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Only Fools Rush In

The run-up to the Derby at Epsom on the 1^st Saturday in June is probably the most interesting for me of the entire flat season. Following the Guineas meeting at Newmarket on the 1^st weekend in May, we have 4-weeks of reputation building horse-racing at the Roman-walled cities of Chester and York. This week, it is the turn of York with 3 tremendous days of racing centred around the Dante Derby "trial" starting on Wednesday.

Firstly tho', a look-back at Saturday's selection GREGORIAN which was just beaten a "head" at the decent odds of 3/1. Having watched the race several times, it seemed that the selection may have needed the race; or at least another half-furlong. The winner, Eton Forever, ran right up to his best in my opinion, and only just held on. His performance gives form of the race some substance. I'd be hoping to recoup the loss on GREGORIAN next-time-out, especially if stepped-up to a mile. I will also be following ETON FOREVER, tho' I doubt he'll be going to Royal Ascot this summer as he's probably far too high in the ratings for the Royal Hunt Cup (handicap) but he possibly isn't quite good enough to be competitive in something like the Group 1, Queen Anne Stakes.

I will be waiting until Thursday and the Group 2 Middleton Stakes for fillies over a mile & 2-furlongs before I have my 1^st wager of the week. The Group races on Wednesday – the Musidora (Gp3) and the Duke Of York (Gp2) – will certainly fall under my inspection but, as things stand, it's unlikely that I will wager in either of them. There is plenty of time to place wagers and if you want to make long-term profits from horseracing, it is best to bide your time (only fools rush in). Thursday's card at York looks very good as following the Middleton Stakes, we have the Dante and then the Hambleton Stakes over a mile which is a "Listed" handicap.

The Weekender published tomorrow (Wednesday) will have the form for these races and so I'll have plenty of time to decide on a wager.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Good start to the "flat" campaign

The first Saturday blog of the flat season, and so far my strategy of only aiming at the top-class races (that is Listed and Group races) seems to be paying off.

On Thursday, I recommended via twitter (my moniker is @wayward_lad) a strong wager on DANADANA. As soon as I read the form for the race on Wednesday in this week’s edition of the Weekender, I realised that the horse had an outstanding chance. As soon as the odds were published for the race on Wednesday evening, I tweeted that the horse was outstanding value at 9/2. Throughout Thursday before the race, I repeatedly tweeted that the horse was a snip at 9/2 which was freely available, and I placed a 2pt wager on the horse. Sure enough, after a particularly canny ride by Kieren Fallon, the horse won in commanding style at an SP of 100/30.  

As a result of that performance, yesterday I had a personal wager on MOUNT ATHOS at odds of 6/4. This week, Cumani only sent these 2 horses to Chester and MOUNT ATHOS won this very easily. On the form-book, it was only really a potential 2-horse race between my selection and the AP O’Brien entry (and last year’s winner of this race) Memphis Tennessee. However, I felt that the form of my selection was definitely stronger than that of the Irish entry and, at 6/4, was great value as I thought he should have been odds-on, possibly 4/5.

My other wagers in similar races this season has fared just as well.  Two weeks ago, on the final day of the jumps season, I advised a couple of wagers in suitable races finding the 3/1 winner  AL KAZEEM, and came close to making is a double on the day with my only other Flat racing selection ALJAMAAHEER who was caught on the line and went down by a "head". My only other personal wager this flat season was on TRUMPET MAJOR in the Group 2 Bet365 Mile on 26^th April who won at at SP of 3/1. So that’s 4 winners from 5 wagers so far this flat season.

Normally today, I’d have been deep in form-study for the Victoria Cup at Ascot, which is one of my favourite races of the flat season. Today tho’, I am swerving the race. Earlier on the card at 2:40 is the “Listed” Buckhounds Stakes over 12f, and in it we see the return of last year’s Derby runner-up MAIN SEQUENCE. Clearly top-class, we know he’ll enjoy the good-to-firm ground and stay the 12f trip, which is not the case with either Thomas Chippendale (wont enjoy the going) or Ektihaam (doubt whether will stay this trip). Current odds of 5/4 look fair in the circumstances, as the only factor against him is that Thomas Chippendale is the only runner today from Sir Henry Cecil.

I’m more interested in the Listed race at Haydock over 7-furlongs, the Spring Trophy at 4:05. Over this trip and on good-to-firm going, the obvious selection is the fav GREGORIAN. Current odds of 5/2 look very fair given he’s the top-rated on Official Ratings in the race and should handle the ground. He also won 1^st-time-out last season, and John  Gosden will surely have him well prepared for this.

Selection:

Haydock 4:05, GREGORIAN, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes who both go BOG

Finally, a recommendation to take a look at another blog, http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.co.uk which gave the 8/1 winner YEEOOW yesterday. Blogger "The Laird" who makes the selections concentrates only on sprinters during the flat season and can hit some rare streaks of form.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad