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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 19 May 2013

Look-back at the Lockinge

No blog posted yesterday as I provided a "guest" write-up on the Lockinge for Racing Examiner and Bet Catalyst.

Here is what I wrote:

The race fav is Declaration Of War sent over from Ireland by AP O’Brien. This race is a huge step-up in class, and what we’ve seen of him in his six starts to date is that he’s not much better than a Group 3 horse. More to the point, last season he looked like a 10-12 furlong horse and not a Group 1 miler. As such, I think the winner of this will come elsewhere. The best of the older horses are Cityscape (bestpriced at 9-2) and Farhh (5-1 with Ladbrokes). Of this pair, I’m more inclined to side with Farhh as he’s only had eight starts to date and could find further improvement, but the downside is that trainer Saeed bin Suroor has yet to get his stable firing. Cityscape should run a fair race as he usually to comes to hand quickly and can win when fresh, so the fact he’s not had a run in 210 days isn’t a black mark. The mare Beauty Parlour has to come back from a disappointing effort at Newmarket last autumn on her debut for Sir Henry Cecil. I’m sure she has plenty of talent and her 3lb allowance will see her in the mix if she can repeat her best form in France. Of the others, expect decent runs from Penitent (40-1) and Aljamaaheer (20-1). The latter looked like 7f LTO was too short for him, and this mile and the fact he’s race-fit will be to his advantage. Penitent should not be 40-1; a repeat of his Group 2 winning effort at Newmkarket last September should see him vying for 3rd place in this race.
The selection is CITYSCAPE @ 9/2 for 1pt win. If Declaration Of War was not running, then CITYSCAPE would be 9/4 or shorter for this and, given that Declaration Of War is a false favourite in my book, CITYSCAPE looks decent value at 9/2.

As you can see, I didn't select the winner FARHH even tho' I narrowed-it down to him and Cityscape.  At the time of writing the blog on Saturday morning, I wasn't sure of the form of the horses coming from the stable of Saeed bin Suroor but, after his horse Willing Foe won earlier on the card, it was clear his stable runners were not lacking fitness. Later in the afternoon, Suroor had a 3rd winner on the day (from just 6 runners). Apparently, Cityscape did not handle the ground but, as his odds drifted longer thru'out the afternoon to an SP of 6/1, it was obvious that there was no stable support for him. 

I thought FARHH ran right up to his form of last season, and he looks above average as a miler. I was also pleased that my opinion of Aljamaaheer was vindicated, and he looks a solid 115 performer which suggests he can succeed at Group 2. The one thing I was right about in the race was swerving the 5/4 race-fav Declaration Of War who found nothing when under pressure at this level and looks to be where I thought he was - no better than Group 3 at best.

Of the other "Listed" and group races run on Saturday, I was very taken by the winning effort of DUNDONNELL at Newmarket. He needed to be ridden from a long way out, but he stuck to his guns and showed great resilience. He looks OR120+ and could well stay a mile.

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