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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 28 November 2014
Day 2 of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury
Trainer Alan King sent just 3 horses out - and they all won! And they were all ridden by different jockeys . That has to be good news for my Hennessy Gold Cup wager (see earlier blogs).
Other news yesterday was centred around Nicky Henderson and his heroes from the 2013 Cheltenham Festival: Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre.
Both have met further mishaps on the gallops and neither will be seen on the track before 1st January 2015. This means that Balder Succes is now the fav for the Tingle Creek Chase on 6th December at Sandown.
As I wrote on this blog on 16th September:-
"there seems to be a distinct lack of quality 2-mile chasers about. I expect trainer Alan King will have planned a campaign similar to that of his 2007 QMCC winner Voy Por Ustedes and we'll likely see a reappearance of BALDER SUCCES at Sandown in December for the Tingle Creek. A win in that race, and it is not unlikely, and BALDER SUCCES would be the new QMCC favorite. I'm on (for the QMCC) at £6 eachway and £13 win, that's a total of £25 staked at 14/1. A "place" returns £27, and a win returns £312".
Onto today, and at 12:55 we have a very open-looking handicap Class 3 chase over 2m2f & 110 yards. The race-fav is Comeonginger who has won his last 3 chase races since being dropped in trip from 3-mile to 2m4f. His last win was fairly facile and he's up another 5lb to OR120 and he's starting to look a bit vulnerable now as his hurdle rating is OR115. I quite like the look of Wilton Milan in this race as he's never looked like a 3-mile horse as a chaser, and this drop in trip could be the making of him as his last win was over hurdles over 2m4f at Southwell beating a useful field easily off a ratng of OR133. He's on OR123 today and this horse - who cost £85,000 - could be the answer.
From my alert list, in the 3-mile handicap hurdle at 1:30, TULLYESKER HILL looks well treated if he's able to hold his form since winning LTO. Unfortunately, he's up against a top-class stablement in Unique De Cotte who looks even better! David Pipe will likely take the next race as well with Dell Arca who was really thrown-in the deep end LTO for his debut chase. It wont be easy for him as OR165 hurdler Saphir Du Rheu from the Paul Nicholls stable is having his chase debut in this race, but he has to know how to jump a fence.
We haven't seen The Paparrazi Kid in nearly a year, but he looked useful when we did. As such, he looks about 7lb well-in on his OR141 rating for the 2:40 at Newbury. There are several that look well treated: Lamool, Pendra, and Cantlow (if he can regain his form) and it is unfortunate that Rolling Aces is a non-runner as I thought he'd do well in this. Paul Nicholls sends his recent Sandown winner Sound Investment for this, but I thought that horse benefitted from a run that day and he may well struggle to hold NO BUTS who was having his first run for David Bridgwater. He's 6lb better-off today and will strip a lot fitter for having that run at Sandown on 8th November. At 8/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3) he looks generously priced as it is difficult to see him being out of the 1st-3 home.
At Doncaster, there is an interesting handicap chase at 2:30 over 2m3f. There has been a market move for the James Ewart trained Premier Grand Crus, and Ewart does well with chasers at Doncaster (7 wins from 18 runners). However, that has meant that the morning fav BIG WATER is now best-priced at 9/4 (from 6/4) and we have no doubt that this horse is in good form as he beat a useful field (with some NTO winners) on 2nd November. With the front-runner Billy Cuckoo likely to try and make-all, the race will be set up for BIG WATER who likes to come late in the day.
Doncaster 2:30 BIG WATER, £10 win @ 9/4 (Bet365, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes & Coral - all BOG)