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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 29 November 2014
The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury
Wilton Milan at 3/1
Tullyesker Hill at 10/1
No Buts at 6/1
If I'd had a better start to the season, then I'd have had the confidence to nominate at least No Buts as a wager (he was 8/1 when I wrote the blog) and would possibly have included Wilton Milan as well (he was trading at 9/2 at the time of writing the blog).
Onto today, and I've already looked at the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier this week.
I'm very happy to oppose the Irish challenger Djakadam who has not run beyond 2m5f and fell when under pressure at the Cheltenham Festival in the race won by Taquin De Seuil.
The 2nd-fav Many Clouds does not look to be leniently treated on OR151, and Fingal Bay could be well-in on OR153 if he's learned to jump a fence in the last 2 years. Smad Place looks interesting, as does last years runner-up Rocky Creek, but they both need to run career-bests to win this. The Druids Nephew looks held on his OR141 rating.
There is one horse tho' that stands out at the weights, and that is Cheltenham Festival winner MIDNIGHT PRAYER. Only 5 chase runs, he is still very unexposed and can win his seasonal debut (which he did last October) and then ran a cracker here at Newbury in December over 3-mile. He won the National Hunt Chase over 4-mile at the Festival beating the 12lb higher-rated Shotgun Paddy a neck at level weights. What is interesting is that Alan King has put 5lb claimer Tom Bellamy on and so the horse will only by carrying 10st 5lb. I'm expecting a big run and I'm already on at 25/1 for £5 eachway and £10 win.
There are host of horses from my alert list running today, as I'd expect on a great day of racing. As such, I can't hope to look at all their chances.
Midnight Appeal looks well treated for the 1:20 at Newbury. He's not a "proper" 3-mile chaser and this shorter trip of 2m6f & 110 yards will suit him, and if he can get back to his best form of last season (no reason why he shouldn't) he could be up to winning this. The Irish entry Dushrembramdt will not enjoy the soft ground based on known form and he'll need to have 10lb in-hand to win this. Listen Boy is more interesting, but he'll know he's been in a race today. I prefer the chance of Bertie Boru who is just a 7yo and comes here in top form and is the ride of Richard Johnson. This is not an easy race though, and Noble Legend - who has been rated OR135 - could easily win this off OR129 if it's a going day, but only the horse knows that as he's unpredictable. A tight affair, and the winner will come from Midnight Appeal, Bertie Boru, Listen Boy or Noble Legend. No wager recommended.
There are also supporting meetings at Newcastle, Towcester, and Bangor.
The Rehearsal Chase over 3-mile at Newcastle at 2:40 looks a cracker. Last years 1st - Hey Big Spender, and 2nd - Vintage Star, return to battle again on identical terms. They've both had a run and both have shown themselves to be as good, if not better, as ever. Personally, I think the soft ground this year swings the balance in favour of Vintage Star. One to consider is Tutchec, who was running a good race until hitting the 3rd-last fence LTO. Broadway Buffalo ran his best chase race yet LTO and improvement is expected - but will it? Odds of 9/2 leave no room for error, so he's not for me. Indian Castle is another with potential being just 6yo, but he ran poorly LTO and trainer Ian Williams is not in top form. I think Lie Forrit will struggle to beat Hey Big Spender today on 5lb worse terms. For me, the safest wager is VINTAGE STAR at 13/2 eachway.
Newcastle 2:40 VINTAGE STAR, £5 eachway @ 13/2 (Bet365 quarter-odds 1,2,3 & BOG)
Newbury 3:00 MIDNIGHT PRAYER, £5 eachway @ 28/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds 1,2,3, 4 & BOG)
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