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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 15 November 2014

Paddy Power Gold Cup - 15th November

What a cracking day of racing we have ahead of us.  I've been looking at the races at Cheltenham for a few days and think I've spotted a couple who have slipped under the radar of the tipsters.

There are a few from my alert list running in the feature race itself: Cantlow, Johns Spirit, Kapga De Cerisy, Indian Castle and Buywise.  Later in the afternoon Theatrical Star and Vivaldi Collonges are horses on my alert list.

For the Paddy Power Gold Cup at 2:30, Buywise heads the market at 7/1 alongside Present View. Both these horses are very progressive and come here on the back of a recent run. Of the pair I prefer Buywise as this horse has never stopped improving and could be exceptional. Coming into this race on a seasonal debut can be tough (not impossible) and so I'm overlooking Indian Castle today - but he's on a cracking handicap mark and he'll exploit that this season.  Johns Spirit is a tremendously game and consistent horse, and odds of 11/1 - and some bookies go 5-places eachway - are very generous. If you want an interest in the race, and if he's improved again on his recent win at Cheltenham, you cannot go wrong with an eachway wager at 11/1 with the race sponsors who go 5-places.

However, I'm looking at exploiting those 5-place bookies and going for a couple under the radar who could sneak the race itself. The first of those is Nicky Henderson's ERICHT who was 3rd behind Johns Spirit and Persian Snow at Cheltenham and has actually been dropped 1lb by the handicapper. That was only his 6th chase race and he's 20/1 with the sponsors and 22/1 with Bet365 who also go 5-places eachway.

My second under-the-radar horse is from my alert list - KAPGA DE CERISY. We know this horse goes well on a seasonal debut as he won his only race last season at Ascot when demolishing a good field. Venetia Williams has her horses bouncing at the moment and the trip today and the ground will suit this horse down to a tee. I think this horse has immense potential and his rating of OR148 could be very lenient. He's also 22/1 with the bookies.

The other race I've looked at in depth is the 1:50 at Cheltenham and this is a 3m3f handicap chase. Without a doubt, the race fav The Druids Nephew could be well ahead of the handicapper, but there are a couple in this race who will give him a lot to think about. The 10yo Cape Tribulation is one of them. Remember this horse was a proper Gold Cup candidate as an 8yo and he loves Cheltenham. He's been thrown a huge chance by the handicapper who's dropped him to OR146 and I can see him running a big race - especially as trainer Jefferson has given him a recent spin on the flat to perk him up as he usually needs a run to show his best form. At 14/1 he represents good eachway value.  However, this race usually goes to a horse no older than 8yo and the one horse that is improving and looking like this race will suit him is the bottom-weight with just 10st to carry MASTER NEO. There is a lot of dead-wood in this race in my opinion, and Master Neo brings together a small trainer with an improving young horse that is proven race fit having won only last Sunday. Odds of 12/1 look very fair for a horse running with just a 5lb penalty for that win.

Cheltenham 1:50 MASTER NEO, £5 eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Coral - quarter-odds a place 123)

Cheltenham 2:30 ERICHT, £5 eachway @ 22/1 (Bet365 and Paddy Power - quarter-odds a place 12345)
Cheltenham 2:30 KAPGA DE CERISY, £5 eachway @ 22/1 (Bet365 and Paddy Power - quarter-odds a place 12345)

That's £30 staked

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