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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 4 November 2014
Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter
Confidence is everything when it comes to have a wager.
Without confidence you never stake enough when the winners come and, if you are over-confident, you throw good money at dodgy chances.
Yesterday, I was lucky enough to find a couple of good winning opportunities in Invincible Ridge at Wolverhampton and Fox Appeal at Kempton. Invincible Ridge meerly had to run up to his Official Rating of OR75 to win the "seller" at 2:50 over 5-furlongs when having his first run for trainer Eric Alston. It was his first win since he was a 2yo in 2010 and, as a 3yo he was competitve off a rating of OR95. He's not anywhere near that now, but this summer he was running well enough to suggest he was up to winning off OR75.
As for Fox Appeal, he really gave me a scare when wandering after taking up the lead; even so, I'll take a dead-heat. Hopefully, Theatre Guide wont be hit hard by the handicapper as he really had no chance of winning this until Fox Appeal lost-the-plot after jumping the 2nd-last fence 3-lengths clear. I think, when he's at his peak, Fox Appeal is 155-159 and it may be that he's a horse who runs best when chasing another in defeat, as he doesn't like being in front.
A great day of racing ahead at Exeter, featuring the Haldon Gold Cup over 2m1f and 110 yards. This race has provided some surprising results in the past, not least last year when Cue Card was swept aside by Somersby. As I expect Colin Tizzard will have repeated last years preparation (which resulted in a win in the Betfair Chase for Cue Card on his subsequent outing) I reckon the horse will not be at his peak today. He'll need to be as there are a couple of 6yo's more than capable of producing an upset at the weights even if Cue Card was at peak fitness: Hinterland and BALDER SUCCES.
I like Hinterland, and he's on my alert list. When this pair met last December in the Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown, Hinterland won in the fashion of a very good chaser. Unfortunately, his next couple of runs proved nothing, and his last run at Aintree was a complete mystery. Nicholls says the horse is at his best when "very" fresh so if he is today then he'll take a great deal of beating with just 10st 4lb to carry. As such, BALDER SUCCES is giving Hinterland 10lb but he never stopped improving last season and won (in most convincing fashion) the race involving Hinterland at Aintree. I am fairly confident that BALDER SUCCES will prove the best 2-mile chaser in training this season and I'm already on him for the QM Champion Chase. So, if he's good enough to win that then he should be good enough to win today, so I'm taking the odds of 3/1 which is available with Hills, Ladbrokes, Corals and BetVictor.
Exeter 2:15 BALDER SUCCES, £10 win @ 3/1 (available generally)