We did well avoiding posting a selection yesterday, even tho’ I did favourably discuss the chances of THE KNOXS who won at “evens”. He gave supporters a scare tho’ with a bad error at the final fence that very nearly brought him down. That he was able to get back and win handsomely shows he is a potentially very good chaser. I also advised not to overlook LIGHTENING ROD in the same race, and he looked to hold every chance before also making a mistake at the final fence alongside THE KNOXS, but he came down. Provided this has not affected his confidence, he also looks a grand prospect.
The other horse mentioned, FRENCH TIES, found nothing after jumping the final flight while disputing the lead with the eventual winner.
Today, there are meetings at Carlisle and Ludlow, and a meeting at Punchestown in Ireland.
At Carlisle, the 2:40 – a 2 mile class 4 h’cap chase – has Duke Of Malfi the 4/1 fav. He’s not won at Carlisle in 4 visits, and has only won once from 9 starts on heavy going. As such, I don’t think he’ll enjoy conditions today. It is a class 4 race, so no world beaters in this – but one horse does come into the race with a semblance of form, that’s STORM SURGE. He has been off the track since last May, that’s 256 days. But, he handles soft and he needs a strongly run race, which he should get today courtesy of the fav. I reckon he could run a lot better than his 9/1 odds (Corals) in this.
At Ludlow, I like the look of the class 3 h’cap chase at 4:00. There are lot’s in this with question-marks, including the fav Shadow Dancer. He’s been on my radar a long time now but not gone on to win in ages. As such, I am siding with the 6yo from the in-form Charlie Longsdon stable RESTEZEN D’ARMOR. His odds are not fantastic tho’ at just 11/2.
Carlisle 2:40 STORM SURGE, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 (Corals, best odds guaranteed)
Ludlow 4:00 RESTEZEN D’AMOR, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Both firms go 5th odds a place 1-2-3
Total = 2pts staked
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Wednesday, 9 February 2011
THE KNOXS looks decent prospect
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Hi Sam you seem to know your racing, would you be interested in writing a guest post on cheltenhambetting.org.uk? We can give full credentials back to you and your blog?ReplyDelete
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