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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 13 February 2016

Poor day of racing for a Saturday

At the time of writing (Friday afternoon) although Newbury looks safe, the meeting at Warwick is in the balance. The races planned for Warwick look uninviting for wagering purposes so, even if the meeting goes ahead, it is unlikely to provide us with an opportunity.

Unfortunately, despite our selection A GOOD SKIN being supported from 8/1 in to 9/2, and doing just about everything right in the race, he met a very good horse in SILVERGROVE.  When you see races like that you have to take the positives, and they were that my form reading was pretty much spot on.  With an improving horse like Silvergrove it can be difficult to make a judgement as to just how good they are.  SILVERGROVE goes right onto my alert list, and could be just the type to win the opening day’s 3-mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival next month.

The feature race of the meeting is the Grade 2 Denman Chase over 3-mile, and last year this race was when Coneygree demonstrated his immense ability.  Readers of the blog will no doubt remember my “time to bet like a man” headline to the blog the next day as I recommended taking the 12/1 offered non-runner, no-bet for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Unfortunately, there is no Gold Cup potential in this year’s race. In fact, this race does not even look to be a wagering opportunity as, if Rocky Creek turns up in the form of his win in the Betbright Chase at Kempton last February, it will be “game over”.  The way Paul Nicholls horses have been running this week suggests that he’s finally got to the bottom of whatever problem there was at his stables (perhaps the recent flood at the stable was the perfect excuse to “deep-clean” and rid the yard of any bugs), and it looks unlikely that Rocky Creek will meet defeat.

It is much the same in the Grade 2 “Game Spirit” 2-mile chase when current Champion Chaser, Dodging Bullets makes a belated return to the track.   It is to the hurdles that we must look to find a wager (if there is one to be found).  However, I am not the best of judges when it comes to handicap hurdles, and so I am going to give today a miss altogether as a wagering day. 

1 comment:

  1. Greetings WL this is Jake from Managed Risk. Hope all is well as I have been following your blog during my absence. I am back with a new address http://maximumthree.blogspot.com please drop by and say hello.

    All the best! Jake