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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 26 February 2016

Tonights gonna be a good night

We have an interesting day of racing today with meetings at Exeter and Warwick.
At Exeter we have the “Devon National” run over nearly 3m7f at 3:55pm and, being run on soft ground, it will take some staying.  From my alert list, there is Saroque who has been in good form all season, especially when winning here on his seasonal debut over 3-mile on soft ground.  He showed that win was no fluke with a strong effort to be 5th in what was a high-class and competitive “Rehearsal” Chase at Newcastle in November, however, I feel this trip may be too long for him today.
One in the race who looks interesting is the 8yo ALBEROBELLO who had a “pipe-opener” earlier this month after a long break and may have been aimed at this race. He handles heavy ground, so the soft ground won’t slow him down, and he’s run well at Exeter before. He looks likely to go well off OR125.  Another 8yo that I like the look of is Nail’M who was 2nd here over C&D in early December (race won by Woodford County).  He probably came out too quick when pulling-up as the fav in the North Yorkshire marathon run at Catterick LTO, but he’s been given a good rest for this race and he will not lack stamina for the trip.
Both of these horses are best-priced at 7/1 and I cannot split them.
At Warwick there is a decent 3-mile, Class 3 handicap chase at 4:15pm and one from my alert list runs in this: WHAT A GOOD NIGHT. He won over 3-mile at Bangor in November, and then he was my selection in the Warwick “Classic” over 3m5f in January and I thought he was going well until he was badly hampered by a faller just as the race was becoming interesting, and he lost a lot of ground.  His jockey chose to pull-up which probably saved him from an exhausting slog over the final mile, and he’s been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for today’s race which is a bonus.  I think As De Fer is a false favourite as he benefitted from the fall of likely winner Stilletto LTO. As such, I think this race looks fairly weak for the grade, nothing like as competitive as the field he faced LTO, and WHAT A GOOD NIGHT looks good value at 7/1.
I want to try and get a winner on the board, but I also want to try and preserve the funds with Cheltenham around the corner. So it’s an eachway wager.

Warwick 4:15pm - WHAT A GOOD NIGHT, £5 eachway AND £5 win @ 7/1  (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total staked = £15

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