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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 12 February 2016

Something for the weekend

We have a racing day!
There are 2 good meetings at Kempton (good-to-soft in places, generally soft) and Wetherby (heavy, soft in places) and I have already informed those on the email list (requires a donation of £10 a month) last night of today’s wager.

Before I go onto the wager recommended last night, there is an interesting 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at Wetherby at 4:10pm. The 7yo Voyage A New York has slipped to OR110 (from OR127) after a string of poor efforts following his defeat on none-other than Wakanda in a novice chase over 3-mile last February. Clearly, he was flattered by that effort as Wakanda should have won that by a long way but his jockey didn’t push-on when left in the lead and allowed Voyage A New York to get upsides and beat him in a sprint finish. This race will take some getting on the heavy ground and there are a few in this whose stamina is debateable; the likes of Jack Steel, Epic Warrior and Glen Countess.  If the 8yo Goodtoknow was on a going day then he’d be worth considering off OR122 as he’s won over 3-mile on heavy ground at Bangor (Dec 2013)and he stays the trip well – it is just that he seems one-paced and may need the race to be presented to him.

To me, this race is all about the top-two in the handicap: Ballyoliver and King Of the Wolds; and we looked at this pair when they met last November in the race won by Vintage Star (those on the email list were on this 7/2 winner at 12/1). At his peak, Ballyoliver was rated OR134 (that was after his latest win off OR127 in Nov 2014), and he’s now only slipped back to OR127 despite running 7 times since that race without ever looking like winning.  The conditions today will suit him, but I think this 12yo will fill only one of the places today. King Of The Wolds is a horse that I have followed some years, since his novice chase days. He’s won here at Wetherby on heavy ground over hurdles, and his best recent performance was when winning at Ayr last March over 3-miles on soft ground.  He carried 11st 12lb that day, as he does today; so weight isn’t a burden to him. What he doesn’t do is stay more than 3-miles, so today’s trip and ground are perfect for him.  In the circumstances, the 3/1 offered by Paddy Power looks value (everyone else is at 11/4), as he looks more of a 2/1 chance to me in this race.

When I sent out my email (to those who have donated) last night, it was because in the Kempton 3:50pm – a 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase – the Tom George trained A GOOD SKIN was entered to run, and at the generous odds of 8/1.  We were on this horse when he ran 3rd in the “Badger” handicap chase at Wincanton last November.  That day he looked like winning at the 2nd-last but just ran out of steam. He looked extremely well-handicapped that day, yet the handicapper has dropped him 2lbs since!  He was unsuited by the heavy ground at Cheltenham LTO, and todays ground will suit him well, as will jumping right-handed at Kempton. There have been some non-runners since the email went out (Doing fine and Standing Ovation) so the best odds available are now only 6/1.  He won’t have it all his own way as another 7yo, Silvergrove, is the 11/4 fav and he will not be lacking stamina.  However, he’s been raised 6lb for his LTO win, and this looks a step up in class for him.  Also, Ned Stark, trained by Alan King and is one who looked very good when winning last year at Wetherby as a novice is the 2nd-fav; but he’s yet to live-up to that reputation and his odds do not represent value.  Personally, I’d have Silvergrove and A GOOD SKIN as joint-favs at 7/2 which suggests that the odds of 6/1 are still value.

As I advised my donators by email at 8/1 last night, those are the odds which I’m using to value the wager; but 6/1 is still available and I consider that is still value.

Kempton 3:50pm – A GOOD SKIN, £5 eachway AND £5 win @ 8/1

Total staked = £15

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