When luck is against you, then there is little you can do
but keep plugging on.
Yesterday’s selection STILLETTO, took up the running with
half-a-mile to run, and looked set to stay-on and win at attractive odds but,
unfortunately, he stumbled on landing at the 3rd-last fence and
couldn’t recover his feet.
It was particularly galling as I’d managed to obtain 7/1
on the exchanges and was on for my maximum personal wager - £40 win.
Basically, the only way I could see him losing was if he
didn’t finish! The result showed that I’d
read the race well, with Quite By Chance and Gores Island filling the 2nd
and 3rd places, but neither ever looked like winning, as I’d
expected. Eventual winner As De Fer was matched at 999 on the exchanges when
looking beaten, but was virtually presented the race when STILLETTO fell.
Onwards and upwards they say and, with horseracing,
that’s the only attitude to have.
There are a couple of jump race meetings at Catterick and
Chepstow today, and I have a few from my alert list running. At Catterick in
the 2m3f Class 3 handicap chase at 4:00pm, one of my old alert list horses Cloudy Joker is running. He took a long
time to come back to full fitness and recover his novice chase form of 2013-14
and, as such, I removed him from the alert list yet since then he has won his
last two races here at Catterick. He’s
up to a rating of OR125, but is still 3lbs below his all-time high of OR128 to
which he was raised after winning here in January 2014. On the face of it, he looks well-treated, and
his most obvious rivals look to need to improve significantly to beat him
today. While we should see an improved
performance from The Cobbler Swayne
over this trip – 2m5f possibly too far LTO – he still has to show his revised
rating of OR122 (up 16lb for his winning chase debut) is within his scope. And Specials Wells hasn’t yet shown he has
the aptitude to be a chaser yet in his previous 3 chase races. A greater
challenge to Cloudy Joker may come
from the 10yo Rear Admiral, who has
a 6lb “pull” for a 2-length beating on their meeting LTO. As such, current odds
of 4/1 about Cloudy Joker look fair
as, based on his novice chase form of 2013-14, he could possibly end up rated
130+.
At the Chepstow meeting, there are a couple of horses
from my alert list running. In the
1:40pm, which is a Class 4 novice hurdle over 2-mile, there is Nansaroy (best odds 4/1) who faces just
4 rivals. He looks to be facing a tough task at level-weights with the fav
Robin Of Locksley, who looked decent when winning LTO over 2m4f on heavy
ground. As such, trainer Evan Williams has put-up 7lb claimer Lewis Gordon, but
I’m never happy wagering on horses ridden by claimers who aren’t known to me.
In the next at Chepstow at 2:10pm there is Baltimore Rock in the Class 4 Novice
Chase over 2-mile. He won his chase
debut well, when trained by David Pipe, on 29th December but – for some
unknown reason – his owner has moved him to Neil Mulholland. I reckon this 7yo
could be a 150+ chaser in the making and, while he’s giving 6lb to all his
rival today, he should be able to beat his main dangers of Oscar Sunset and
Lockstockandbarrel. The latter was with
Willie Mullins in Ireland last season and now races from Jonjo O’Neills
stable. He’s well bred, his dam is a
half-sister to top staying chaser Hey Big Spender and, being by Flemensfirth,
he will relish the mud today. He just
may find this 2-mile trip a bit on the short side.
I’m tempted by the 4/1 available on Cloudy Joker (he’s
9/2 with Stan James) but Don McCains horses can be a bit unpredictable when it
comes to keeping their form. He’s not
one to put the housekeeping on, but let’s hope he can recover yesterday’s
losses.
Selection
Catterick 4:00pm CLOUDY JOKER, £10 win @ 4/1 (generally
available)
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