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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 5 February 2016

Playing the law of averages

When luck is against you, then there is little you can do but keep plugging on.
Yesterday’s selection STILLETTO, took up the running with half-a-mile to run, and looked set to stay-on and win at attractive odds but, unfortunately, he stumbled on landing at the 3rd-last fence and couldn’t recover his feet.
It was particularly galling as I’d managed to obtain 7/1 on the exchanges and was on for my maximum personal wager - £40 win.
Basically, the only way I could see him losing was if he didn’t finish!  The result showed that I’d read the race well, with Quite By Chance and Gores Island filling the 2nd and 3rd places, but neither ever looked like winning, as I’d expected. Eventual winner As De Fer was matched at 999 on the exchanges when looking beaten, but was virtually presented the race when STILLETTO fell.

Onwards and upwards they say and, with horseracing, that’s the only attitude to have.

There are a couple of jump race meetings at Catterick and Chepstow today, and I have a few from my alert list running. At Catterick in the 2m3f Class 3 handicap chase at 4:00pm, one of my old alert list horses Cloudy Joker is running. He took a long time to come back to full fitness and recover his novice chase form of 2013-14 and, as such, I removed him from the alert list yet since then he has won his last two races here at Catterick.  He’s up to a rating of OR125, but is still 3lbs below his all-time high of OR128 to which he was raised after winning here in January 2014.  On the face of it, he looks well-treated, and his most obvious rivals look to need to improve significantly to beat him today.  While we should see an improved performance from The Cobbler Swayne over this trip – 2m5f possibly too far LTO – he still has to show his revised rating of OR122 (up 16lb for his winning chase debut) is within his scope. And Specials Wells hasn’t yet shown he has the aptitude to be a chaser yet in his previous 3 chase races. A greater challenge to Cloudy Joker may come from the 10yo Rear Admiral, who has a 6lb “pull” for a 2-length beating on their meeting LTO. As such, current odds of 4/1 about Cloudy Joker look fair as, based on his novice chase form of 2013-14, he could possibly end up rated 130+.

At the Chepstow meeting, there are a couple of horses from my alert list running.  In the 1:40pm, which is a Class 4 novice hurdle over 2-mile, there is Nansaroy (best odds 4/1) who faces just 4 rivals. He looks to be facing a tough task at level-weights with the fav Robin Of Locksley, who looked decent when winning LTO over 2m4f on heavy ground. As such, trainer Evan Williams has put-up 7lb claimer Lewis Gordon, but I’m never happy wagering on horses ridden by claimers who aren’t known to me.

In the next at Chepstow at 2:10pm there is Baltimore Rock in the Class 4 Novice Chase over 2-mile.  He won his chase debut well, when trained by David Pipe, on 29th December but – for some unknown reason – his owner has moved him to Neil Mulholland. I reckon this 7yo could be a 150+ chaser in the making and, while he’s giving 6lb to all his rival today, he should be able to beat his main dangers of Oscar Sunset and Lockstockandbarrel.  The latter was with Willie Mullins in Ireland last season and now races from Jonjo O’Neills stable.  He’s well bred, his dam is a half-sister to top staying chaser Hey Big Spender and, being by Flemensfirth, he will relish the mud today.  He just may find this 2-mile trip a bit on the short side.

I’m tempted by the 4/1 available on Cloudy Joker (he’s 9/2 with Stan James) but Don McCains horses can be a bit unpredictable when it comes to keeping their form.  He’s not one to put the housekeeping on, but let’s hope he can recover yesterday’s losses.


Catterick 4:00pm CLOUDY JOKER, £10 win @ 4/1 (generally available)

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