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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 12 March 2016

Calm before the storm

The final Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival starts, and we have 3 jump race meetings at Ayr, Chepstow and Sandown: and it's at Sandown where the day's feature race is being run - the Imperial Cup (handicap) Hurdle.

Hurdle races are not my thing, especially 2-mile handicap hurdle races and I much prefer hurdles over 2m5f or more.  So I'm giving this race a swerve and looking at the handicap chases on the same card.  At 2:35pm there is a Class 3 handicap chase over 3-mile which looks interesting. The last time he ran we were on Bertie Boru who looked very well handicapped on old form. He is a bit of a monkey as he drops himself out the back early then stays on strong - if he's in the right mind! That is exactly the way he won for the last time, back in November 2014 at Newbury when ridden by Richard Johnson who is in the saddle today. He was rated OR135 after that and runs off OR128 today. The current fav Benenden has gone up 10lb in the ratings to OR125 for a facile win LTO over 3-mile, but that looks an over-reaction by the handicapper. Relax was going well Last week in the Veteran's Chase won by Shotavodka till unseating his rider, and he's a C&D winner too. He will set a strong pace out from on a track that does suit his front-running style, but it may also be just the pace Bertie Boru needs to come good. Mosspark was 2nd in this last year, but came into the race in good form then.  This season he's only had one run last November when disappointing. And the winner last year, Financial Climate, hasn't come near repeating that form since, and he's racing off 6lb higher now from OR128.  The novice Dawson City looks very exciting judged on his good 2nd to Golden Chieftain at Wincanton.  The winner was running well and in command when coming down NTO, and DAWSON CITY could be a lot better than his OR129 rating. As the 7yo is also the youngest in the race, he has the most potential to find improvement today, and odds of 15/2 look very fair, as I think he should be joint fav with Relax on 4/1. He certainly would be if he were with a headline trainer and not with Polly Gundry.  But I've no concerns on that score, as I know the horse will come here in possibly the best condition of any in the race.

Value looks thin on the ground at both Ayr and Chepstow and I'm sticking with DAWSON CITY as my only advised wager of the day.

Sandown 2:35pm DAWSON CITY, £5 win @ £5 eachway @ 15/2 (Corals and Bet365 for quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)

1 comment:

  1. The selection was unlucky to be impeded by the loose horse on the run-up to the final fence which cost him momentum, but he would not have beaten the winner. Good run by DAWSON CITY and when his jumping improves so will his rating.