Yesterday was
a disappointing day for me at Cheltenham, with one of my strongest selections
of the week Bristol De Mai, being beaten into 2nd by the LTO faller
Black Hercules.
From thereon,
the day went downhill, with Taquin Du Seuil not showing the improvement I
expected following his promising comeback run.
Then Saphin Du
Rheu ran like a horse completely out of love for the game, being under pressure
going up the hill over a mile from the finish and even being beaten by his
stablemate.
There was a course
gamble on my next selection Stilletto from 11/1 to 11/2 joint-fav, but he fell
at the 3rd fence. He’s worth following next-time-out.
The final race
of the day produced my best result with both selections A GOOD SKIN and
SILVERGROVE finishing in the places, but they were beaten by the Irish plot
horse Cause Of Causes. In my narrative I mentioned 5 horses, and 4 of them
filled the 1st-4 places.
The
performances of the day were from VAUTOUR and THISTLECRACK and the combined
odds of 3/1 for the double looked (in hindsight) as the best value of the day
as both horses never looked like being beat.
VAUTOUR looked like he was capable of winning todays Gold Cup, putting
in a 170+ performance; and THISTLECRACK dominated his race so much it is likely
owners will still to hurdles and scoop all the leading races next season. Spare a thought for the last horse to beat
Thistlecrack – Killultagh Vic who has missed Cheltenham and resides in the
Mullins stable.
This is not a
good festival for me and, on reflection, I’m spreading my resources too thin by
trying to assess each race in turn. As such, I’m ignoring todays 3 opening hurdle
races as they are outside my comfort zone.
3:30pm
Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3-miles and 2½ furlongs)
15 of the
last 17 winners had already won a race that season;
14 of the
last 15 winners were in the 1st-3 in the betting (exception being Lord
Windermere @ 20/1);
No winner aged 10yo or older since
Cool Dawn (aged 10yo) won in 1998 (and he was a 25/1 outsider) and before that
Cool Ground (also 25/1) who was also a 10yo when winning in 1992.
This horse
is usually won by the best horse in the race, and there are rarely hard-luck
stories.
I know readers of this will very likely have already formed an opinion on which horse they will be supporting in the Gold Cup. However, this is a race in which recent form is very important, and the horse with the very best recent form is CUE CARD. He beat LTO at Kempton non-other than Vautour who romped home yesterday looking every inch a 170+ horse. CUE CARD has run to 170+ six times in his career over fences, with two of those performances this season. The only doubt is will he stay this slightly longer trip, but for that we are able to obtain odds of 4/1. Djakadam has had an interrupted preparation (suffered a deep cut requiring many stitches when he fell LTO), and Don Cossack ran like a non-stayer in my opinion when falling at Kempton 2-out in the race won by Cue Card. Don Poli is the fly in the ointment as he’s done nothing wrong this season, but he will need to improve about 15lb on what we’ve seen. Smad Place is another who will stay the trip but this will be his 6th race at the Festival and he’s yet to win here. I just cannot see him winning this. Based on this years’ form, CUE CARD should be the 9/4 fav.
I know readers of this will very likely have already formed an opinion on which horse they will be supporting in the Gold Cup. However, this is a race in which recent form is very important, and the horse with the very best recent form is CUE CARD. He beat LTO at Kempton non-other than Vautour who romped home yesterday looking every inch a 170+ horse. CUE CARD has run to 170+ six times in his career over fences, with two of those performances this season. The only doubt is will he stay this slightly longer trip, but for that we are able to obtain odds of 4/1. Djakadam has had an interrupted preparation (suffered a deep cut requiring many stitches when he fell LTO), and Don Cossack ran like a non-stayer in my opinion when falling at Kempton 2-out in the race won by Cue Card. Don Poli is the fly in the ointment as he’s done nothing wrong this season, but he will need to improve about 15lb on what we’ve seen. Smad Place is another who will stay the trip but this will be his 6th race at the Festival and he’s yet to win here. I just cannot see him winning this. Based on this years’ form, CUE CARD should be the 9/4 fav.
Selection
CUE CARD,
£20 win @ 4/1 available generally.
4:10pm Foxhunter Cup Chase (3-miles and 2½ furlongs)
For this
race you need to look for a LTO winner that is no older than 10yo and, of the 9
that meet those criteria, I like the chance of MENDIP EXPRESS. On his day he is
a 145+ chaser like when he won over C&D in January 2014 carrying 11st7lb,
and when 2nd at Aintree in the Becher Chase in December 2014. He ran
here last year in the handicap chase on the opening day off OR148 when he
looked like being involved but the ground that day (and the pace of the field)
were too quick for him. This field is nowhere near as competitive and if he can
run near that form today then he will take some beating. Odds of 12/1 look good
eachway value as he looks to have only the fav On The Fringe to beat based on
known form, and that horse has to show he still has the ability to repeat last
years win now that he’s an 11yo.
Selection
MENDIP EXPRESS, £5 eachway @ 12/1 (available generally)
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