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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday, 5 November 2016

Badger day at Wincanton

Racing today looks a very difficult day for a punter like me who wants to avoid placing wagers on horses at odds under 9/4.  The small fields suggest it could be a day for some odd results, but also some short-priced favs winning as well.

As I expected, the "Badger" handicap chase at Wincanton has cut up and only 11 go to post, and for me it is very difficult to look beyond the Paul Nicholls trained pair who head the market.  As I wrote earlier this week, Southfield Theatre looks very tempting running off OR147 as I reckon he's 155+ and we know he goes on this sort of ground as he ran a cracker at the Cheltenham Festival when a hurdler. The one that may upset the Nicholls pair is Ziga Boy who is apparently bouncing at home - but he did take a couple of runs to get race fit last season, that and he never looked at home going  right-handed at Kempton in his last couple of races. As such, 100/30 looks too short for Southfield Theatre, and ould be looking for 4/1 as the minimum.

I could not see anything worth a wager at Aintree where a lot of trainers have sent their chasers hurdling to get a run in, when reviewing last night.  But there has been a lot of overnight rain in Liverpool and the ground may be a bit on the soft side. 

The Class 2 handicap chase over 2m3f at 3:10pm looks an interesting race as the 5yo Orbasa sent by Paul Nicholls makes his seasonal debut. This trip should suit him, and I reckon OR135 underrates him. If there is some juice in the ground it will not upset him either. I reckon both Some Buckle and Thomas Brown want 3-mile and Splash Of Ginge is well exposed and will need a hefty dose of luck to win this. Princeton Royale is one not to overlook as he has had a recent run and comes here in good form. He might also find this trip a shade to tight. At odds of 4/1 ORBASA looks value as he could be more like 5/2 at the off. 

I've taken a look at Kelso where there are a couple of suitable races.  
In the 2:20 at Kelso, the topweight NO NO MAC looks the most likely winner.  Last night when I sent an early email to those on my list, his odds were 3/1 which were too short.  I was hoping there would be a move for either Un Noble  or Shimla Dawn from which we could take advantage and, sure enough, it has happened. With Un Noble at 3/1 we now have No No Mac at 4/1 with several firms.

This could be a day for the short-priced horses so I am going to have an eachway double on this pair.

Kelso 2:20 - NO NO MAC, £5 win @ 4/1 (Bet Victor and Betfred)
Aintree 3:10 - ORBASA, £5 win @ 4/1 (Bet Victor, and Betfred plus others)
AND a £5 eachway double on this pair
(5th odds a place 1,2 3 on Orbasa, and quarter-odds a place 1,2 on No No Mac) 

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