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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 3 November 2016

Thursday 3rd Nov 2016

We have 3 meetings today at Musselburgh, Market Rasen and Newbury and you would think finding a wager would be fairly easy - but there are slim pickings on the value front.

At Musselburgh the 2m3f Class 3 handicap chase at 3:30pm is one that is on my radar, but the field this year all look much the same without anything standing out.

At Market Rasen, there is a very interesting (Listed) Mares chase over a few yards short of 3-miles at 2:45pm and, on the face of it, the race is between the two market leaders La Vaticane and Desert Queen, but a combination of the trip and that neither are reliable makes me feel that the winner of this 6-runner race is amongst the others.
Kalane is on my alert list, and this underrated mare is not short of ability and - had she still been trained by Charlie Longsdon then she would be seriously considered.  However, she is now with her owner Amy Murphy who has recently embarked on a training career and the runners she has been sending to the track in the past 14-days do not appear to be fit enough. As such, the mare with the potential to take advantage is the consistent Cresswell Breeze, who looks to be crying-out for this 3-mile trip. Unfortunately, I reckon the market has her about right at 5/1 and there is not value in those odds.    
Newbury stages interesting meeting with a Class 3 handicap chase at 2:00pm run over 2m4f. 
Only 8 runners go to post, but they are headed by Generous Ransom who has his first run for Phil Hobbs today (was with Nick Gifford) and is on a rating 15lb below his peak after running 3rd to Irish Cavalier at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival. If he is anywhere near back to his best, then he will win this doing cartwheels, but that is reflected in his odds of 5/4.  So, is he back to his best?
Why is Minella On Line 2nd-fav? I cannot see how his form justifies that position. Ditto Forever My Friend, who has finally hit a rich vein of form after 30-odd chase races with two wins on the bounce - and he has been raised 20lb in the handicap as a consequence. 
Nicky Henderson's Ericht is a horse I know well, and who has cost me a lot of money. When he gets it right he is a 140+ chaser, but so often he flatters to deceive. Catching him fresh may be the time to do it, but he is too unreliable even for his talent and lenient rating to make as a selection.
Cadoudoff is on my alert list and he is (for sure) better than his OR130 rating.  He is on my alert list for his win at Huntingdon last January over 2m4f on soft ground when he looked a potential 140+ chaser. He then ran in a couple of hurdle races, before returning to chasing over 3-miles which he did not stay. As such, I think he is under the radar of many punters today especially as trainer Charlie Longsdon has not had a winner since Coologue at Cheltenham nearly two weeks ago. He's had plenty of 2nd's and 3rd's though - so he has his stable fit, but luck isn't going his way. At odds of 10/1, CADOUDOFF looks a little bit of value as an eachway wager in a race with not much depth to it. Sandy Beach is also on my alert list, but he needs soft ground (and to improve his jumping).
This race hangs on the fav Generous Ransom and, whatever he does this season, I think he will need todays run as he has always improved for his seasonal debut over the past 3 seasons. As such, I cannot ignore the odds of 10/1 on CADOUDOFF.

Newbury 2:00pm CADOUDOFF, £5 eachway @ 10/1 (Bet Victor and Ladbrokes, 5th odds a place 1 2 3)

Unfortunately, the 10/1 available at 7:30am (went I sent out this blog to those on the email list) has now gone. Odds of 8/1 are available generally and, as I reckon CADOUDOFF is a 5/1 chance, that still represents a touch of value.

Many thanks to those who have renewed for November.

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