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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 10 November 2016

VALADOM wins @ 7/1 (advised at 8/1)

Nice one..!!

Getting the email is great as I wouldn't think to look on the blog each day.
Great call there 
Well done again, cracking start to the season

Just a selection of some of the responses from those on my email list for the blog - all of whom were able to obtain 8/1 or more from the bookies (and there was plenty of 12.50+ available on the exchanges in the hour before the race started) about yesterdays winning advice on sole selection VALADOM.

As expected, VALADOM was prominently ridden and effectively made-all to win at an SP of 7/1. The horse took advantage of its fitness and fair rating but, unless it finds some improvement, it may struggle to win again soon. 
I was of the opinion that Ballykan was in the handicappers grip and would struggle to improve for the increase in trip and I was spot on. I'm sure both Ziga Boy and Sego Success will come on for the run, and I was impressed with the effort of Sego Success who looks very well handicapped on OR141. On softer ground he should be capable of running over 8lb better than this rating.

Thursday brings us another couple of jump race meetings at Ludlow and Towcester, and there is a Class 3 handicap chase over 3-mile at Ludlow.  I think the early fav Adam Du Breteau trained by Jonjo O'Neill is vulnerable.  He should be up to his revised rating of OR125 but it's doubtful that he is better than it yet.  I cannot see the 10yo Big Casino following up his LTO win, and By The Boardwalk was exposed in a tough race LTO. The main opposition to the fav will likely come from the 8yo Still Believing who has won at Ludlow several times, stays the trip and will handle the ground. However, she is no value at 4/1 as the mare has hovered around OR112-116 over her 14-race chasing history and she will need luck on her side. This does look a weak Class 3 chase, and with question-marks over the remainder of the field, it is no surprise to see the 6yo Adam Du Breteau as the 3/1 fav and he may well justify those odds if his jumping has improved since he last raced. I'm sure if his trainer had placed a recent winner this horse would be at odds around 9/4 or slightly shorter. 

There is a tight little 6-runner Class 3 handicap chase over 2m6f at Towcester, but the betting market looks covered with little value to be had.

Looking forward, we have the re-named Bet Victor Chase meeting at Cheltenham on Saturday, and what a cracker of  race - and meeting - it looks.  I am planning to be there, so early emails should be expected. It takes a special horse to carry over 11st to win this 2m4f chase and on first glance I cannot see that ability in those allotted over 11st. Don't bother considering any horse aged 9yo or older at this entire meeting - they have a terrible record.  This is a weekend for young horses to come of age, and even 8yo's struggle to win the Bet Victor Chase.  One that jumps out at me is an old fav of this blog, Stilletto. Be sure to keep him on your side as he has been on my shortlist for this race since February. However, he has left the Paul Nicholls stable since he last raced, is that a good or a bad thing? Stilletto was 25/1 on Wednesday, but is now 16/1 at best. Nicholls has a full hand with 4 runners, and they are all of interest. If As De Mee showed his full potential (hinted at when 2nd at Sandown in February) his rating of OR139 could be a gift. And then there is the rain to consider!
No wager today.

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