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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 4 November 2016

Blog for Friday 4th Nov 2016

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The selection yesterday, Cadoudoff, was the subject of a major gamble from 10/1 to 7/2 (thanks to a couple of non-runners), and I'm sure he'd have gone close had he not fallen.  Those are the risks of jump racing, but at least we know we were on a 7/2 chance at odds of 10/1 - and if we continue in this vein then (in the long run) we will remain in profit.  What I was very right about was my assessment of the fav Generous Ransom who, even with only 5 rivals never looked like justifying his odds of 11/10. Lots of fingers burnt on this one, but not ours, in fact we may have been laying!

I was also right to have eventual winner Sandy Beach on my alert list - which I alerted readers of the blog to.  Every season I wonder whether I should just wager on my alert list runners blind, with a level stake, because winners from my alert list just keep on coming. I knew Sandy Beach had potential but this looked a tough seasonal debut.

The race was transformed at the 12th fence when (before it) Sandy Beach went from looking like he was struggling to producing the best jump of the race taking him from last place and into the lead.  Our selection Cadoudoff fell at that fence, when he too seemed to be going very easily. There were some awkward looking jumps from Sandy Beach, but he does possess some engine as he very quickly had his remaining rivals toiling and hard at work to keep up.   If I'm right about Sandy Beach, he should be able to defy a penalty - and he is yet another winner from the Tizzard stable.  If there is one thing that I am good at it is spotting talented future chasers, and I think Sandy Beach could get into the high 140's this season. Cadoudoff is normally a safe jumper of a fence, so he remains on the alert list.

Looking towards Friday, the "good" ground and lack of rain has had a devastating effect on the number of runners at the three meetings at Warwick, Hexham and Fontwell, to the point were it really isn't worth considering the form as there is no value to be had.  Shame is that Hexham has good-to-soft ground and plenty of runners, but no races of Class 3 or better, and in this game you need to specialise and I stick to races no lower in grade than Class 3.

Before I leave Fridays meetings, a word looking towards the future.  Some of you will know that, like many jump racing fans, I have a soft spot for the Grand National run at Aintree in April.  I like to approach the race with a "portfolio" of runners: hopefully with some wagers placed at fancy prices.  At Warwick in the 3m2f novice hurdle at 1:25pm there is a runner entered called SILVERGROVE.  Some of you will know that I wagered on Silvergrove when he last ran at the Cheltenham Festival in March, where he was 3rd in the 3m2f Kim Muir Handicap Chase. I think this horse will win a major staying handicap this season and the race his connections are aiming him at is the Grand National.  Currently you can get 80/1 about Silvergrove with Bet365 for the National and, should he line up for the race next April, he will likely be a 16/1 chance or shorter. I'd say he's worth a small eachway wager.  At this point I would give you the current odds about A Good Skin (who I also think is a potential National winner), but he isn't even quoted on any of the bookies lists for the race.

Looking at Saturday "Badger" handicap at Wincanton, It is very difficult to get away from the Paul Nicholls pair of Southfield Theatre and Present Man, and of the pair I really like Southfield Theatre who I think was underrated by punters last year. However, after the Ascot handicap run last Saturday, I wrote on the blog (see Sunday's post) that I thought the horse to take from that race was the Colin Tizzard trained Fourth Act

If he runs on Saturday, and it could be a big ask, then Fourth Act has to be considered. The worry is that the race, which is usually run at a strong gallop, may be too quick for him and - as he did last week - he will be staying on in the final half-mile which may be too late to win.  However, he is at the attractive odds of 16/1 and we know he stays the trip, he's race-fit, and he's well handicapped as he runs off the same mark OR137 as last week. The question is will he line-up for the start of this race and, even if he does, how many rivals will he have? He could easily not be declared, in which case a speculative wager now would be lost; or (if declared) he may have less than 10 rivals and the odds about him will be a lot shorter but you would have a guaranteed run.  

There is racing at Aintree (good ground) and Kelso (good), as well as Wincanton (good) and although the races being staged look great, the ground could well see much reduced entry numbers going to post, and that will seriously affect the value on offer. However, as with Sandy Beach who went off at 9/1 in a 6-runner race and won in the style of an odds-on chance, if you are in the know then you can spot the value. We will await the issue of the declarations later today. 

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